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News : EU Economy Last Updated: Jul 29, 2010 - 2:56:58 PM


Economic Sentiment Indicator edged up in both the EU and the Eurozone in June; Eurozone Business Climate Indicator also rises
By Finfacts Team
Jul 29, 2010 - 10:28:52 AM

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The Economic Sentiment Indicator edged up in both the EU and the Eurozone in July, while the Eurozone Business Climate Indicator also rose.

In July, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged up to 102.2 (by 1.9 points) in the EU and to 101.3 (by 2.3 points) in the Eurozone. These results are strongly influenced by markedly positive readings in Germany. The majority of Member States reported improvements in sentiment. Among the largest Member States, Germany registered the most significant increase (+4.0), followed by France (+2.6), Poland (+1.9) and Italy (+1.7). Improvements were less pronounced in the UK (+1.4) and the Netherlands (+1.2). In contrast, sentiment declined in Spain (-2.2). Sentiment in industry, which increased by 2 points in both regions, was the main contributor to the overall improvement. Most respondents in this sector reported substantial improvements in their order books.

However, managers were cautious on their production expectations. The quarterly manufacturing survey indicates an increase in capacity utilisation. It now stands at about 77% in both the EU and the Eurozone, though still below the long term average (81%).

As indicated in the flash estimate released earlier, confidence among consumers regained momentum (+3 in the Eurozone and +1 in the EU). More optimism about the general economic situation and very significant easing unemployment fears in Germany contributed to the overall improvement. Confidence in services improved by 2 points in the EU and the Eurozone, driven by brighter assessments of demand and the business situation over the past 3 months. Sentiment in the retail sector increased by 2 points in the euro area and by 4 points in the EU, mainly owing to upbeat business expectations in the UK and in Germany. Sentiment in construction remained broadly unchanged in both regions.

Confidence in financial services - - not included in the ESI - - recorded the second significant drop in a row in the EU (-6), driven mainly by a sharply negative assessment of expected demand. In the euro area the confidence continued to increase (+3).

Business Climate

In July, the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the Eurozone picked up after the pause observed in June. The improvement in the indicator suggests that economic activity in industry will continue to recover in the coming months, although it has still some way to go to reach its pre-crisis level.

Managers in industry were upbeat about their order books and production trend observed in recent months. They were also more optimistic about their export order books. Meanwhile, managers' assessment of their stocks of finished products remained unchanged, and their production expectations were cautious.

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