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Markets News Tuesday: UK prepares for toughest budget package of tax increases and spending cuts in a generation
By Finfacts Team
Jun 22, 2010 - 11:14:25 AM
The Gladstone Budget box will be used by Chancellor George Osborne for the final time at the June Budget; The iconic red Budget box was made for William Gladstone around 1860, it has been used by every Chancellor since, with the exception of James Callaghan and Gordon Brown. However, the box is in an advanced state of disrepair and experts at The National Archives have advised that continued use of the box could result in its destruction.
The UK prepares for toughest budget package
of tax increases and spending cuts in a
generation is expected to be unveiled by
Chancellor George Osborne in his first
Budget today. He will say the measures - designed to
tackle Britain's record deficit of £155bn -
will be based on fairness, with the
better-off paying more.
UK embarks on long rutted road to cut its deficit: Davy chief
economist, Rossa White, comments - -"The UK's first
emergency Budget of this crisis takes place today. It must be
credible. Since the election, it has been notable that the bond
market has given the new government the benefit of the doubt: UK
long-dated gilts rallied and have been stable for over a month. The
new Chancellor must get two things right for a start: outline
concrete measures to bring the deficit down this year and produce a
transparent plan for 2015 that goes much further than the latest EC
council opinion on deficit reduction.
The latest EC council opinion on the UK at the end of April
was a rebuke. It said "although the programme (its stability plan
update) does set out plans for a fiscal consolidation from
2010/2011, the update does not present a medium-term objective for
the budgetary position that would bring public finances on a
sustainable path". Today's Budget must correct that problem by
delivering a bigger cut in the structural deficit by 2015. In its
latest submission to the EC (under the labour government), the UK
was looking to reduce its structural deficit by about 1% per annum
in the four years to 2015. Today's plan will push up that target by
about half a percentage point to 1.5% on average in that period.
It is remarkable that the UK is starting its consolidation
fully two years after Ireland pushed through its first (minor)
measures to cut government spending. Yet its plan to cut the
structural deficit over five years will be similar to what Ireland
enacted over 18 months (fiscal consolidation of about 6% of GDP).
Despite Ireland's measures, last year's underlying GGB deficits
(ex-banking re-caps) were still similar: 11.8% in Ireland versus
11.5% in the UK. One of the two key tests for today's Budget is
whether the UK can credibly reduce that number for 2010 (Ireland's
is likely to slip below 11%)."
The new UK budget will result in huge amount of unemployment in the public sector, says David Buik, partner at BGC Partners. He tells CNBC's Anna Edwards & Chloe Cho that it is imperative that finance minister Osborne gives businesses incentives to employ people into the private sector:
Economic View: UK takes the Budget spotlight; Goodbody economist, Deirdre
Ryan, comments - - "While consolidation of the budget deficit has been
underway in Ireland for some time now and more recently in other Euro area
member states, today it is the UK that will take the limelight when it delivers
its own Emergency Budget. Ireland is all too familiar with the pressures that
can be brought about by markets to tackle public finances and while the UK has
not experienced such market pressure as yet, a deficit that is heading for 11.5%
of GDP this year is certainly one that warrants attention sooner rather than
later. Total consolidation amounting to £20bn (or 1% of GDP), has been
indicated, with suggestions that the measures will have a greater focus on
spending reductions rather than revenue gathering, although we will have further
clarity on spending reductions in the autumn Spending Review. Domestically, the
plans for Ireland’s own Budget 2011 are underway, with departments in the
process of submitting proposals to the Finance Minister. Consolidation totalling
€3bn (or 2% of GDP) is planned for Budget 2011 with €1bn of these savings set to
come from lower capital spending. Recent indications also suggest that the bulk
of the remaining €2bn will come from the current spending budget, where
significant inroads have already been made. In May, voted current spending was
down 9% yoy. Although Irish bond yields have suffered in the bout of concerns
over Eurozone sovereigns, the Irish government has, on the whole, received
strong plaudits for the measures taken to date in addressing its public
finances. The UK now faces the same test, with the Budget due to get underway at
12.30pm today."
German exporters are doing very well, but the country is not immune to the European debt crisis, Chris Williamson from Markit told CNBC Tuesday. German consumers need to join in the recovery, he added:
BP: Oil giant BP reported overnight that two
systems continue to collect oil and gas flowing from the damaged oil well in the
Gulf of Mexico and transport them to vessels on the surface. The first is the
lower marine riser package (LMRP) containment cap located on top of the
Deepwater Horizon’s failed blow-out preventer (BOP). This system, which was
installed on June 3, takes oil and gas to the Discoverer Enterprise. A second
system, which started on June 16, is connected directly to the BOP and carries
oil and gas through a manifold and hoses to the Q4000 vessel on the surface. The
Q4000 uses a specialised clean-burning system to flare both oil and gas captured
by this second system.
On June 19th, a total of approximately 11,050 barrels of oil was collected and
25.6 million cubic feet of natural gas was flared on the Discoverer Enterprise.
This is less than recent averages because process facilities were shutdown for
part of the day. In the same 24-hour period, 9,990 barrels of oil and 17.8
million cubic feet of natural gas were flared on the Q4000. The total volume of
oil recovered from both the LMRP containment cap system and the Q4000 since they
became operational is approximately 249,500 barrels.
