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Bankers and investors expect euro to continue to slide; New global reserve currency required to replace fraying dollar
By Finfacts Team
Jun 28, 2010 - 6:45:42 AM
The euro's value is forecast to slip further over the next
12 months, more than two-thirds of the world's senior
bankers, hedge funds and private-equity managers said in a
RBC Capital Markets survey.
Separately, a report published last week says a new global
reserve currency is required to replace the fraying dollar.
The RBC Capital
Markets survey, which was conducted by the Economist
Intelligence Unit and released Monday by the Canadian firm, said 80% of the 440 respondents believe the US dollar
will remain the dominant reserve currency for the next three
years, although that dips to 57% over five years. However, a
credible alternative is not seen and 15% see the Chinese yuan as the reserve currency of choice within five years and
even fewer, 12%, expect the dollar being replaced by the euro.
Sovereign debt concerns in advanced economies remains the
main worry and that helps to explain much of the markets'
volatility, said Marc Harris, RBC Capital Markets' co-head
of global research. The survey "gives you the breadcrumbs
of all the key players," in the financial community and
helps explain why the capital markets "devolve into
moments of fear in ways that seem very different from past
crises."
Almost half of those surveyed said there is a greater
than 50% chance of one or more countries leaving the Eurozone and more than a third see at least a 25% chance of a
complete break-up of the Eurozone in the next three years.
Greece is considered the most likely to leave the
Eurozone, followed by Portugal, Spain and Ireland, all of
which are struggling with high debt.
Germany is viewed as the fifth-most likely to leve the
common currency area, possibly reflecting the respondents' concern
that the German government may lose confidence in the
monetary union if the current crisis continues.
It is not known how many Americans were among those with
the gloomy outlook for the Eurozone. However, much of the US
commentary on the sovereign debt crisis has been rooted in
ignorance of the situation in Europe.
The G-20 country most likely to default on debt is Italy,
followed by Argentina, Turkey, Mexico and Russia, the
respondents said. The UK is perceived to be the western
European country, after Italy, most likely to default on its
debt, both within the Group of Eight and the G-20.
According to the survey, 59% think developed countries
won't have the fiscal firepower to "jumpstart" their
economies if there's another financial crisis. And, they see
an increased divergence between emerging and developed
economies, with most optimistic about Asia and negative on
Europe.
Reform of the global reserve system is critical
A reform of the global reserve system is critical to avoid a repeat of the
recent global economic crisis and Asia's fast recovering countries need to
cooperate to ensure a smooth transition to a multi-currency alternative, says a
new report from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Columbia University's Earth
Institute.
The report, The Future Global Reserve System - An Asian Perspective, says
that while the US dollar will remain the leading currency of international
exchange for now, a rebalancing in the global economy means that in the future,
a wider range of currencies will need to be used to settle trade and investment.
"Our current global reserve system, unfortunately, is not functioning too
well," ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda said in a message in the report.
"That
means, more than ever, we need to work together both globally and regionally to
find solutions - however gradually implemented—that will bring about a workable
reform of the global reserve system."
The report says there is no single alternative to the US dollar as the world's reserve
currency. The Greek debt crisis has exposed the euro's lack of a solid sovereign
backbone. The yen is Asia's most internationally accepted currency but its
reserve status has declined recently. The yuan, the currency of the fast
expanding economy of the People's Republic of China, may well become a reserve
currency sooner than most anticipate but for now, cannot fill the role.
The report is the result of an ADB-financed study by 17 internationally
renowned monetary experts led by Jeffrey Sachs, Director of the Earth Institute
and ADB Chief Economist Jong-Wha Lee. It describes the strengths and weaknesses
of the current system, the case for cooperation in bringing about reform, and
the increasing role Asia must play in making this happen.
Reforming the global reserve system has huge implications for Asia. The
region holds close to half of the world's total foreign exchange reserves and is
highly dependent on international trade and capital flows for its growing
prosperity.
"The dollar-based reserve system has been fraying for years,"
said Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate and a contributor to the report. "A new global
reserve system is absolutely essential if we are to restore the global economy
to sustained prosperity and stability. But achieving this is not easy."
The report recommends that with Asia’s growing economic clout, the region
should increase economic integration and policy coordination to smooth the
transition to a multi-currency reserve system.
Exchange rate and monetary policy coordination needs to be stepped up and
there need to be formal mechanisms for economic consultation and surveillance
between regional and global institutions. Regional foreign exchange reserves
must be more actively deployed through swap lines, special drawing rights and
other types of borrowing so there is no repeat of the recent credit crunch.
The report also suggested that given the failure to develop globally binding
agreements on climate change, a portion of the revenue that a country receives
through seignorage could be used to help their region tackle climate
change. Seignorage refers to the profits resulting from the difference
in cost of printing money and the face value of the money.
On a global level, the report recommends a stronger set of capital market
rules be devised given the failure of the financial system to police itself, and
regularly gathering international monetary experts to discuss current account
imbalances and thus avoid unnecessary friction between countries on issues such
as trade or varying exchange rate regimes.
Some observers assume that the United States
continues to enjoy an "exorbitant privilege" because of the dollar’s
reserve currency status, as former French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard
d’Estaing charged in the 1960s. But
McKinsey Global Institute (MG)I finds that the United States may not enjoy
much of a privilege at all. In 2007–2008 - - a "normal" year for the
world economy, the net financial benefit to the United States was between about
$40bn and $70bn - - or 0.3 to 0.5% of US GDP. In a "crisis" year - - such
as the year to June 2009 - - MGI estimates that the net financial benefit fell
to between -$5bn and $25bn because the dollar appreciated by an additional 10%
due its status as a "safe haven."
Fred Bergsten, who served in
the Treasury Department during the Carter administration and is now head of the
Peterson Institute for International Economics think-tank,
has argued that the dollar’s days are numbered as a reserve currency.
Writing in the magazine Foreign Affairs, he said last year that the
dollar’s position as the default international currency had made it “much
easier for the United States to finance, and thus run up, large trade and
current account deficits with the rest of the world.” But the US trade
deficit, along with the huge US budget deficit, laid the groundwork for the
current financial crisis. So he said it is now time for Washington to realise
that “large external deficits, the dominance of the dollar, and the large
capital inflows that necessarily accompany deficits and currency dominance are
no longer in the United States’ national interest.” It’s time to start
creating an international currency system that does not rely on the dollar, he
concluded.
Ashraf Laidi,
chief market strategist at CMC Markets, speaks to CNBC's Karen Tso about where
the world's reserve currency is shifting to: