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Markets News Monday: China’s monthly exports jumped 43.9% in June from a year earlier; US second quarter earnings season begins today
By Finfacts Team
Jul 12, 2010 - 8:56:24 AM
China’s monthly exports jumped 43.9% in June
from a year earlier to $137.4bn and the trade surplus more than
doubled to $20bn - - the highest level in eight months - - the
government said on Saturday. Meanwhile, China's currency, the renminbi
(RMB), rose to 6.7718 against the US dollar Monday, a new record high, according to
the data released by the China Foreign Exchange Trading System. The rate
had been pegged to the US currency at 6.83 from July 2008 until
last month.
The General Administration of
Customs (GAC) said in the first half
of 2010, exports rose 35.2% to $705.09bn while imports were up 52.7% to
$649.79bn. China's foreign trade in the first half
totaled $1.35trn, a year-on-year
increase of 43.1 %, after the country saw
its June exports and total trade both reach
record highs, the GAC said.In June, exports were up 43.9
% to
$137.4bn while imports were $117.37bn, up 34.1
% year on year,
resulting in a total trade value of $254.77bn.
The June exports increased 4.3 % from
May and the imports were 4.6% higher from
the last month, according to the agency. However, the pace of growth in exports and
imports were both slower than in May when
exports surged 48.5 % and imports jumped
48.3% from a year earlier.
State agency Xinhua quotes Bi Jiyao, a senior researcher with the
National
Development and Reform Commission, who said the
strong figures partly stemmed from the low
comparison base last year.
In the first half of 2009, China posted a
23.5% decline in total trade, with
exports and imports down 21.8 % and 25.4 % respectively, according to the GAC data.
More importantly, the strong performance of
China's trade was attributable to the recovery
of the world economy and China's deepening
economic ties with other emerging markets, said
Bi.
Trade between China and the European Union
rose 37.2% in the first half of this year
to $219.42bn from the previous
year, while trade with the United States grew by
30.2 % to $171.99bn the GAC
said.
China's trade with Japan also saw rapid
growth, hitting $136.55bn, up 37 % from a year earlier, and Japan became
China's third largest trade partner as a result,
the GAC data showed.
The risk of a double-dip
recession has increased significantly, believes Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce,
senior economist at Standard Chartered. He explains why and shares his growth
outlook for the MENA region with CNBC's Yousef Gamal El-Din, Chloe Cho & Anna
Edwards:
US Earnings Season: The corporate earnings season
begins today with companies beginning to report on the second quarter. in
earnest on Monday, and investors are expecting good news.
The New York Times says this week, corporate bellwethers like
Alcoa, Google, JPMorgan Chase and Intel are scheduled to report second-quarter
results. While earnings will vary by company and industry, economists say that,
taken together, the reports will point to some bright spots for the economy, as
well as to some enduring obstacles.
Earnings per share for companies
whose stocks are included in the Standard and Poor’s 500-stock index are
expected to have expanded 25 to 30% from the same period a year earlier.
Following news
that Japan's ruling party has lost the Upper House majority, Dan Slater,
director, Economist Corporate Network, explains why a gridlock is in the offing.
He speaks to CNBC's Kaori Enjoji, Karen Tso and Martin Soong:
Economic View: Costs associated with
Anglo Irish bank may increase further; Goodbody economist, Deirdre Ryan,
comments - - "The cost of the Irish banking crisis will be one of the most prominent scars
left on the Irish economy in the years ahead. While the overall cost to the
Exchequer had been estimated at c.€33bn, worryingly, the costs associated with
Anglo Irish bank may yet increase further. According to press reports this
morning, the Exchequer may be liable for a further €11.5bn for Anglo, arising
from loans provided by the Irish Central Bank to Anglo Irish bank, which were
allegedly secured on developer loans. This from of collateral was unsuitable in
acquiring lending from the ECB and so could not be used for liquidity purposes
according to the press report. To date the costs associated with Anglo Irish
Bank have topped €22bn, or 13% of GDP, with the overall gross fiscal cost of the
banking crisis, including the recapitalisation costs associated with AIB and
Bank of Ireland as well as the smaller institutions of INBS and EBS, expected to
amount to €33bn or 20% of GDP.
