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Irish consumer sentiment in June
reached strongest level since October 2007. The overall KBC
Ireland/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index increased in June to 65.3. This compares
to a figure of 65.3 in May and at its all time low in July 2008 when the index
was at 39.6.
The Consumer
Sentiment Index comprises two sub-indices; an index of consumer expectation that
focuses on how consumers view prospects over the next 12 months and an index of
current economic conditions, focusing on the present situation. The Index
of Consumers Expectations is based on consumers’ perceptions of their future
financial situation, the economic outlook and employment expectations. The index
value for June stood at 54.1, up from 53.7 in May. Consumers’ perception of
their current situation improved in June, primarily due to a more positive
perception of their current household finances. The value for this particular
index was 88.4, compared with 82.5 in May.
The data was
obtained from telephone interviews during the first two weeks of the month with
around 800 completed questionnaires. The data were re-weighted in line with
gender, age and level of educational attainment to ensure the data is fully
representative of the national population of adults. Each index is calculated by
computing the relative scores (the percent giving favorable replies minus the
percent giving unfavorable replies (the balance), plus 100) for each question
used in the different indices. Those who reply “Don’t Know”, “Remain the
same” are excluded from the index calculations. Each relative score is
rounded to the nearest whole number. The sum of the relative scores is then
divided by the base period total for each index.
Commenting on the
results David Duffy, ESRI, said:
“Consumer
sentiment improved slightly in June. This recent increase brings the index
to its highest level since October 2007.
“The improvement reflects a more positive assessment by
consumers of both the current situation and also the forward looking
components of the index. The Index of Current Conditions rose to 88.4
compared with 82.5 in May, while the Expectations index increased to 54.1
from 53.7 in May.”
“Expectations rose as there was some improvement in
consumers’ perception of the economic outlook. However, consumers remain
concerned about the outlook for employment and for their household finances
over the next 12 months”
In addition,
Austin Hughes, KBC Ireland, noted:
“The June Consumer sentiment results are encouraging.
Although they suggest Irish consumers are still very cautious and conditions
remain difficult, they also hint that fear is fading and many consumers are
beginning to sense an improvement in general economic conditions and their
own circumstances. These results point towards an economic recovery that
may be modest and fragile and one that is not being felt by all, but,
nonetheless, they suggest the Irish economy is moving in the right
direction.”
“Consumer sentiment improved modestly in Ireland and the US
in June but morale among European consumers was hit by growing concerns that
living standards will weaken as pension and welfare entitlements are cut.
For the past couple of years, European consumers have been cushioned to a
notably greater extent from the fallout of the financial crisis. Now, as
Irish consumers appear to see a little more light at the end of the tunnel,
their continental counterparts are beginning to contemplate a more difficult
future.”
Hughes added: "The improvement in Irish
consumer sentiment in June mirrors a similar rise in the corresponding US survey
which posted its best reading since January 2008. In contrast, Eurozone
consumer sentiment improved only marginally from a May reading that was the
lowest since September 2009. As diagram 1 below indicates, Irish consumer
sentiment has been on a different trajectory to European Consumer confidence in
recent years. There are several reasons why this might be the case. In recent
months the possible long term impact of the sovereign debt crisis has emerged as
a greater worry for many consumers in continental European countries than any
near term uncertainty about activity and jobs."