The US Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.2% in June to 109.8, following a 0.5% increase in May, and a 0.1% decline in April.

Five of the ten indicators that make up the LEI  increased in June. The positive contributors - - beginning with the largest positive contributor - -  were the interest rate spread, real money supply, building permits, the index of consumer expectations, and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials. The negative contributors - - beginning with the largest negative contributor - - were average weekly manufacturing hours, the index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), stock prices, and average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted). The manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods held steady in June.

"The indicators point to slower growth through the fall," says Ken Goldstein, economist at the Conference Board. "Two trends will have a direct impact on the pace of economic expansion. First, improvement in the industrial core of the economy will moderate as inventory rebuilding slows. Second, improvement in the service sector has been relatively slow, with little indication that it will pick up momentum."

"The LEI decreased in two of the last three months, but its level is still about 4.5% above its previous peak before the recession began," says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at the Conference Board.

"Moreover, the gains among the LEI components have been widespread, with the exception of housing permits and stock prices, pointing to an expanding economy, but at a slower pace in the second half of the year."

The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) was unchanged in June, following a 0.5% increase in May, and a 0.3% increase in April. TheLagging Economic Index(LAG) increased 0.1% in June to 107.6, following a 0.1% decline in May, and a 0.3% decline in April.