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News : International Last Updated: Jul 13, 2010 - 1:05:45 AM


Markets News Monday: China’s monthly exports jumped 43.9% in June from a year earlier; US second quarter earnings season begins today
By Finfacts Team
Jul 12, 2010 - 8:56:24 AM

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China’s monthly exports jumped 43.9%  in June from a year earlier to $137.4bn and the trade surplus more than doubled to $20bn - - the highest level in eight months - - the government said on Saturday. Meanwhile, China's currency, the renminbi (RMB), rose to 6.7718 against the US dollar Monday, a new record high, according to the data released by the China Foreign Exchange Trading System. The rate had been pegged to the US currency at 6.83 from July 2008 until last month.

The General Administration of Customs (GAC) said in the first half of 2010, exports rose 35.2% to $705.09bn while imports were up 52.7% to $649.79bn. China's foreign trade in the first half totaled $1.35trn, a year-on-year increase of 43.1 %, after the country saw its June exports and total trade both reach record highs, the GAC said.In June, exports were up 43.9 % to $137.4bn while imports were $117.37bn, up 34.1  % year on year, resulting in a total trade value of $254.77bn.

The June exports increased 4.3 % from May and the imports were 4.6% higher from the last month, according to the agency. However, the pace of growth in exports and imports were both slower than in May when exports surged 48.5 % and imports jumped 48.3% from a year earlier.

State agency Xinhua quotes Bi Jiyao, a senior researcher with the National Development and Reform Commission, who said the strong figures partly stemmed from the low comparison base last year.

In the first half of 2009, China posted a 23.5% decline in total trade, with exports and imports down 21.8 % and 25.4  % respectively, according to the GAC data.

More importantly, the strong performance of China's trade was attributable to the recovery of the world economy and China's deepening economic ties with other emerging markets, said Bi.

Trade between China and the European Union rose 37.2% in the first half of this year to $219.42bn from the previous year, while trade with the United States grew by 30.2  % to $171.99bn the GAC said.

China's trade with Japan also saw rapid growth, hitting $136.55bn, up 37  % from a year earlier, and Japan became China's third largest trade partner as a result, the GAC data showed.

The risk of a double-dip recession has increased significantly, believes Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, senior economist at Standard Chartered. He explains why and shares his growth outlook for the MENA region with CNBC's Yousef Gamal El-Din, Chloe Cho & Anna Edwards:

US Earnings Season: The corporate earnings season begins today with companies beginning to report on the second quarter. in earnest on Monday, and investors are expecting good news.

The New York Times says this week, corporate bellwethers like Alcoa, Google, JPMorgan Chase and Intel are scheduled to report second-quarter results. While earnings will vary by company and industry, economists say that, taken together, the reports will point to some bright spots for the economy, as well as to some enduring obstacles.

Earnings per share for companies whose stocks are included in the Standard and Poor’s 500-stock index are expected to have expanded 25 to 30% from the same period a year earlier.

Following news that Japan's ruling party has lost the Upper House majority, Dan Slater, director, Economist Corporate Network, explains why a gridlock is in the offing. He speaks to CNBC's Kaori Enjoji, Karen Tso and Martin Soong:

Economic View: Costs associated with Anglo Irish bank may increase further; Goodbody economist, Deirdre Ryan, comments - - "The cost of the Irish banking crisis will be one of the most prominent scars left on the Irish economy in the years ahead. While the overall cost to the Exchequer had been estimated at c.€33bn, worryingly, the costs associated with Anglo Irish bank may yet increase further. According to press reports this morning, the Exchequer may be liable for a further €11.5bn for Anglo, arising from loans provided by the Irish Central Bank to Anglo Irish bank, which were allegedly secured on developer loans. This from of collateral was unsuitable in acquiring lending from the ECB and so could not be used for liquidity purposes according to the press report. To date the costs associated with Anglo Irish Bank have topped €22bn, or 13% of GDP, with the overall gross fiscal cost of the banking crisis, including the recapitalisation costs associated with AIB and Bank of Ireland as well as the smaller institutions of INBS and EBS, expected to amount to €33bn or 20% of GDP.

Were this cost to increase by a further €11.5bn, this would bring the total costs associated with the banking sector to €44.5, (26% of GDP). The great majority of this would be associated with Anglo Irish bank alone, at over €33.5bn. These are gross costs only and do not take into account the fact that the Government expects to recoup its investments in AIB and Bank or Ireland. However, this is not expected to be the case with any monies provided to Anglo. In order to spread the banking costs over a longer time frame, the Government has said it will use promissory notes by way of funding, which can spread the borrowing burden out over a ten year period. Nevertheless, this latest development highlights the continued uncertainty that exists over the final fiscal cost to the Exchequer."

Europe's bank stress tests have been the focus throughout the week, despite a lack of details over their methodology. David Blanchflower, professor of economics at Dartmouth College and former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, and Russell Jones from Westpac discuss.

