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G-20 Summit: Leaders agree on timetable for cutting their deficits; Support higher capital demands for banks
By Finfacts Team
Jun 28, 2010 - 5:06:13 AM
G-20 Summit: Leaders of the world’s biggest economies agreed on Sunday on a
timetable for cutting their deficits and stemming the growth of their public
debt, despite the Obama administration’s concern that cutting spending could
imperil the fragile global recovery that is currently underway. The leaders also
supported higher capital demands for banks.
At the conclusion of the two-day summit in Toronto of the Group of 20
countries, the leaders endorsed a goal of cutting government deficits in half by
2013 and stabilizing the ratio of public debt to GDP (gross domestic product) by
2016. Canada’s prime minister, Stephen Harper, had proposed the targets and was
supported by European leaders in particular.
The
summit communiqué
said in response to
concerns of the United States, Japan, India and some other G-20
countries, that deficit reduction should be “tailored to
national circumstances” and the timetable is an
expectation, rather than as a firm deadline.
Heavily indebted Japan was specifically exempted.
The communiqué noted that following through on
fiscal stimulus and communicating “growth friendly”
fiscal consolidation plans in advanced countries that will be implemented going
forward, it said sound fiscal finances are essential to sustain recovery,
provide flexibility to respond to new shocks, ensure the capacity to meet the
challenges of aging populations, and avoid leaving future generations with a
legacy of deficits and debt.
However, it
acknowledged that the path of adjustment must be carefully calibrated to sustain
the recovery in private demand. It said there is a risk that synchronized fiscal
adjustment across several major economies could adversely impact the recovery.
There is also a risk that the failure to implement consolidation where necessary
would undermine confidence and hamper growth. Reflecting this balance, the
statement said advanced economies have committed to fiscal plans that will at
least halve deficits by 2013 and stabilize or reduce government debt-to-GDP
ratios by 2016.
“The US may be concentrated on premature
fiscal tightening, but most other countries are looking with a nervous eye to
the sovereign debt mess in Europe,” said Kenneth
Rogoff, a Harvard economist, former chief economist of the International
Monetary Fund and co-author of the celebrated book:
This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.
“Aiming for a gradually improving debt-to-GDP ratio by 2016 is hardly
wild-eyed fiscal conservatism.”
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron watched the second-half of the Germany-England World Cup game on Sunday when Germany thrashed England in a resounding 4-1 victory. "I am still all excited," Merkel said to reporters. "I can only say to the German team, go on like this - - it was great. Today everything went perfectly in the heads and in the legs."
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Managing Director
of the IMF said: “I am encouraged by the conclusions of the G-20
Summit, including the active engagement of the leaders in developing the G-20 Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth.”
The leaders agreed in Toronto to develop a
comprehensive action plan to be finalised at the Seoul Summit next November.
“IMF analysis in support of the
G-20 Mutual Assessment Process shows that appropriate collective action
could increase global GDP by 2.5 per cent over the medium term, creating tens of
millions of jobs, lifting tens of millions more out of poverty,”
Strauss-Kahn said.
He noted that more robust growth is needed
both to reduce unemployment and to lessen the burden of large public debts.
“The G-20 Mutual Assessment Process is the mechanism
through which the growth challenge can be addressed. It points to three areas
for action. First, fiscal consolidation in advanced countries is unavoidable.
This means putting in place now credible fiscal plans, mostly starting in 2011,
since the recovery is still fragile. Second, economies with surpluses need to
boost internal demand, for example by spending on social safety nets, improving
infrastructure, and allowing exchange rate flexibility. And third, structural
reforms, especially in the advanced economies—encompassing changes in goods and
labor markets that will lift growth, and financial reform that will make it
sustainable.”
The leaders pledged that banks must hold
sufficient capital to withstand future losses in a crisis as severe as that
which brought the world’s leading banks to their knees in 2008.
The communiqué confirmed that the
requirement for banks to increase capital ratios, known as Basel III will be
phased in : “The amount of capital will be
significantly higher and the quality of capital will be significantly improved
when the reforms are fully implemented."
There are ongoing arguments as to what will count
as the new capital buffer to make banks more robust in withstanding financial
crises.
“We agreed that all members will adopt
the new standards and these will be phased in over a timeframe that is
consistent with sustained recovery and limited market disruption,”
the communiqué said, adding that the transition to the new rules would be
informed by economic assessments currently being undertaken by the Financial
Stability Board.
The rules are to be completed at the Seoul
Summit.
While the leaders said they aimed to adopt
the rules by the end of 2012, they cautioned
that the standards would be “phased in over a
time frame that is consistent with sustained
recovery and limits market disruption.”
The Financial Times reports that the number of
European banks subjected to stress tests is likely to rise, with sources
suggesting that as many as 100 institutions will be involved in a broader
exercise to shore up market confidence.
One German government official said those tests,
which are being conducted by the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS),
would be expanded to cover “significant market share” in each market –
about half of all bank balance sheets in each country.
Kevin Grice, senior international economist at Capital Economics, says it's important that G20 countries introduce banking regulations gradually in order to avoid stalling the recovery. He speaks to CNBC's Karen Tso, Martin Soong and Sri Jegarajah:
G-20
Founded in
1999 in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, the G-20 - Group of Twenty
- began as a forum for finance ministers and central bank governors who met once
a year to discuss international economic issues. It later evolved into the
premier leaders forum for international economic cooperation and the first
meeting of G-20 leaders was hosted by President George W. Bush in Washington,
DC, on November 14-15, 2008.
The G-20
represents about 90% of global GDP, 80% of world trade (including trade within
the European Union) as well as two-thirds of the world's population, according
to the IMF.
The G-20
comprises 19 countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France,
Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South
Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the UK and the US, plus the European Union,
represented by the rotating Council presidency and the European Central Bank.
The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund and the President of
the World Bank, plus the chairs of the International Monetary and Financial
Committee and Development Committee of the IMF and World Bank, also participate
at G-20 meetings.