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News : International Last Updated: Mar 22, 2010 - 5:24:31 PM


Markets News Monday: Morgan Stanley economist say sharp appreciation of China's currency would be disastrous for the United States
By Finfacts Team
Mar 22, 2010 - 9:01:17 AM

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President Barack Obama speaking close to midnight Sunday, from the White House, after the House of Representatives passed a landmark health reform bill. “In the end what this day represents is another stone firmly laid in the foundation of the American dream,” the president said. “Tonight, we answered the call of history as so many generations of Americans have before us. When faced with crisis, we did not shrink from our challenges. We overcame them. We did not avoid our responsibilities, we embraced it. We did not fear our future, we shaped it.”

Vice President Joe Biden is on the left of the picture.

The appreciation of a country's currency is of "limited help" to solve global trade imbalance, as China is witnessing narrowing trade surplus with a stable yuan, China's Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said in Beijing on Sunday. 

Speaking at the China Development Forum 2010, Chen said the yuan exchange rate is not undervalued, while pressure on yuan appreciation is "irrational" and will bring no good to both sides. Chen noted that despite that yuan had appreciated by more than 20% from 2005 to 2008, China's trade surplus increased in the three-year period.

By contrast, as China has kept its currency stable since 2009, the country's total trade surplus fell more than 30% in 2009 from 2008, and it continued to decline another 50% year on year in the first two months this year, he said. "Personally I think China is likely to see trade deficit in March," Chen said.

China's trade surplus contracted 50.4% from a year earlier in the first two months this year to $21.76 billion, customs data showed. Chen said the exchange rate issue is something entirely within China's sovereign rights instead of matters that can be discussed between two nations.

"The United States should not politicize economic issues," he added.

Besides, China will not sit back and "turn a blind eye" if there is any sanction after the United States names China as a currency manipulator, he said.

The US Treasury Department may label China a currency manipulator in a semiannual report to the Congress next month.

State news agency Xinhua said the debate over China's currency policy is heating up among economists with Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Stephen Roach saying that a sharp upward revaluation of the yuan would lead to a disastrous outcome for the United States and it would end up as a "lose-lose situation" for both Washington and Beijing.

"I believe the currency adjustment that is being suggested by the West is the wrong way to go," Roach said in Beijing.

If China were to adjust its currency sharply higher, the Chinese share of the US multilateral trade deficits would shift to another country, a higher cost producer, which would have the effect of imposing a tax on American workers that the politicians are in theory trying to protect, according to Roach.

"This is a disastrous outcome for the United States and would certainly be a very bad outcome for Chinese exporters as well," he said.

Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang addresses the opening ceremony of the China Development Forum 2010, in Beijing, Sunday March 21, 2010. Photo: Xinhua

China would step up efforts to accelerate the transformation of its economic development pattern to achieve sound and fast growth, Vice Premier Li Keqiang said Sunday at the Development Forum. The two-day forum started on Sunday with a theme of "China and the World Economy: Growth, Restructuring and Cooperation."

Li said China has achieved remarkable results in combating the global economic downturn and the trend of recovery has been consolidated.

Expanding domestic demand would be the prime and long-term strategy for transforming the economic development mode, Li said, adding that continuous efforts to optimise the investment structure and adjust income distribution would help fuel the demand.

Li said industrial restructuring is a very crucial part of the economic transformation, which could be achieved through promoting technology innovations, the green economy and service industry.

Latest comments from Merkel point to continued lack of harmony over Greece: Davy chief economist, Rossa White, comments  - -"Greece's problems remain bubbling in the background, even if risk markets have discounted the issue somewhat in recent weeks. The main concern is lack of European cohesion. That was in evidence from comments by the German chancellor over the weekend. The IMF has resurfaced as a possible provider of financial help either alongside or without the EU itself.

It has become increasingly clear in recent weeks that Germany is much less committed than France to providing financial support to Greece. Meanwhile, the European Commission is caught somewhere in the crossfire. Last week's comments by President Barroso left the way open for IMF involvement, while stressing the need for the euro area to come up with something more concrete and quick. Now Angela Merkel has attempted to step up the pressure on Greece, while being careful to leave the door open to IMF intervention.

