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For the past year US home prices have moved sideways according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices; Detroit prices are back to 1994 levels
By Finfacts Team
Jul 27, 2010 - 2:22:11 PM
Data through May 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for
its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of US home prices,
show that the annual growth rates in 15 of the 20 MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical
Area) and the 10- and 20-City Composites improved in May compared to those
reported for April 2010. The 10-City Composite is up 5.4% and the 20-City
Composite is up 4.6% from where they were in May 2009. While 19 MSAs and both
Composites reported positive monthly changes in May over April, only 12 of the
MSAs and the two Composites saw better month-over-month growth rates in May than
those reported in April. Detroit prices are back to 1994 levels.
The chart above depicts the annual returns of the 10-City and
20-City Composite Home Price Indices with increases of 5.4% and 4.6%,
respectively, in May 2010 compared to the same month last year. While still
positive, Boston, Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas and Denver reported weaker annual
growth rates compared to their reports from last month. Seven of the 20 MSAs are
still reporting negative annual growth rates with May’s data.
“While May’s report on its own looks somewhat positive, a
broader look at home price levels over the past year still do not indicate that
the housing market is in any form of sustained recovery,” says David M.
Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “Since
reaching its recent trough in April 2009, the housing market has really only
stabilized at this lower level. The two Composites have improved between 5 and
6% since then, but this is no better than the improvement they had registered as
of October 2009. The last seven months have basically been flat.”
“The May 2010 data for 15 of the 20 MSAs and the two
Composites show an improvement in annual returns compared to April’s report.
With the month-over-month data, while 19 of the 20 MSAs and the two Composites
were positive, we are in a strong seasonal period for home prices, so that was
largely expected. In addition, there may still be some residual impact from the
homebuyers’ tax credit, since they affect any purchase that closes through June
30th 2010. We need to watch where the housing markets
will go after these temporary stimuli go away. June’s existing and new home
sales and housing starts data do not show much real improvement in those
statistics either. It still looks possible that the housing market might bounce
along the bottom for the foreseeable future, before showing any real improvement
that will filter through to the rest of the economy.”
As of May 2010, average home prices across the United States are
back to the levels where they were in the autumn of 2003. Measured from
June/July 2006 through May 2010, the peak-to-date figures for the 10-City
Composite and 20-City Composite are -29.6% and -29.1%, respectively.
In May, Las Vegas posted a new index low as measured by the
current housing cycle, where it peaked in August 2006. The peak-to-trough figure
is -56.4%, with that market generally returning any gains it had posted since
2000. Detroit is the only market that is worse off. Its index is at levels last
seen in late 1994, indicating that any appreciation in value during the past 15
years is now gone.
Nineteen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites showed
month-over-month increases in May. The 10-and 20-City Composites were up 1.2%
and 1.3%, respectively. San Diego continues to improve, with its 13th
consecutive positive monthly increase. Miami and New York, the two markets that
had declined in April, posted positive monthly changes in May 2010, increasing
0.9% and 0.8%, respectively. Las Vegas on the other hand, showed a drop in index
level by 0.5% in May as compared to April 2010.
The table below summarizes the results for May 2010. The
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based
on the receipt of additional source data. More than 23 years of history for
these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to
here.