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News : Irish Last Updated: Jun 30, 2010 - 9:20:36 AM


Irish consumer sentiment in June reached strongest level since October 2007
By Finfacts Team
Jun 29, 2010 - 12:00:04 PM

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Irish consumer sentiment in June reached strongest level since October 2007. The overall KBC Ireland/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index increased in June to 65.3. This compares to a figure of 65.3 in May and at its all time low in July 2008 when the index was at 39.6.

The Consumer Sentiment Index comprises two sub-indices; an index of consumer expectation that focuses on how consumers view prospects over the next 12 months and an index of current economic conditions, focusing on the present situation. The Index of Consumers Expectations is based on consumers’ perceptions of their future financial situation, the economic outlook and employment expectations. The index value for June stood at 54.1, up from 53.7 in May. Consumers’ perception of their current situation improved in June, primarily due to a more positive perception of their current household finances. The value for this particular index was 88.4, compared with 82.5 in May.

The data was obtained from telephone interviews during the first two weeks of the month with around 800 completed questionnaires. The data were re-weighted in line with gender, age and level of educational attainment to ensure the data is fully representative of the national population of adults. Each index is calculated by computing the relative scores (the percent giving favorable replies minus the percent giving unfavorable replies (the balance), plus 100) for each question used in the different indices. Those who reply “Don’t Know”, “Remain the same” are excluded from the index calculations. Each relative score is rounded to the nearest whole number. The sum of the relative scores is then divided by the base period total for each index.

Commenting on the results David Duffy, ESRI, said:

  • “Consumer sentiment improved slightly in June. This recent increase brings the index to its highest level since October 2007.

  • “The improvement reflects a more positive assessment by consumers of both the current situation and also the forward looking components of the index. The Index of Current Conditions rose to 88.4 compared with 82.5 in May, while the Expectations index increased to 54.1 from 53.7 in May.”

  • “Expectations rose as there was some improvement in consumers’ perception of the economic outlook. However, consumers remain concerned about the outlook for employment and for their household finances over the next 12 months”

In addition, Austin Hughes, KBC Ireland, noted:

  • “The June Consumer sentiment results are encouraging. Although they suggest Irish consumers are still very cautious and conditions remain difficult, they also hint that fear is fading and many consumers are beginning to sense an improvement in general economic conditions and their own circumstances. These results point towards an economic recovery that may be modest and fragile and one that is not being felt by all, but, nonetheless, they suggest the Irish economy is moving in the right direction.”

  • “Consumer sentiment improved modestly in Ireland and the US in June but morale among European consumers was hit by growing concerns that living standards will weaken as pension and welfare entitlements are cut. For the past couple of years, European consumers have been cushioned to a notably greater extent from the fallout of the financial crisis. Now, as Irish consumers appear to see a little more light at the end of the tunnel, their continental counterparts are beginning to contemplate a more difficult future.”

Hughes added: "The improvement in Irish consumer sentiment in June mirrors a similar rise in the corresponding US survey which posted its best reading since January 2008. In contrast, Eurozone consumer sentiment improved only marginally from a May reading that was the lowest since September 2009. As diagram 1 below indicates, Irish consumer sentiment has been on a different trajectory to European Consumer confidence in recent years. There are several reasons why this might be the case. In recent months the possible long term impact of the sovereign debt crisis has emerged as a greater worry for many consumers in continental European countries than any near term uncertainty about activity and jobs."

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