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News : International Last Updated: Jun 28, 2010 - 5:00:41 PM


Bankers and investors expect euro to continue to slide; New global reserve currency required to replace fraying dollar
By Finfacts Team
Jun 28, 2010 - 6:45:42 AM

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The euro's value is forecast to slip further over the next 12 months, more than two-thirds of the world's senior bankers, hedge funds and private-equity managers said in a RBC Capital Markets survey. Separately, a report published last week says a new global reserve currency is required to replace the fraying dollar.

The RBC Capital Markets survey, which was conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit and released Monday by the Canadian firm, said 80% of the 440 respondents believe the US dollar will remain the dominant reserve currency for the next three years, although that dips to 57% over five years. However, a credible alternative is not seen and 15% see the Chinese yuan as the reserve currency of choice within five years and even fewer, 12%, expect the dollar being replaced by the euro.

Sovereign debt concerns in advanced economies remains the main worry and that helps to explain much of the markets' volatility, said Marc Harris, RBC Capital Markets' co-head of global research. The survey "gives you the breadcrumbs of all the key players," in the financial community and helps explain why the capital markets "devolve into moments of fear in ways that seem very different from past crises."

Almost half of those surveyed said there is a greater than 50% chance of one or more countries leaving the Eurozone and more than a third see at least a 25% chance of a complete break-up of the Eurozone in the next three years.

Greece is considered the most likely to leave the Eurozone, followed by Portugal, Spain and Ireland, all of which are struggling with high debt.

Germany is viewed as the fifth-most likely to leve the common currency area, possibly reflecting the respondents' concern that the German government may lose confidence in the monetary union if the current crisis continues.

It is not known how many Americans were among those with the gloomy outlook for the Eurozone. However, much of the US commentary on the sovereign debt crisis has been rooted in ignorance of the situation in Europe.

SEE: The Euro: Despite the markets and prophets of doom, the common currency is safer than ever

The G-20 country most likely to default on debt is Italy, followed by Argentina, Turkey, Mexico and Russia, the respondents said. The UK is perceived to be the western European country, after Italy, most likely to default on its debt, both within the Group of Eight and the G-20.

According to the survey, 59% think developed countries won't have the fiscal firepower to "jumpstart" their economies if there's another financial crisis. And, they see an increased divergence between emerging and developed economies, with most optimistic about Asia and negative on Europe.

Reform of the global reserve system is critical

A reform of the global reserve system is critical to avoid a repeat of the recent global economic crisis and Asia's fast recovering countries need to cooperate to ensure a smooth transition to a multi-currency alternative, says a new report from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Columbia University's Earth Institute.

The report, The Future Global Reserve System - An Asian Perspective, says that while the US dollar will remain the leading currency of international exchange for now, a rebalancing in the global economy means that in the future, a wider range of currencies will need to be used to settle trade and investment.

"Our current global reserve system, unfortunately, is not functioning too well," ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda said in a message in the report. "That means, more than ever, we need to work together both globally and regionally to find solutions - however gradually implemented—that will bring about a workable reform of the global reserve system."

The report says there is no single alternative to the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. The Greek debt crisis has exposed the euro's lack of a solid sovereign backbone. The yen is Asia's most internationally accepted currency but its reserve status has declined recently. The yuan, the currency of the fast expanding economy of the People's Republic of China, may well become a reserve currency sooner than most anticipate but for now, cannot fill the role.

The report is the result of an ADB-financed study by 17 internationally renowned monetary experts led by Jeffrey Sachs, Director of the Earth Institute and ADB Chief Economist Jong-Wha Lee. It describes the strengths and weaknesses of the current system, the case for cooperation in bringing about reform, and the increasing role Asia must play in making this happen.

Reforming the global reserve system has huge implications for Asia. The region holds close to half of the world's total foreign exchange reserves and is highly dependent on international trade and capital flows for its growing prosperity.

"The dollar-based reserve system has been fraying for years," said Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate and a contributor to the report. "A new global reserve system is absolutely essential if we are to restore the global economy to sustained prosperity and stability. But achieving this is not easy."

The report recommends that with Asia’s growing economic clout, the region should increase economic integration and policy coordination to smooth the transition to a multi-currency reserve system.

Exchange rate and monetary policy coordination needs to be stepped up and there need to be formal mechanisms for economic consultation and surveillance between regional and global institutions. Regional foreign exchange reserves must be more actively deployed through swap lines, special drawing rights and other types of borrowing so there is no repeat of the recent credit crunch.

The report also suggested that given the failure to develop globally binding agreements on climate change, a portion of the revenue that a country receives through seignorage could be used to help their region tackle climate change. Seignorage refers to the profits resulting from the difference in cost of printing money and the face value of the money.

On a global level, the report recommends a stronger set of capital market rules be devised given the failure of the financial system to police itself, and regularly gathering international monetary experts to discuss current account imbalances and thus avoid unnecessary friction between countries on issues such as trade or varying exchange rate regimes.

Some observers assume that the United States continues to enjoy an "exorbitant privilege" because of the dollar’s reserve currency status, as former French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing charged in the 1960s. But McKinsey Global Institute (MG)I finds that the United States may not enjoy much of a privilege at all. In 2007–2008 - - a "normal" year for the world economy, the net financial benefit to the United States was between about $40bn and $70bn - - or 0.3 to 0.5% of US GDP. In a "crisis" year - - such as the year to June 2009 - - MGI estimates that the net financial benefit fell to between -$5bn and $25bn because the dollar appreciated by an additional 10% due its status as a "safe haven."

Fred Bergsten, who served in the Treasury Department during the Carter administration and is now head of the Peterson Institute for International Economics think-tank, has argued that the dollar’s days are numbered as a reserve currency. Writing in the magazine Foreign Affairs, he said last year that the dollar’s position as the default international currency had made it “much easier for the United States to finance, and thus run up, large trade and current account deficits with the rest of the world.” But the US trade deficit, along with the huge US budget deficit, laid the groundwork for the current financial crisis. So he said it is now time for Washington to realise that “large external deficits, the dominance of the dollar, and the large capital inflows that necessarily accompany deficits and currency dominance are no longer in the United States’ national interest.” It’s time to start creating an international currency system that does not rely on the dollar, he concluded.

Ashraf Laidi, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, speaks to CNBC's Karen Tso about where the world's reserve currency is shifting to:

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