See Search Box
lower down this column for searches of Finfacts news pages. Where there may be
the odd special character missing from an older page, it's a problem that
developed when Interactive Tools upgraded to a new content management system.
Welcome
Finfacts is Ireland's leading business information site and
you are in its business news section.
Green: EU countries using the euro: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain
Mauve: EU countries not using the euro
Ireland and leaving the Euro: During
times of crises, there is generally no drought in easy panaceas and while true
believers will never be convinced by inconvenient truths, we nevertheless
outline an number of questions that should be posed to the proverbial pub-stool
economists.
We have said
previously that while the EMU (European Monetary Union) has been a success, it
is clear that the criteria for entry have been too low. Countries with weak
governance systems; economies with deep structural flaws and a weak central
surveillance system, coincident with an international credit boom, have seen
increased living standards alongside unsustainable debt. Now, in the absence of
the devaluation tool, it can seem like the Eagles' famous 1977 hit: "Hotel
California" - - "You can check out
any time you like/But you can never leave!"
The following are 10 questions for pub-stool economists:
1. Does leaving the euro imply
leaving the European Union? It appears so as EU citizens' ultimate Court of
Appeal is the European Court of Justice and within the EU, a citizen would have
a right to object to contracts in euro
arbitrarily changed to another currency.
2. Why are advocates of leaving
silent about the inevitable turmoil and logistics that would follow a decision
to revert to a new national currency? How would a siege economy work with exchange
controls to prevent movement of funds overseas?
Would the key foreign-owned sector
of the economy be subject to the same rules as residents?
It would take months to switch-over to a new currency and a
fragile economy would sink amidst market mayhem, widespread economic dislocation
and uncertainty.
The biggest Irish companies such as CRH and Ryanair would move overseas and the banking system would move from the respirator to the graveyard.
4. Would the public debt owed to
foreign lenders be subject to a default or still payable in euros?
5. Why would devaluation help
Ireland when most exports are made by the foreign-owned sector; import content
is high and the majority of the trade is within multinational companies?
The majority of Iceland's goods
trade is its own fishing resources i.e no import content
6. Sterling's trade-weighted
exchange rate has fallen about 25% in the past 3 years. So why is the UK not experiencing an export boom compared with say Germany?
Advocates of devaluation generally
ignore the reality that much of the claimed benefit arises when there is a
positive international environment.
Even where a commodity producer
gains via a devaluation, unless there is internal economic reform, advantages
are generally short-lived.
Greece devalued the drachma twice in
the 1980s and its key structural problems remained.
Selling finished goods and opening
up new markets is a much bigger challenge than just price. Ask someone with
experience of exporting not an armchair "expert."
In the case of Greece and most
other Mediterranean Eurozone members (with Italy as the partial exception) large
export gains from even a big competitive devaluation look very unlikely.
7. After each devaluation,
inflationary risks rapidly appear, which require more monetary tightening than
would be the case within the euro. What level of interest rate would
offset the short-term benefit of devaluation?
Expectations of further
devaluations would arise, increasing both interest-risk, currency-risk and country-risk
premiums.
8. How much was the export boom in
the 1990s attributable to the huge influx of US direct investment (Intel, HP,
Dell etc) or was the 10% devaluation of the punt in 1993 the main factor?
It would be the height of economic
illiteracy to claim that the punt devaluation was the key issue.
9. How much did Irish government
bond spreads widen after the 1993 devaluation? What premium would foreign
lenders require after leaving the euro?
We would simply be locked out of
international debt markets for years.
10. Why would it benefit Ireland
long-term to abandon its biggest market?
The Eurozone is Ireland's
biggest market and it has been largely unexploited by indigenous Irish firms.
We hear of the problems of
"peripheral" countries, but the Baltic republics are eager to join and
Poland, one of Europe's successful emerging economies, may be in the EMU by
2015.
Apart from rejecting its biggest
market, absent the liquidity support of the ECB, why would the IMF be a more
benign supporter?