Were this cost to increase by a further €11.5bn,
this would bring the total costs associated with the banking sector to €44.5,
(26% of GDP). The great majority of this would be associated with Anglo Irish
bank alone, at over €33.5bn. These are gross costs only and do not take into
account the fact that the Government expects to recoup its investments in AIB
and Bank or Ireland. However, this is not expected to be the case with any
monies provided to Anglo. In order to spread the banking costs over a longer
time frame, the Government has said it will use promissory notes by way of
funding, which can spread the borrowing burden out over a ten year period.
Nevertheless, this latest development highlights the continued uncertainty that
exists over the final fiscal cost to the Exchequer."
Europe's bank
stress tests have been the focus throughout the week, despite a lack of details
over their methodology. David Blanchflower, professor of economics at Dartmouth
College and former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee,
and Russell Jones from Westpac discuss.
Irish construction still in recession, albeit not shrinking as
quickly, Davy chief economist, Rossa White, comments - - "The recession in construction eased somewhat in June. But that is
probably because activity cannot fall much further, which is little
consolation for the industry. Unfortunately, it means that the floor
for employment is still some way off: late 2011 at the earliest.
That is because activity has to bottom first and then it will take
at least six months for companies to feel confident enough to take
on extra workers. Construction employment is likely to slip to
110,000 by end-2011 from a peak of 274,000.
The latest construction PMI was the best in almost three years.
In June, the index read 44.9, up from 40.0 in May. But that figure
needs plenty of interpretation. Anything below 50 denotes lower
activity compared with previous months. Readings below but closer to
50 mean that output is still shrinking but at a slower pace. In that
context, the readings for housing and commercial new building make
sense. Both sub-indices have steadily increased this year: housing
is now at 45.4 and commercial is at 45.8. That compares with the
depths of 32.6 and 32.3 respectively as of December 2009 seasonally
adjusted. The improvement probably tells us that housing starts have
dropped so far (now running at an annualised rate of 5,000-6,000)
that they are nearing replacement level: in other words, there is
little scope for further declines. The same is true of new
commercial activity: if it dropped much more month-on-month, there
would be no new building at all.
The government is the only real provider of impetus for the
construction industry. It is worrying therefore that civil
engineering is declining more sharply than housing and commercial
building. We already knew that spending is 25% behind budget at the
half-year stage. In previous years, spending has broadly caught up
by year-end: in 2010, it is critical that the same occurs. Even
still, the only cuts fully outlined for Budget 2011 at this stage
are in the capital programme: €1bn, bringing the total down to
€5.5bn. For an industry where new expenditure is headed for only
€10bn, that chunk of public spending remains vital. Further cuts
should not be contemplated."
Asia
markets
The
MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2% Monday.
The
Nikkei fell 0.39%; China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.73%;
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.31% and India's Sensex Index added 0.35%.
Japan's ruling Democratic
Party of Japan suffered a
heavy defeat, suffering a major setback in Sunday's Upper House election.
It lost control and does not have a two-thirds
majority in the Lower House that is needed to override
decisions made in the upper house.
The DJP had advocated a hike in
consumption tax to pay for a reduction in the gross public debt which exceeds
200% of GDP (gross domestic product).
The BDI closed at
3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009. The index averaged 59%
lower in 2009 than a year earlier.
The BDI fell for the 31st
straight session Friday. The index dipped 2.0% to 1,902 points - - almost 55%
from its May 26, 2010 peak of 4,209. Bloomberg says its the longest
losing streak since the 34 sessions to Aug. 15, 2001, according to Baltic
Exchange prices.
A
Wall Street Journal blog asks if prices in the
shipping markets signaling a hard-landing or worse,
a double-dip?
“We do not think so, for two
reasons,” wrote Credit Suisse Asia equity
strategists, in a note earlier last week. “One,
the BDI fell by even more in 2004 and 2005, and both
of those were soft landings. We would be more
worried if the BDI fell towards 1,000. Two, the BDI
appears to have a poor fit with more widely watched
global leading indicators.”
Now, in part, the thinking in looking at the
Baltic Dry as an economic indicator — instead of
just commodity prices — is that it might shed a bit
more light on actual usage of raw materials, as
opposed to “financialized” commodities which can be
bought and sold by traders who have no intention of
ever, say, producing iron. But the Baltic Dry has
issues of its own.