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Markets News Monday: Chinese renminbi futures surge; Oil rig worker tell BBC that BP was alerted to Gulf leak before explosion
By Finfacts Team
Jun 21, 2010 - 11:51:02 AM
China's currency, the renminbi
(yuan is
Mandarin for unit;
renminbi is
Mandarin for peoples'
currency) surged in the futures market on Monday after China signalled at the
weekend that it would break the currency’s two-year peg to the dollar.
The People's Bank of China issued a statement
Saturday saying the time was appropriate to proceed with the reform of the
renminbi exchange rate regime and increase the Chinese currency's exchange rate
flexibility given the strong economic rebound at home and the gradual recovery
abroad. Domestically, by allowing the renminbi exchange rate to reflect market
supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies, Chinese policymakers
have sent a clear signal that the country cannot wait any longer to shift away
from its heavy dependence on exports for growth.
China's currency appreciated
less than 20% from
mid-2005 to July 2008 when it was linked to a basket of currencies and allowed
float within a narrow range. It was then pegged to the US dollar in July 2008 at
a rate of 6.83 to protect exporters over the three year period.
The PBOC said in a follow-up statement on Sunday that a more flexible
currency will “direct resources to domestic- demand driven sectors such as
services” and help curb an excessive reliance on exports, signaling it
anticipates the currency will rise.
There was no change in the official renminbi exchange rate on Monday
but
twelve-month forwards rose 1.3% to Rmb6.6235 against the dollar, implying
that traders expected a 2.8% appreciation over the coming year.
Charlene Chu, senior director
at Fitch's Financial Institutions Ratings Team, says the most important thing to
note about China's decision to allow yuan appreciation is that mainland
authorities are confident about the economy's recovery. She speaks to CNBC's
Bernard Lo and Emily Chan:
Chinese move positive in short term, but plenty yet to be
clarified; Davy chief economist, Rossa White, comments -
-"China has announced that it will relax its currency peg against
the US dollar. It will revert to the 2005-2008 arrangement of a
managed float against a broader basket of currencies including the
euro and yen. We do not yet have any real specifics on by how much
and when the currency will be allowed to move. For risky assets, it
is a short-term positive at least.
Many cynically see this as a pre-emptive strike by China ahead
of this weekend's G-20 meeting. It has been under pressure to relax
its hold on the currency, highlighted by the prospect of a
retaliatory trade bill passing through US parliament. Either way, it
should help reduce protectionist tensions, which have been bubbling
for a time and were threatening to undermine global recovery. By how
much will depend on the magnitude of the revaluation and the
reaction of the hardliners in Washington.
The reaction in the equity market is likely to be positive.
Global recovery originally emanated from a recovery in Chinese
domestic demand early in 2009. A stronger currency will boost its
purchasing power further, helping to suck in rest of world imports
(that is a positive for commodities). In a way, it is a statement on
global recovery by the Chinese authorities: they must believe other
economies are strong enough to buy their exports at a higher price.
The US bond market, and the dollar by extension, may suffer
somewhat. China may not have to recycle as much of its foreign
currency earnings into US treasuries, and the dollar may nudge lower
in line with improving risk appetite anyway."
A strengthening
yuan is unlikely to affect commodity demand and prices, says Klaudius Sobczyk,
senior fund manager at Veritas Investment Trust. He explains why to CNBC's Anna
Edwards, Chloe Cho & Yousef Gamal El-Din:
Economic View: Fragile, but stabilising; Goodbody economist:
Deirdre Ryan T comments - - "The tide of improved sentiment continued
into the latter part of the week with yield spreads unchanged or narrower across
all peripheral Eurozone economies on Friday. Financial stress indicators have
also improving marginally; The TED spread (the spread between 3mth US Libor and
the OIS rate) is now down 4bps from its peak early last week and stands at 44bps
this morning. Money market spreads, too, have narrowed slightly. For the first
time since June 4, the 3 month Euribor spread (versus the OIS rate) stands at
30bps this morning. After a turbulent period, markets are now showing very
initial signs of stabilisation.
The decision by China to allow a gradual appreciation of its
currency versus the dollar will likely add to the improved confidence levels
today. Nevertheless, there is much to go yet in relation to rebuilding
confidence levels in the Eurozone. Restoring the regulatory framework will be a
key factor in this and we note press reports this morning that ECB President
Trichet is to propose the setting up of an independent fiscal council for the
region in a further sign of the move towards enhanced budgetary surveillance
that is in store. It has been a testing time for Eurozone policymakers, but
maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel after all."
