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German Chancellor Angela Merkel presented with a traditional Chinese dessert for her 56th Birthday, while on her visit to China, July 17, 2010. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is on her left.
Germany's Economics Ministry said on
Sunday that after a quieter winter hit by severe weather, the German economy
experienced strong economic growth in the spring. The GDP (gross domestic
product) is likely to have increased in the second quarter, significantly higher
than in the first quarter of this year which grew by 0.2 %.
In its monthly report, the ministry
said in addition to catch-up effects - - due to weather-related production falls
in winter - - which aided construction, growth has been mainly dependent on a
strong expansion in industrial production. Industry is benefiting both from
external demand as well as a revival of investment activity in the country.
Thanks to a continuing strong demand for industrial products from home and
abroad, it is estimated that industrial activity in the coming months will
remain positive.
Also in the labour market, the
economic recovery is increasing. The report said the improved condition of the
labour market will also benefit from increasing private consumption in the
course of the year. Overall, the recovery process in Germany has further
broadened and strengthened. However, the report says there are still a number of
economic risks. The recovery of the global economy is not yet self-supporting in
some important industrial countries while in some emerging markets there are
already signs of overheating. The euro debt crisis remains a downside factor,
and several national and international leading indicators in recent months,
although still positive, have deteriorated, reflecting the risk factors.
Based on a significantly improved
order situation, the recovery in industry continued with an increase in
production by 2.6 % in May, from the previous month. A buoyant investment and
expanding international business ensures a robust expansion of industrial output
by 3.4 %. The production in the construction industry revived after the
exceptionally strong fall in the first quarter.
The previous year's levels of
production in particular in industry is up +13.7 %, but construction also
increased +3.8 %. The order activity both in industry and in construction
continued to be relatively brisk. The demand in industry slowed in May, although
slightly (- 0.5%), but the trend remains sharply upward with strong demand from
both the domestic and from abroad. Continued momentum in the construction
industry in the current year, mainly results from the 2009 economic stimulus
packages. Residential construction will expand slightly with rising building
permits.
The ministry said private
consumption expenditure in the second quarter has been quite restrained. Retail
sales (excluding vehicles) increased in May but significantly by 3.0 %, they
remain unchanged when the three-month trend is compared.
Exports in current prices in May rose by 9.2 % with a significantly greater
increase in imports (+ 14.8 %).
The rise in employment in recent
months continued in May with a continued increase in seasonally adjusted
employment by 38,000 people. The seasonally adjusted unemployment fell in June
by 21,000 and overall, in the month, 3.153 million unemployed were registered,
257 000 less than a year ago. The number of vacancies continues to increase.
The magazine, Der Spiegel, said the
government expects GDP growth for the second quarter may have topped 1.5%,
rather than the 0.9% previously forecast. Should the trend continue, GDP growth
could be well above 2% in 2010, Spiegel says, citing government estimates.
The current official government forecast for
2010 GDP growth is currently 1.4%.