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News : Property Last Updated: Aug 18, 2010 - 4:33:40 AM


Irish house prices may continue to fall for another 18 months
By Finfacts Team
Apr 7, 2010 - 2:09:06 AM

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Irish house prices may continue to fall for another 18 months according to Brian Lucey, professor of finance at the Trinity College School of Business.

Lucey says in a commentary in the latest Daft.ie report that on the basis of a straight line projection of average declines in value since the peak, another 18 months of declining prices would be expected."That would be 50 months of house price falls, or just over 4 years, towards the lower end of historical experience. It is probable that as we decline towards the trough, the speed at which house prices fall slows down. And this is what we are starting to see - in the last six months, the average decline has been lower than the previous six months, itself lower then the period before."

Prof. Lucey says nationally, in the first three months of 2010, the average asking price of a house was a shade under €235,000, down one third from the peak of early 2007. The fall during the first quarter was 3.4%, the smallest quarterly decline in almost two years. Year on year, the fall in the first quarter of 2010 was 18%, a slight decline on the record year on year fall of 19% in the third quarter of 2009.

Last month, a report by economists at Deutsche Bank said that house prices in Europe remain above long-term average and further price declines are likely in particular in markets in Spain, Ireland, the Netherlands, Italy, France and to a lesser extent in the UK. 

research paper by UCD economist Prof. Morgan Kelly, published by the ESRI with the Quarterly Economic Commentary in July 2007, suggested that a correction in the property market would be severe, with prices falling by 5% each year for the following decade.

Property markets can move from booms to busts very suddenly, Kelly warned.

He said that up to 60% could be wiped off the real value of houses over the following eight years if the Republic's housing market followed the same pattern as those in other countries.

Prof. Kelly added that the housing market could go into rapid freefall, with house prices falling by 5% per annum over the best part of the next decade. Adjusted for inflation, this would translate into an annual fall in real average selling prices of 6-7% or 40-60 per cent over eight to nine years.

The bigger the boom in house prices, the bigger the subsequent bust, he said.

The latest Daft.ie report shows that the fall in asking prices has again varied across the country. In Dublin, Wicklow, Waterford and Cork, price falls were in line with the national average of 3.4%, while prices were closer to static in other counties, including Sligo and Roscommon. In Galway city asking prices were hardest hit, falling by 8.8% in the first 3 months of the year.

The length of time properties remain on the market increased slightly in the first three months and nationally the average time to sell a property is now 10 months. However, this may be a sign that long-standing properties are shifting. By the start of April, of the 3,000 properties listed for sale in January, one in three was either sold or sale agreed. The percentage marked sale agreed is twice as high in Dublin, where price falls have been highest since the peak and the total stock for sale continues to fall steadily.

Commenting on the latest figures, Ronan Lyons economist with Daft.ie said: "Overall, prices continue to fall and the total number of properties on the market remains high. Nonetheless, in some parts of the country, especially Dublin, asking prices have been significantly discounted from peak levels and we are now seeing a steady decrease in the total number of properties sitting on the market. Furthermore, the news that almost one in three properties listed in January is either sale agreed or sold suggests that those who price their properties keenly will find a buyer."

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