Source: CSO

The seasonally adjusted Irish Live Register total increased by 6,600 from 432,500 in April to 439,100 in May to an all-time record high.

The Central Statistics Office says that in the year to May 2010 there was an unadjusted increase in the Live Register of 43,788 (+11.1%). This compares with an increase of 50,781 (+13.3%) in the year to April 2010.

January of 2009 represented the spike in claimant increases in any month, with a record 33,000, or 11.3%, rise - - 26,700 additions in February, 20,000 in March; 15,800 in April; 13,500 in May; 11,400 in June; 10,500 in July; 5,400 in August and 600 in September. The total fell 3,000 in October; rose 900 in November andanother 3,300 were added in December, to bring the end 2009 total to 426,700. The total fell by 500 in April 2010.

Other features include: There was an increase of 4,400 males and 2,200 females in the seasonally adjusted series in May and the The average net weekly increase in the seasonally adjusted series in May 2010 was 1,650, which compares with a weekly decrease of 100 in the previous month.

The standardised unemployment rate in May was 13.7%. This compares with 13.1% in the fourth quarter of 2009, the latest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the Quarterly National Household Survey.

In the month, the estimated number of casual and part-time workers on the Live Register was 41,602 males and 37,273 females.

The CSO says the Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment. It includes part-time workers (those who work up to three days a week), seasonal and casual workers entitled to Jobseekers Benefit or Allowance. Unemployment is measured by the Quarterly National Household Survey and the latest seasonally adjusted figure, for October to December 2009, is 281,700 persons unemployed.

Lynsey Clemenger, Ulster Bank economist commented :

Numbers signing on and unemployment rate rose by more than expected in May…

May was a weaker than expected month in terms of Irish labour market developments. The latest Live Register (LR) data showed a 6,600 rise in the number claiming unemployment benefit, the largest monthly rise since August of last year. While this followed a period in which the numbers singing on fell back for two out of three months, the total on the LR hit a new record high of 439,100.

On the unemployment rate front, this rose from 13.4% to 13.7%. While representing more of an increase than we had anticipated and the biggest uptick in the rate since November of last year, again it is important to point out that this is coming from a situation where the rate remained steady at 13.4% for the four preceding months. Indeed, looking at the first five months of this year the unemployment rate has risen by 0.5%. This compares with a 3% jump in the corresponding period of 2009. So while the situation remains weak and is still deteriorating, the rate of deterioration is clearly easing back.

Labour market developments will continue to lag improvement in the real economy…

Nevertheless, today’s numbers are disappointing and they serve as a reminder that while incoming indicators (ranging from the manufacturing and services PMIs to retail sales) are showing an economy that is clearly on an improving trajectory, developments in the labour market are (as they usually do) lagging the emerging upturn. In this regard, the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS) due for release at the end of the month will provide a more comprehensive overview of the labour market situation.

Contained in this release will be the official unemployment rate estimate for the first quarter of the year, which the LR measure is signalling will rise from 13.1% in Q4 2009 to 13.4%. Given that we expect it will take time before definitive signs of improvement in the labour market show through, we see the unemployment rate rising further in the quarters ahead - albeit that further increases from here will be relatively minor. We continue to forecast a peak of between 13.5 and 14%, on the official QNHS numbers.