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Economic insecurity in the US is at its highest point in 25 years, according
to a report released this week.
The Rockefeller Foundation released a
new
Economic
Security Index (ESI) that measures the effect of income loss
and rising medical costs on Americans. It concludes that the
recession has made Americans a lot less secure, but a sense
of security has been
on the slide for years.
Almost one in five Americans are said to be insecure in
2010, compared with less than one in eight in 1985,
according to the report from the foundation and Jacob Hacker, a political
science professor at Yale University. "There is a clear long-term upward trend in the economic
insecurity of American families," Hacker said in a
statement. "And while economic insecurity is substantially higher
for less affluent and educated Americans than for other
groups, it has risen across virtually all parts of American
society - - it's an issue squarely confronting the American
middle class."
The index tracks Americans who have had a year-over-year
fall of 25% or more in income after medical costs but don’t
have enough savings to offset the plunge. “Security is really about loss,” said Hacker. “We
wanted to try to come up with a measure that measures
security against a large economic loss.”
The ESI was at 12.2% in 1985 and at 13.7% in 2007and is
projected to hit 20.4% for 2009.
The index is produced from a mix of various government
surveys but is mainly based on the
Census Bureau’s
Survey of Income and Program Participation, which tracks the same people over several
years.
As to the reasons for the growing insecurity, the report says first, the earnings of male workers have become more unstable
since the 1970s, and because men still contribute more to household income on average than do women, growing variability of male earnings has a major effect on overall household income stability. Second, transfer income - - cash benefits received by families from government programs
- - appears to have become more unstable since the 1970s. Third, the rising prevalence of two earner couples does not appear to have provided a big income cushion to families. This may reflect the fact that income gains for the middle class have been relatively muted over the period studied so that families are working harder for only modestly more income while facing large price increases for health care.
“The ESI data allows us to see that behind the economic
cycle, there is a clear long-term upward trend in the
economic insecurity of American families,” Prof. Hacker said.
“[W]hile economic insecurity is
substantially higher for less affluent and educated
Americans than for other groups, it has risen across
virtually all parts of American society - - it’s an issue
squarely confronting the American middle class.”
Key
findings from the report:
The index increased by one third between 1985
and the pre-recession year of 2007. It increased by
half between 1985 and 2009. The proportion of
Americans experiencing big income dips, measured
with more limited data, has increased even more
since the 1960s.
The index classifies 46 million people as
insecure in 2007 - - before the recession.
The index broadly tracks unemployment, but has
proportionately spiked more than the
unemployment rate during the recession.
It takes an average individual experiencing an
income shock six to eight years to return to the
same income level.