Irish construction still in recession, albeit not shrinking as quickly, Davy chief economist, Rossa White, comments - - "The recession in construction eased somewhat in June. But that is probably because activity cannot fall much further, which is little consolation for the industry. Unfortunately, it means that the floor for employment is still some way off: late 2011 at the earliest. That is because activity has to bottom first and then it will take at least six months for companies to feel confident enough to take on extra workers. Construction employment is likely to slip to 110,000 by end-2011 from a peak of 274,000.

The latest construction PMI was the best in almost three years. In June, the index read 44.9, up from 40.0 in May. But that figure needs plenty of interpretation. Anything below 50 denotes lower activity compared with previous months. Readings below but closer to 50 mean that output is still shrinking but at a slower pace. In that context, the readings for housing and commercial new building make sense. Both sub-indices have steadily increased this year: housing is now at 45.4 and commercial is at 45.8. That compares with the depths of 32.6 and 32.3 respectively as of December 2009 seasonally adjusted. The improvement probably tells us that housing starts have dropped so far (now running at an annualised rate of 5,000-6,000) that they are nearing replacement level: in other words, there is little scope for further declines. The same is true of new commercial activity: if it dropped much more month-on-month, there would be no new building at all.

The government is the only real provider of impetus for the construction industry. It is worrying therefore that civil engineering is declining more sharply than housing and commercial building. We already knew that spending is 25% behind budget at the half-year stage. In previous years, spending has broadly caught up by year-end: in 2010, it is critical that the same occurs. Even still, the only cuts fully outlined for Budget 2011 at this stage are in the capital programme: €1bn, bringing the total down to €5.5bn. For an industry where new expenditure is headed for only €10bn, that chunk of public spending remains vital. Further cuts should not be contemplated."

Asia markets

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2% Monday.

The Nikkei fell 0.39%; China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.73%; Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.31% and India's Sensex Index added 0.35%.

Japan's ruling Democratic Party of Japan suffered a heavy defeat, suffering a major setback in Sunday's Upper House election.

It lost control and does not have a two-thirds majority in the Lower House that is needed to override decisions made in the upper house.

The DJP had advocated a hike in consumption tax to pay for a reduction in the gross public debt which exceeds 200% of GDP (gross domestic product).

Asia benchmarks

Finfacts Reports

Cowen to launch €500 million “Innovation Fund Ireland” at the New York Stock Exchange
Dr. Peter Morici: US trade deficit threatens double dip and depression
Irish construction activity fell in June for 37th straight month: Pace of decline eased
European governments selling property assets to ease debt burdens; UK commercial development hit by dip in public sector activity

In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up 0.08% Monday.

The ISEQ has risen 0.17% in Dublin.

CRH has risen 0.61%; Elan has added 1.27%;  AIB has dipped 3.1% and BoI has lost 1.64%.

European Benchmarks

Irish Share Prices

Irish Stock Market Capitalisation by Company

Key Index Performance Statistics

Euribor Rates

AIB Daily Report

Bank of Ireland Daily Report

Currencies 

The euro is trading at $1.2583 and at £0.8410.

For live currency updates, check the right-hand column of the Finfacts home page.

The US dollar fell to $1.6038 per euro on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 - an-all time record.

Commodities

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry commodities, hit an all-time High of 11,771 on the 21st of May, 2008. From that time it reversed and on the 5th of December, 2008 it hit a low of 663 - - close to a 1986 low.

The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009. The index averaged 59% lower in 2009 than a year earlier.

The BDI fell for the 31st straight session Friday. The index dipped 2.0% to 1,902 points - - almost 55% from its May 26, 2010 peak of 4,209. Bloomberg says its the longest losing streak since the 34 sessions to Aug. 15, 2001, according to Baltic Exchange prices.

A Wall Street Journal blog asks if prices in the shipping markets signaling a hard-landing or worse, a double-dip?

“We do not think so, for two reasons,” wrote Credit Suisse Asia equity strategists, in a note earlier last week. “One, the BDI fell by even more in 2004 and 2005, and both of those were soft landings. We would be more worried if the BDI fell towards 1,000. Two, the BDI appears to have a poor fit with more widely watched global leading indicators.”

Now, in part, the thinking in looking at the Baltic Dry as an economic indicator — instead of just commodity prices — is that it might shed a bit more light on actual usage of raw materials, as opposed to “financialized” commodities which can be bought and sold by traders who have no intention of ever, say, producing iron. But the Baltic Dry has issues of its own.

Crude oil for August 2010 delivery is currently trading on the Chicago York Mercantile Exchange (CME/Nymex) at $75.67 per barrel down up 42 cents from Friday's close. In London, Brent for August delivery is trading on the International Commodities Exchange at $74.97.

Gold spot price

Gold is trading at $1,208.10 down $3.30 from Friday's spot price close in New York.

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