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Markets News Wednesday: Singapore reports stunning 18.1% GDP growth in H1 2010; Tesco Ireland to add 748 new jobs
By Finfacts Team
Jul 14, 2010 - 9:01:24 AM
Orchard Road, Singapore - - the city state's principal shopping street.
Singapore reported today that the economy grew by a stunning 18.1% in the
first half of this year, compared with the same period in 2009. The government responded with caution about the full
year's economy performance and urged structural reforms to put the economy on a
path of sustainable growth.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) announced today that
it expects the Singapore economy to expand by 13.0 to 15.0% in 2010, an upward
revision from the earlier forecast of 7.0 to 9.0%.
The latest data from the Department of
Statistics show that the Singapore economy grew at a stronger pace in the first
quarter of 2010. The economy expanded by 16.9% on a year-on-year basis, higher
than the growth of 15.5% estimated in May. On a seasonally-adjusted
quarter-on-quarter annualised basis, the economy grew by 45.9%, compared to an
earlier estimate of 38.6%. The revision is primarily due to an upward adjustment
to the growth estimate for the manufacturing sector (specifically the biomedical
manufacturing cluster).
MITI said advance estimates for the second quarter of 2010 indicate that the economy has
continued to expand strongly. Compared to the same period last year, real GDP is
expected to grow by 19.3%. On a sequential basis, the economy grew by 26.0% in
the second quarter.
The manufacturing sector is estimated to have grown by 45.5% year-on-year.
Growth was driven by a surge in the output of the biomedical manufacturing
cluster, as well as a strong expansion in electronics, underpinned by healthy
worldwide demand for electronics products. The construction sector is estimated
to have grown by 13.5% on a year-on-year basis, compared to 10.2% growth in the
first quarter of 2010. This was supported by an increase in public sector
construction activities.
Tey Tze Ming, market strategist
at Saxo Capital Markets, forecasts Singapore's STI will hit 3050 in the third
quarter. He tells CNBC's Adam Bakhtiar and Oriel Morrison that investors should
be long stocks that generate their revenue in Singapore dollars:
Economic View: Singing from the same hymn sheet - - Goodbody
economist, Deirdre Ryan, comments -- "Irish economic forecasts have
been in an upward revision cycle in recent months and the ESRI follows this
trend also in its latest Quarterly Economic Commentary. The Institute now
expects GDP growth of 0.3% for 2010 (was -0.5%), with a marginal decline still
expected in GNP of -0.3%. For 2011 they have also put through modest upgrades to
forecasts, with GDP of 2.8% now expected (vs 2.5% previously). Similar to our
own forecast, the expansion in GDP this year is driven wholly by the
contribution from the external sector, where the momentum proved particularly
impressive in Q1 and where more recent indicators such as industrial production
(+5% yoy in May) have pointed to a continuing strong pipeline of manufacturing
activity.
Although the ESRI expects a very modest resumption of consumer spending to
occur this year (+0.3%), it will be 2011 before any meaningful growth is seen in
spending, with a 1.3% growth in consumption forecast for next year, (in line
with our own estimate). Employment levels are forecast to continue contracting
throughout 2010 (-3.7%), and remain flat in 2011, indicative of the challenging
domestic demand outlook, while unemployment is forecast to average at 13.3% this
year and fall only modestly to 13% in 2011.
Overall, this latest update from the ESRI is in line with our own views,
where we upgraded forecasts following the recent Q1 GDP data and now expect GDP
growth of 1.6% for 2010, before an acceleration to 3% next year. It also follows
the upgrade by the Dept of Finance to their forecasts last week, who have
pencilled in 1% growth in GDP for 2010. While significant challenges still
remain for the Irish economy, in particular a very difficult labour market
picture and high unemployment rate, much is still to be done in relation to
fiscal consolidation, this latest upgrade to forecasts is encouraging
nonetheless."
Greece will be ready to return
to international bond markets next year, if conditions are good, Finance
Minister George Papaconstantinou told CNBC:
Tesco Expansion: Tesco Ireland, the biggest supermarket chain
operating in Ireland, is to open seven new stores and create jobs as part
of a €113m investment in the Republic of Ireland.
The company plans to
redevelop some existing stores and open additional ones.
The company, which currently employs more than 13,000 people in
Ireland, says it will create 748 new jobs over the year with 266 jobs
to be created in Naas, 110 each in Counties Galway
and Waterford, 90 in Mayo, 80 in Westmeath and 60 in Tipperary.
Tesco reported in March that sales fell in the year to
the end of February by 7.5% to €2.9bn, due to lower
prices.
Discussing how the upcoming
results from Europe's bank stress tests will impact the euro, with John
Kyriakopoulos, head of currency strategy at NAB Global Markets Research,
speaking with CNBC's Martin Soong, Karen Tso & Bernard Lo:
Reaction of financial markets can help to shape
recovery: Davy chief economist, Rossa White,
comments -- "Risky assets have rallied over
the last two weeks. This is important so that
worries about economic recovery begin to dissipate.
It is almost chicken-and-egg. If enough investors
believe that recovery is unsustainable, tighter
financial conditions could impinge recovery (one of
the problems too is that the softest leading
indicator seems to put a heavy weight on financial
market variables). Some better macro numbers, recent
extreme bearishness and a healthy start to the US
earnings season have led to a rally in equities and
credit. The more that financial conditions
ameliorate, the better the chance of activity
remaining resilient.