Politically, it may make sense for Germany to keep the IMF option open. Even if it is potentially embarrassing for the euro area, the reality is that German taxpayers would be less likely to have to write a cheque. But the upshot for the bond market is that we are no closer to a long-term solution to the euro area's difficulties. On Friday, spreads of the weaker countries nudged out again. European equities continue to underperform year-to-date: that situation will probably persist until agreement on a solution to the euro area public finance crisis is found."

President Barack Obama speaks on the House passage of his health care bill:

Economic View; Wednesday’s UK Budget unlikely to be the only one in 2010:Goodbody chief economist, Dermot O'Leary, comments  - -"Ireland and the UK have reacted in vastly different ways to the reality of a double-digit budget deficit. While Ireland has had two emergency budgets and another budget which contained fairly draconian measures to reduce the budget deficit over the past eighteen months, the UK has arguably made its fiscal situation worse by some of the measures it has taken.

One can argue that the downturn in the UK economy would have been even more severe were it not for this fiscal stimulus, but only modest growth has resulted thus far. Wednesday’s Budget in the UK is likely to be more of the same, with little in the way of plans to make real inroads into cutting the deficit this year. While there are many differences between the UK and Ireland, including being a member of a monetary union and pressure from the European Commission in the case of Ireland, a major factor this time is the timing of the election cycle. It is no surprise that the most recent surges in government spending in Ireland have come prior to general elections.

With the UK election taking place in May, Chancellor Darling will attempt to strike a balance between fiscal prudence and political savvy on Wednesday. The Budget deficit is likely to remain close to 12% of GDP (similar to Ireland’s), so one can expect Wednesday’s Budget not to be the last this year, for whatever Chancellor is in charge after May’s Election.

Elsewhere, watch out for the employment (Wednesday) and GDP/GNP (Thursday) data in Ireland later this week."

Discussing the health care cost vs. coverage debate, with Tony Fratto, former Bush deputy press secretary and CNBC's John Harwood, Carl Quintanilla, Tyler Mathisen, Hampton Pearson & Michelle Caruso-Cabrera:

Asia

Japan's markets were closed Monday for a public holiday.

The MSCI Asia Pacific-ex Japan slid 1.2%.

The Shanghai Composite gained 0.22%; Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index dipped 0.86% and India's Sensex Index slipped 0.47%.

Asia benchmarks

Finfacts Reports

IBEC calls for reforms to transform Irish pubic service; What about its own credibility?
Obama in stunning health reform victory; House backs historic change; Senate approval expected
Could the Irish public sector benchmarking fiasco provide a case for the DPP?
European Union-wide authority to deal with failed banks needed says IMF chief; "Pretense of progress" not sufficient

In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has dipped 0.54% Monday.

Tax Evasion: Credit Suisse has decided to restrict bankers' travel to Germany after the tax authorities there said they had begun investigating 1,100 tax evasion cases against the bank's clients and were investigating staff on suspicion of aiding evasion.

The ISEQ has fallen 0.67% in Dublin.

CRH is down 1.00%; AIB and BoI have each dropped almost 3.0%.

The Malaysian-Irish oil industry contractor today reported pre-tax profits rose by 9.2% to $44.5m for the year ending December 2009.

Revenues for the year gained 9.5% to €704.7m and the company said it had seen a solid performance for the year despite the volatility in world markets.

The firm said that it remains well positioned to continue to deliver strong growth in the coming year. It said it has a record order backlog, up 49.2%, year on year.

Kentz is listed on London's small companies market AIM.

European Benchmarks

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Currencies

The euro is trading at $1.3515 and at £0.9024.

For live currency updates, check the right-hand column of the Finfacts home page.

The US dollar fell to $1.6038 per euro on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 - an-all time record.

Commodities

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry commodities, hit an all-time High of 11,771 on the 21st of May, 2008. From that time it reversed and on the 5th of December, 2008 it hit a low of 663 - -  close to a 1986 low.

The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009.

The Baltic Dry Index, rose 3.9% last Friday according to the Baltic Exchange. The index jumped 18% last week - - the biggest advance since the five days to Nov. 13, 2009.

On last Friday, the BDI jumped 190 points or 5.73% to 3,506 - - a rise of 5.00% in the week and the highest close since mid-December.

On Monday last week, the BDI added 68 points or 1.94% to 3,574; On Tuesday the index rose 24 points and on Wednesday dipped 71 points or 2.03% to 3,427; the BDI dipped 31 points or 0.91% to 3,396. 

