World trade volume grew strongly in May and industrial production has returned to its early 2008 peak, according to the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

World trade volume: Based on preliminary data, world trade volume increased by 1.8% in May from the previous month, following an upwardly revised decrease of 1.1% in April. Import volumes went up in the advanced economies as well as emerging Asia and emerging Europe, whereas Latin America and Africa / Middle East posted sizable declines.

Import growth was extraordinarily high in Japan. Export volume increased in all major regions with the exception of emerging Europe. In May, world trade was 3% below the peak level reached in April 2008 and 23% above the trough reached in May 2009. The CPB said monthly trade figures are volatile and focus on ‘momentum’ is therefore preferable. Momentum, which is the change in the three months average up to the current month relative to the average of the preceding three months period,  remains strongly positive. In the three months up to May, world trade was up by 5.0% from the preceding three months.

Momentum was again highest in Latin America, while it declined somewhat in emerging Asia. Momentum of Eurozone exports went up for a third month in a row.

World industrial production: On the basis of preliminary data, world industrial production grew by an impressive 1.0% in May 2010, following a downwardly revised 0.7% increase in April. Production grew rapidly in all regions, with the exceptions of Japan and Latin America, where production was (nearly) flat. Growth was highest in the Eurozone and emerging Europe. In April, industrial production was finally back at the previous peak level reached in March 2008, which is 14% up from the March 2009 trough.

The world-trade database (Excel file)