US financial conditions deteriorated sharply
in response to the savage sell-off in equities and
to a lesser extent credit. Falling long-term
interest rates were not enough to compensate. The
Bloomberg index showed that conditions had
deteriorated in May to their worst point since July
2009 and had scraped around that level for most of
June. But the recent rally has seen a leap back to
early May levels. It matters because the rally in
equity markets no doubt contributed to the rebound
in US consumer spending. Household net worth rose
for four straight quarters from Q2 2009 onwards,
helping to limit the rise in compensatory saving.
But at this point in the cycle, it is perhaps
just as important to focus on the business sector.
What happens to the cost of credit will help to
partly determine whether business investment kicks
in significantly. Credit spreads had tightened a
long way until the dislocation of the last few
months. In that context, the overnight news from
Intel is promising. Given reasonable credit
conditions, businesses are looking to re-invest and
Intel is seeing it through its order book."
US markets
On Tuesday, the Dow rose
147 points or 1.44% to 10,363.
The S&P 500 advanced 1.53%
and the Nasdaq gained 1.99%.
Asia
markets
The
MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped 1.3% Wednesday.
The
Nikkei gained 2.71%; China's Shanghai Composite added 0.76%; Australia's S&P/ASX
200 Index advanced 1.87% and India's Sensex Index climbed 0.21%.
In Europe, the Dow Jones
Stoxx 600 is up 0.34% Wednesday.
The ISEQ has risen 0.97% in
Dublin.
CRH has risen 0.11%; Elan
has added 2.80%; AIB is up 1.06% and BoI has gained 3.29%; Glanbia has risen 1.92%.
Glanbia (Buy, Closing Price €3.12); Positive
trading update from Glanbia; Goodbody analyst, Liam Igoe, comments -- "Glanbia
said this morning that it is trading “in line with expectations” and that it
would have a very strong first half on the back of the recovery in the commodity
dairy business in Ireland. Within Dairy Ireland, the improvement in dairy
product prices has led to a turnaround from losses last year to profits in 2010.
This is in line with our full-year forecasts where we anticipate profit of €10m,
versus losses of €19m in 2009. By contrast, the Irish Consumer Foods operations
had a 'tough' first half, due, in part, to the same recovery in dairy markets,
which pushed up its key raw material price (milk), but also due to an 'extremely
competitive' retail environment.
We have factored in a reduction in
profits in Consumer Foods (from €29m to €23m) to allow for these pressures.
Internationally, the cheese and nutritionals operations continue to show good
growth. The joint ventures – Southwest Cheese in the US, Glanbia Cheese in the
UK and Nutricima in Nigeria – have all shown an improvement in H1. The 40%
expansion at Southwest has been completed and the plant is currently operating
at full capacity, which should also bode well for the supply of whey input into
Glanbia’s nutritionals business in Idaho. The progress being made appears at
least in line with our forecasts. The statement does not comment on the
possibility of a new vote on any restructuring of the company to sell the Dairy
Ireland business back to the co-op, though we would expect some news on this in
the autumn."
The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - -
a rise of 289% in 2009. The index averaged 59% lower in 2009 than a year
earlier.
The BDI fell for the 31st
straight session Friday. The index dipped 2.0% to 1,902 points - - almost 55%
from its May 26, 2010 peak of 4,209. Bloomberg says its the longest losing
streak since the 34 sessions to Aug. 15, 2001, according to Baltic Exchange
prices.
On Tuesday, the index fell for the 33rd straight session, by 2.7% to
1,790.
There has been a big supply of new ships in
recent years.
"The BDI shows the impact of demand in a stable demand environment,"
said Jeremy Penn, chief executive of the Baltic Exchange, which compiles the
index, to The Wall Street Journal. "At the moment, the supply situation is
anything but stable."
A
Wall Street Journal blog asks if prices in the shipping markets signaling a
hard-landing or worse, a double-dip?
“We do not think so, for two
reasons,” wrote Credit Suisse Asia equity strategists, in a note earlier
last week. “One, the BDI fell
by even more in 2004 and 2005, and both of those were soft landings. We would be
more worried if the BDI fell towards 1,000. Two, the BDI appears to have a poor
fit with more widely watched global leading indicators.”
Now, in part, the thinking
in looking at the Baltic Dry as an economic indicator — instead of just
commodity prices — is that it might shed a bit more light on actual usage of raw
materials, as opposed to “financialized”
commodities which can be bought and sold by traders who have no intention of
ever, say, producing iron. But the Baltic Dry has issues of its own.
Gold is trading at $1,213.40 up $2.10 from
Tuesday's spot price close in New York.
Irish Financials:
ECOFIN and Minister for Finance comment on stress tests; Goodbody analyst, Ken
Darmody, comments - - "Comments after yesterdays ECOFIN meeting indicate that
the European stress test results due to be released on July 23, will now be
followed by a more detailed announcement two weeks later. More time is needed in
order to publish a coordinated detailed breakdown of each bank causing the
timeline to slip into August. Comments throughout the day suggest that banks
failing the stress test will be required to seek capital privately at first
before turning to their own state.
The Commissioner for
Economic and Monetary Affairs, Olli Rehn, informed the market that should there
be excessive problems, which could not be covered by either market financing or
national backstops, then a third line of defence is available through the EU. He
followed this by stating that he did not expect this to be used. In relation to
Ireland, the Minister for Finance commented in recent days on the states
intentions to take part in the AIB recapitalisation if and when required.
Further comments yesterday from the Minister indicate that the Irish stress test
along with NAMA has been more rigorous than the European tests."