The BDI fell 17 points or 0.50% to 3,379 on Friday to close for its first weekly decline in five weeks.

In the Financial Times on Wednesday, Feb 17th, Javier Blas wrote that the weakness in the Baltic Dry Index, long seen as an indicator of global economic activity, does not reflect a downturn in global trade. Instead, the measure of freight costs is showing a strong supply of new vessels that helps explain the 40% drop in three months. “New supply is astonishingly high and it is overwhelming the otherwise robust demand for bulk commodities from China,” he wrote. “On the other hand, bullish investors should be cautious of any near-term turnround. Rather than a sign of stronger economic activity and commodities demand, it is likely to reflect cancelled orders, scrappage and port congestion.”

Crude oil for April 2010 delivery is currently trading on the Chicago York Mercantile Exchange (CME/Nymex) at $80.09 per barrel down 59 cents from Friday's close. In London, Brent for March delivery is trading on the International Commodities Exchange at $79.45.

Gold spot price

Gold is trading at $1107.60 down 30 cents from Friday's spot price close in New York.

Finfacts Gold Page

Irish Financials; Getting to crunch time: Goodbody's Eamonn Hughes comments  - -"We are getting to crunch time on NAMA. Press reports confirm that the government is set to announce its plans on the banking system on March 30 next as the workload on NAMA in particular sees the timeline drift from later this week, but it sounds like the end March timeline will hold. It appears that the BOI and Anglo Irish results will also be held over until next week as well.

The first point to address are the haircuts on the initial loans bound for NAMA and here the media commentary is pointing to higher than anticipated initial haircuts. BOI, EBS and Irish Nationwide received their draft acquisition schedules last week and it appears that BOI is set to incur a haircut in the 35-40% range on its initial loan transfer amount (we think circa €2bn). Our average haircut is 26.5% for its full portfolio, and while we highlighted in our note on Friday (Looking at loan losses (and life!) beyond NAMA), that the initial haircuts were likely to be higher than the average, given they incorporated the most distressed loans, a figure closer to 40% could leave our average vulnerable. On the other hand, it now appears that BOI is only transferring €12bn to NAMA and not the originally anticipated €15.5bn. Working some figures, as an example, if it took an average 30% haircut on its €12bn total transfer, then that implies a haircut of €3.6bn, compared to our current €4.1bn haircut. However, applying our average 16.3% loan loss ratio on its commercial real estate portfolio ex-NAMA would see a €0.6bn provision on the €3.5bn of loans not going into NAMA, bringing the total provision to €4.2bn, in line with our original estimate. Having said that, these loans would remain on the balance sheet and a 6% core equity ratio target at the trough of the cycle would require an additional €180m of capital on the balance sheet to support them. So on a headline basis, the commentary is already starting to eat into our fair value on the bank, if nothing else, from the RWAs remaining on the balance sheet.

However, if the haircut at BOI is shaping up at 35-40%, then one wonders about the likely haircut for AIB given it has a higher proportion of development loans in its mix. This has the potential to make one nervous about the average 35% haircut we have applied on AIB’s NAMA-bound loans, if the media commentary proves accurate. If the amount of AIB’s NAMA-bound loans holds (€23bn), every 1% move in the haircut adds c€230m to its capital requirements. In addition, higher haircuts may also make the market jittery about our underlying commercial property loan loss assumptions (22.7% for AIB and 16.3% for BOI), which we outlined in our report on Friday (Looking at loan losses (and life!) beyond NAMA), though we are hopeful we have captured the extent of the cycle in our estimates.

The second piece of the puzzle for the banks are the targeted capital levels and again the weekend newsflow is sobering enough, but highlights a risk we identified in our research piece on Friday. Our base case is that the banks will be required to have a 6% core equity ratio at the bottom of the cycle and move to 8% by 2014 through organic earnings generation. However, media commentary indicates that the Regulator is pushing for a 7% trough level and that there is a “healthy tension” existing between the Regulator and the Department of Finance on the issue. Every additional 1% figure would add close to €0.9-1.0bn to our €4.2bn (gross, pre disposals) requirement at AIB and €0.8-0.9bn to our €2.8bn total requirement at BOI. As we said on Friday, until clarity emerges, the market is likely to sit on the sidelines, but it is getting closer to make up your mind time for all of us."

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