World trade volumes fell in April for the first time since January, an indication that the economic recovery may be losing momentum after restocking phase.

World trade fell 1.7% month on month in April, after an upwardly revised 4.0% increase in March according to the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis..

World trade volume: Based on preliminary data, world trade volume decreased by 1.7% in April from the previous month, following an upwardly revised increase of 4.0% in March, which is close to the highest monthly figure in our series (initial estimate: +3.5%). Import volumes decreased worldwide in April, with the notable exception of Japanese imports - -  quite the opposite of last month’s pattern. On the export side, growth was remarkably high in, again, Japan, while Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America continue to perform well also. In April, world trade was 6% below the peak level reached in April 2008 and 19% above the trough reached in May 2009.

The CPB says that monthly trade figures are volatile and focus on ‘momentum’ is therefore preferable.1 Momentum remains strongly positive. In the three months up to April, world trade was up by 4.9% from the preceding three months. As has been the case for several months, momentum was highest in emerging Asia and Latin America.

Momentum of Eurozone exports improved markedly in April.

World industrial production: On the basis of preliminary data, world industrial production grew by 0.8% in April 2010, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in March. Production continues to grow in all regions, most strongly in Japan and emerging Asia. In April, industrial production was very close to the peak level reached in March 2008 and 13% above the March 2009 trough.

World-trade database (Excel file)