The New York Times reports that anger swelled
over the weekend when BP’s chief executive, Tony
Hayward, took a day off to watch his yacht
compete in what the newspaper termed an
exclusive race off the southern coast of England
on Saturday. Rahm Emanuel, the White House Chief
of Staff, called it yet another public relations
gaffe by Hayward.
Apparently in response to widespread
criticism, BP said on Monday that Hayward had
canceled his planned appearance at the World
National Oil Companies Congress, a three-day
conference in London this week. “Mr.
Hayward’s very heavy schedule of commitments to
Gulf of Mexico activities have led him to ask
Steve Westwell, the BP Group Chief of Staff, to
make the speech in his stead,” Sheila
Williams, a BP spokeswoman in London, said in an
e-mail message.
German exporters are doing very well, but the country is not immune to the European debt crisis, Chris Williamson from Markit told CNBC Tuesday. German consumers need to join in the recovery, he added:
US
The Dow Jones slipped 8 points or 0.08% to 10,442 on Monday.
The S&P 500 slid 0.39% and the Nasdaq declined 0.90%.
Asia
The MSCI Asia
Pacific Index dipped 0.9% Tuesday after rising 2.8% Monday on news of China's scrapping of the renminbi
peg to the US dollar.
The Nikkei
dropped 1.22%; China's Shanghai Composite advanced 0.10%; Australia's S&P/ASX 200
Index dropped 1.18% and India's Sensex Index declined 0.81%.
China is avoiding a major trade war escalating with its pledge to allow the yuan to appreciate, Emil Wolter from RBS told CNBC Tuesday. The yuan moves will be gradual, but could hurt Chinese exports, he added:
Gold is trading at
$1.235.10 up $2.50 from Monday's spot price close in New York.
Irish Financials; Regulator speaks on funding: Goodbody's Eamonn Hughes
comments -- "There has been much commentary in recent weeks around the
levels of maturing debt for the financial system in the coming months (€29bn
alone in September according to the Minister for Finance), particularly with the
government guarantee scheme set to expire at the end of the September. With
recent commentary from the Minister indicating that discussions with Brussels
were far advanced around a possible extension to year end, we note comments
yesterday from the Assistant Director General of the Central Bank’s financial
supervision (picked up in the Irish Independent) that “we’re satisfied that
their risks are being managed”. He commented that the regulator had asked the
banks to address concerns around the maturing debts and that he was confident
the banks will pass through the upcoming re-financings “without incident”,
though noting they must still overhaul their funding profiles. The regulator
added that they have been ensuring that the banks make sure they have adequate
collateral in place to tap the ECB should bond markets remain closed in the
coming months. We note that eligible collateral at BOI is around the €40bn level
and note that AIB had €48bn at the end of 2009 both of these figures will be
further enhanced by NAMA throughout this year.
On capital, we note comments that the regulator expects to have completed its
reviews of the capital requirements of IL&P, Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide by
September and has begun conversations with foreign owned institutions about
their capital reserves. The regulator indicated that IL&P’s Prudential Capital
Assessment Review (PCAR) should be completed next month, but could drift should
IL&P become involved in a deal (with the EBS). We estimate that IL&P requires to
raise €810m of capital (a higher figure gross of liability management/other),
which we believe will require third party involvement in the institution.
Before we finish on the macro, the UK Budget today is likely to see a bank levy
imposed on the UK banks. As international authorities push for a similar levy,
it will be interesting to see how long it is before a similar mechanism appears
in Ireland."
Irish Financials; Banking Supervision – the new approach: Eamonn Hughes adds - -
"The Central Bank yesterday published a policy paper on its new approach to
banking supervision in Ireland, with the paper describing the changes underway
in the Regulator’s office. It picks up from the recent reports into the reasons
for the financials crisis in Ireland and the regulatory failures that
accompanied it. As such, it reiterated the more intrusive approach to regulation
going forward, particularly for those banks receiving retail deposits. The paper
identifies four main supervisory themes, with the CB set to publish the results
of its work subsequently. The approach by the Irish regulator to adapt the banks
for a safer banking system mirrors similar developments internationally. The
transparent approach by the regulator is welcome and will hopefully guide the
banking system to a more stable and sustainable model and footing.
Firstly, it will undertake an in-depth review of governance and risk management
at the major retail banks later this year, with the findings set to be published
in January 2011. This will look into competency of board membership, skills in
risk management, the effectiveness of risk management arrangements and
attitudinal and compliance developments among staff. Secondly, the CB is looking
into lending standards. Within this, the CB has already commenced a review on
new mortgage lending practices, focusing initially on first time buyers, with
the findings due to be published in July. Thirdly, it will review the quality of
bank’s strategies, where banks will need to evaluate the impact of the changing
environment on their business models, broaden their lending capabilities and
seek diversity in their earnings to attract lower capital charges and higher
credit ratings. Findings from this review are due in January 2011. The final
theme centres on remuneration practices, which in the past focused too heavily
on asset acquisition and results from this work are due in November. All these
programmes will feed into greater focus on looking at the viability of
individual business lines, the quality of portfolios, maturity mismatches and
quality of financial reporting."