Martin Wassell from
International Chamber of Commerce spoke to CNBC about the key issues at the
upcoming G-20 meeting in Toronto this weekend:
BP: A worker on board the Deepwater Horizon rig, has
told the BBC that he identified a leak in the oil rig's safety equipment weeks
before the explosion on April 20th which resulted in the catastrophic leak in
the Gulf of Mexico.
Tyrone Benton said the leak was not fixed at the time, but that instead the
faulty device was shut down and a second one relied on. BP said rig owners
Transocean were responsible for the operation and maintenance of that piece of
equipment and said it tested the device successfully before the accident.
On April 20th, when the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded killing 11 people, the
blowout preventer, as the device is known, failed.
The most critical piece of safety equipment on the rig designed to
avert disasters just like the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico:
The BBC Panorama programme to to broadcast Monday night says the blowout
preventer (BOP) has giant shears which are designed to cut and seal off the
well's main pipe. The control pods are effectively the brains of the blowout
preventer and contain both electronics and hydraulics. This is where Benton said
the problem was found.
"We saw a leak on the pod, so by seeing the leak we informed the company
men," Benton said of the earlier problem he had identified. "They have a
control room where they could turn off that pod and turn on the other one, so
that they don't have to stop production."
Professor Tad Patzek, petroleum expert at the University of Texas, was blunt
in his assessment: "That is unacceptable. If you see any evidence of the
blowout preventer not functioning properly, you should fix it by whatever means
possible."
Benton said his supervisor e-mailed both BP and Transocean about the leaks
when they were discovered.
Asia
The MSCI Asia
Pacific Index gained 2.8% Monday on news of
China's scrapping of the renminbi peg to the US dollar - - the biggest
advance since Nov. 30.
The Nikkei
gained 2.43%; China's Shanghai Composite advanced 2.90%; Australia's S&P/ASX 200
Index rose 1.23% and India's Sensex Index gained 1.74%.
The BDI closed at
3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009. The index averaged 59%
lower in 2009 than a year earlier.
Bloomberg reports
that the BDI has tumbled 28% during its longest losing streak this year, may
decline further, according to technical analysis by Barclays Capital.
The index had its
biggest weekly decline since 2008 as iron ore demand weakened in the face of
higher raw material costs and lower selling prices for steelmakers.
According to the Baltic Exchange, the slid 18% last week -- 15 straight
days of falls. That's the most since the last week of October 2008.
Gold is trading at
$1.257.60 up $1.10 from Friday's spot price close in New York.
Aer Lingus
(Buy, Closing Price €0.76): Reassuring trading update; Goodbody's Eamonn Hughes
comments -- "Aer Lingus (AL) released a trading update on Friday, in conjunction with its AGM,
indicating that it continues to trade ahead of the same period in 2009. This is
helped by its cost programme and it commented that it is more disciplined on
yields this year. AL released a Q1 IMS in early May, in which it highlighted
that short haul (SH) yields were up 3%, with long haul (LH) yields up 12%. It
reiterated that load factors in the two months since then have improved yoy and
they “continue to drive improvements in unit revenue performance”,
notwithstanding the closure of swathes of Northern European airspace due to the
volcano disruption.
AL indicates that it is pleased with the forward bookings profile for LH
operations for the forthcoming months. Given this comment, we are likely to move
our existing 10% LH yield improvement closer to 14%. It is a bit more cautious
on the short haul side, saying that they “currently see a modest decrease in the
short haul booking profile for the summer months, but continues to generate
higher yields” yoy. We are likely to pare our 5% short haul yield improvement
yoy to 4%. Note on the bookings profile that SH RPKs were +2.2% in Q1 and we
have flat for the full year, so that looks about right given the AGM statement.
These LH and SH adjustments probably balance each other out, leaving us sitting
on an Operating Loss for the year of -€33m, after -€81m last year.
Interestingly, this €48m improvement yoy compares to the €37m improvement
achieved at the Q1 stage. Q2 yoy will be impacted by the volcano disruptions,
but it clearly feels like the risk bias here on estimates remains on the
positive tack."