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Foreign direct investment (FDI)
flows to and from developed countries contracted by more than 40% in 2009 to
$566bn and $821bn respectively, following a similar decline in the previous
year, according to the United Nations agency UNCTAD´s annual study of worldwide
investment trends. Yet this decline was not as severe as the one during the
previous economic downturn of 2000-2003.
The
World Investment Report 2010 , subtitled
Investing in a Low-Carbon Economy,
released Thursday indicates that FDI flows to developed countries were
nevertheless four times higher in the first quarter of 2010 than in the same
period in 2009.
The report says the global economic
and financial crisis hit inward FDI of different regions unevenly. North America
was most affected. Flows to the United States - - the largest host country in
the world - - declined by 60%, while FDI flows to Canada more than halved. FDI
flows to Japan also shrank by 51%. The 27 members of the European Union (EU)
weathered the blow better (33%). Although FDI shrunk in some large host
countries, such as the United Kingdom, Belgium and Spain, FDI flows increased to
other major host economies, such as Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands. This
yielded a different ranking of the largest recipient developed countries in
2009. While the bulk of FDI inflows to developed countries originated in other
developed countries, transnational corporations (TNCs) from developing
countries, too, became active investors in 2009.
Ireland had inflows of $25bn in 2009
and outflows of $21bn. The report puts Ireland's inward stock at $193bn in 2009
and outward stock at $192bn. The latter figure is not reliable. Ireland's one
TNC, building materials giant CRH, has a market value of $15bn, about 95,000
staff with just over 2,000 employed in Ireland. Foreign shareholders own about
90% of the capital.
In 2009, Ireland had 132,000
employed in TNCs - - less than the total in 1998.
In money
terms, Ireland fell from 21st to 23rd of 30 countries. China was top, the US was
second and India third.
Cross-border mergers and
acquisitions, the main mode of FDI flows to and from developed countries, fell
sharply in 2009 but are recovering in 2010. Greenfield investments were hit
less, as they follow longer planning and investment periods and react less to
shocks like the recent economic and financial crisis. Therefore, the value of
cross-border M&As rose by 48% for the first five months of 2010 over the same
period of the previous year, while the number of greenfield investments remained
almost at the same level as in the same period in 2009 during the first four
months.
Outward FDI flows from developed
countries declined by 48%. Falling profits and financial pressures resulted in
depressed reinvested earnings, re-channelled dividends and withdrawn
intra-company loans. Like recipients countries, the ranking of the largest
investors is quite different in 2009.
The report says the current crisis
has made the question of outward FDI-related employment particularly important.
Fast-growing outward FDI over the past decade has resulted in growing employment
at the foreign affiliates of developed countries´ TNCs. In contrast, the impact
of outward FDI on home-country employment is mixed. While outward FDI may reduce
employment at home, particularly in the case of market-seeking FDI, it can save
or create jobs if it leads to more exports for the home country, or better
competitiveness for the investing firm. The impact also depends on the type of
investment, the location of affiliates and TNCs´ employment strategies.
TNCs with a home base in relatively
small economies (e.g. Austria and Switzerland) employ a relatively large share
of their total workforce in foreign affiliates. TNCs based in large home
economies, like the United States and Japan, typically employ a high share of
their workforce in headquarters and domestic affiliates: in 2007, the majority
of the workforce of United States TNCs (69% or 22 million workers) was employed
in parent firms in the United States; and data on Japanese TNCs show that about
half of their consolidated employment is still located at home.
In 2009, a continued trend towards
investment liberalization could be observed in developed countries, particularly
in the air transport industry (Australia and between the EU and Canada). In
addition, foreign investors benefited from State aid supplied in response to the
financial crisis. However, in certain countries, screening requirements for
foreign investment for national security reasons were tightened (Canada and
Germany).
Prospects for FDI flows to developed
countries have improved during the first half of 2010 thanks to economic
recovery. In addition, large public debts can force some EU countries to engage
in a new round of privatizations (e.g. Greece), opening the way for higher FDI
inflows. On the other hand, the perception of increased risk of sovereign debt
default in certain European countries and its possible transmission to the
Eurozone could easily disrupt this upward trend.