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Economic Sentiment Indicator edged up in both the EU and the Eurozone in June; Eurozone Business Climate Indicator also rises
By Finfacts Team
Jul 29, 2010 - 10:28:52 AM
The Economic Sentiment Indicator
edged up in both the EU and the Eurozone in July, while the Eurozone Business Climate
Indicator also rose.
In July, the Economic
Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged up to 102.2 (by 1.9
points) in the EU and to 101.3 (by 2.3 points) in the
Eurozone. These results are strongly influenced by
markedly positive readings in Germany. The
majority of Member States reported improvements in
sentiment. Among the largest Member States, Germany
registered the most significant increase (+4.0),
followed by France (+2.6), Poland (+1.9) and Italy
(+1.7). Improvements were less pronounced in the UK
(+1.4) and the Netherlands (+1.2). In contrast,
sentiment declined in Spain (-2.2).
Sentiment in industry,
which increased by 2 points in both regions, was the
main contributor to the overall improvement. Most
respondents in this sector reported substantial
improvements in their order books.
However, managers
were cautious on their production expectations. The
quarterly manufacturing survey indicates an increase in
capacity utilisation. It now stands at about 77% in both
the EU and the Eurozone, though still below the long
term average (81%).
As indicated in the
flash estimate released earlier, confidence among
consumers regained momentum (+3 in the Eurozone and +1
in the EU). More optimism about the general economic
situation and very significant easing unemployment fears
in Germany contributed to the overall improvement.
Confidence in services improved by 2 points in the EU
and the Eurozone, driven by brighter assessments of
demand and the business situation over the past 3
months. Sentiment in the retail sector increased by 2
points in the euro area and by 4 points in the EU,
mainly owing to upbeat business expectations in the UK
and in Germany. Sentiment in construction remained
broadly unchanged in both regions.
Confidence in financial
services - - not included in the ESI - - recorded the second
significant drop in a row in the EU (-6), driven mainly
by a sharply negative assessment of expected demand. In
the euro area the confidence continued to increase (+3).
Business Climate
In July, the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for
the Eurozone picked up after the pause observed in June. The improvement in the
indicator suggests that economic activity in industry will continue to recover
in the coming months, although it has still some way to go to reach its
pre-crisis level.
Managers in industry were upbeat about their
order books and production trend observed in recent months. They were
also more optimistic about their export order books. Meanwhile, managers'
assessment of their stocks of finished products remained unchanged, and
their production expectations were cautious.