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World oil prices rise on Chinese export data and upward revision in oil demand outlook by the International Energy Agency
By Finfacts Team
Jun 10, 2010 - 3:41:09 PM
World oil prices moved above $75 today, boosted by strong Chinese export data and an upward revision in the oil demand outlook by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
New York's West Texas Intermediate benchmark for light sweet crude for delivery in July, rose $1.49 to $75.87 a barrel while in London Brent North Sea crude for July added 31 cents to $74.58.
China reported today that exports jumped 48.5% from a year ago in April, easing concern that demand from its biggest customer, the European Union, would be hit by the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Meanwhile, the IEA, the Paris-based energy watchdog for 28 industrialised countries including Ireland, reported that global oil demand was firming and that Chinese demand would be crucial. The energy watchdog said that global oil demand was rising on surprisingly resilient growth in advanced countries but warned that uncertainties abound and China was pivotal.
The agency said the BP oil-spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico might restrict exploration and production slightly in the medium term.
Summary of June IEA World Oil Market Report:
Crude oil prices tumbled $18/bbl in the first three weeks of May amid deepening concerns over Eurozone debt issues, before partially recovering by end-month. By early June, benchmark crudes were trading in a lower range of around $72-73/bbl.
Global oil demand is revised up by 60 kb/d to 86.4 mb/d in 2010 on stronger-than-expected preliminary OECD data, albeit downside risks remain. With 2009 readings largely unchanged, yearly global demand growth in 2010 is now seen at +1.7 mb/d (+2.0%), deriving almost entirely from the non-OECD.
Total oil supply fell by an estimated 575 kb/d to 86.3 mb/d in May, with lower non-OPEC output due to seasonal maintenance. However, 2010 non-OPEC output is revised up by 0.1 mb/d to 52.3 mb/d amid slower expected North Sea decline. This year’s growth of 0.8 mb/d from non-OPEC comes on top of 0.8 mb/d from OPEC NGLs.
OPEC crude oil supply was down slightly versus April, with higher Iraqi production offset by supply outages in Nigeria and Angola. In all, May crude oil output fell by 30 kb/d, to 29.02 mb/d, leaving spare capacity around 5.4 mb/d. The underlying 2010 ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ remains 28.7 mb/d, peaking at 29.1 mb/d in 3Q10.
April OECD industry stocks rose by 47.9 mb to 2 726 mb as both crude and refinery supply came in stronger. Forward demand cover is assessed at 60.5 days, up by more than a day from downward revised end-March readings. Preliminary May data indicate OECD inventories and floating storage rose by 19.0 mb and 6.5 mb, respectively.
Forecast global 2Q10 refinery crude throughput is raised to 73.5 mb/d, representing an annual increase of 1.5 mb/d. In 3Q10, crude runs are forecast to rise further to 74.4 mb/d as seasonal maintenance activity falls back significantly.