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News : International Last Updated: Mar 12, 2010 - 11:23:17 AM


Markets News Friday: Dukes to become Anglo chairman; HSBC confirms theft of Swiss CD with names of 24,000 French clients
By Finfacts Team
Mar 12, 2010 - 11:05:15 AM

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President Barack Obama and President Rene Preval of Haiti return to the Oval Office, following their remarks in the Rose Garden of the White House, March 10, 2010.

The Minister for Finance, Brian Lenihan has thanked Donal O’Connor for his work as chairman and executive chairman of Anglo Irish Bank at "a time of great challenge for the bank and the financial system generally": “Mr. O’Connor has worked tirelessly to help stabilise the bank and introduce a new management team to lead it in the future. He also instigated the restructuring plan that was submitted to the EU Commission last year.

I greatly appreciate his dedication to his work at the bank and his steadfast support of the Government’s efforts to stabilise the banking system. I know how onerous and demanding his role was over the last year and I am greatly indebted to him for his important contribution. I will be appointing Alan Dukes as Chairman to replace Donal. As a member of the Board, Alan has been intimately involved in the bank since it was nationalised. His appointment will ensure continuity as the bank charts its future. I know Alan will bring his keen intelligence and application to the task. I will be making further appointments to the board in the near future.”

Lehman Brothers used off-balance-sheet transactions to reduce its leverage in late 2007 and 2008, deceiving shareholders about its ability to withstand losses, a bankruptcy examiner’s report published on Thursday said.

Lehman "repeatedly exceeded its own internal risk limits and controls" and a wide range of bad calls by its management led to the bank's failure, the report says. The conduct of Lehman executives "ranged from serious but non-culpable errors of business judgment to actionable balance sheet manipulation," the report by examiner Anton Valukas says. Valukas was appointed in January of last year to examine the causes of Lehman's failure by the US Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York.

Examiner reports

HSBC's Swiss wealth management operation, which is based in Geneva, has confirmed the theft of a CD containing information on 24,000 clients, mainly from France.

When the French authorities acquired the CD in December, HSBC originally had said the data concerned only a very small number of people.

Economic View; Results season – In search of the inflection point: Goodbody chief economist, Dermot O'Leary comments: "Corporates representing 75% of the market capitalisation of the ISEQ have reported over the past six weeks. The results reflect somewhat of a turning point in terms of expectations for Irish quoted companies. Out of 17 companies, there have been nine upgrades to FY10 forecasts (with four unchanged). This represents a significant turnaround from the extended period of forecast downgrades for Irish companies over the past two years. In the Spring 2009 results season, there were only two upgrades, while there were eleven downgrades. Could this be the start of the earnings upgrade cycle for Irish corporates?

The results suggest that Irish companies have proven themselves adept in the area of cost savings, with seven companies reporting costs that beat expectations pertaining in October 2009, with nine coming in in-line. Top-line trends have not been as impressive, with operating revenues outperforming expectations in only three instances, while undershooting in seven. We are still in search of that key inflection point. Significant uncertainty remains around the outlook for the Irish financials, as reflected in the continued downward movement in EPS forecasts over the past six months. However, EPS forecasts for the industrial stocks have risen over this time period, with material upward forecast revisions for CRH and Grafton, for example. Do the results tell us anything about Ireland Inc.? In line with our forecasts for the Irish economy, Irish revenue growth trends, although still deeply in negative territory due to the depth of the domestic recession, have eased in the past six months.

Of the 13 companies that we have reliable data on Irish revenue trends, all reported better year-on-year trends in H2 2009, with revenue growth going from -33% in H1 to -16% in H2. This is consistent with the fact that the contraction in the Irish economy reached its most intense period at the start of 2009. As a result, these companies will have easier year-on-year comps to deal with in Ireland in H1 2010, meaning that further positive momentum is likely to be seen. The domestic environment is still very challenging, particularly for the banking and construction sectors, but commentary from the corporates in the latest results season indicate that the precipitous falls that were witnessed in 2009 have started to ease. Important issues such as the recapitalisation of the banking system over the next few months will have a large bearing on the trajectory of any economic upturn."

China is likely to depeg the yuan from the dollar in the second quarter, believes Dariusz Kowalczyk, chief investment strategist at SJS Markets. He makes his case to CNBC's Karen Tso & Martin Soong:

Economic View; Irish rental market approaching stabilisation? Goodbody economist, Deirdre Ryan, comments: "With the downturn in the Irish housing market into its fourth year at this stage, some signs of stabilisation might be expected. The rental sector appears to be showing the first signs of this according to the latest trends in rents. Rental data from the CSO show rents declined by a modest 1% in the three months to February, the slowest rate of decline seen in seven quarters (since Q2 08). On an annual basis, rents were down 14% yoy, and have now fallen 25% from peak levels.

Given that, the rate of rental decline continues to ease and indeed the movement in the latest data is so modest, it does appear that there is little to go in terms of further rental falls. This is also apparent in light of the recent report from Daft.ie which pointed to a slight increase in rents in January (+1.5% mom after a 26% peak to trough fall). While we remain sceptical on the prospects for rental increases in the near term, its does, nonetheless, appear that a stabilisation point has now been reached in terms of rental levels and that our 30% peak to trough decline looks overly pessimistic at this stage.

So what does this mean for rental yields? Following yesterday’s data, we estimate the rental yield stands at 4.3% up from 4% in Q409. On the basis of a 30% peak to trough rental decline the rental yield would have adjusted to 4.7% Q4 11. However, assuming rents remain at their current level, this would see a 4.7% rental yield reached by Q4 10, while it would rise further to 4.9% by the end of 2011, holding our other assumptions constant (ie a 42% decline in house prices from peak levels as reported by the permanent tsb index, which is currently down 31% from its peak). However, it is likely that the rental yield will adjust further beyond this level, which, assuming no further change in rents, implies further falls in terms of house prices.

Were the rental yield to adjust to 5.5% (its level at the turn of the decade), this would necessitate close to a 50% peak to trough fall in house prices. Anecdotal and estate agent reports have indicated house price declines close to this magnitude have occurred, but principally in the Dublin region. Rents may be showing initial signs of stabilisation, however, our rental yield metrics indicate there is further to go in terms of house price reductions."

CNBC's John Harwood highlights Sen. Chris Dodd's plans to unveil his financial regulation reform bill:

US household net worth rises again, but at a slower pace: Davy chief economist, Rossa White, comments -- "US household net worth rose for a third straight quarter in Q4 2009, albeit at a slower pace than in Q2 or Q3. Net worth increased by $683bn compared with Q3, driven mainly by further gains in financial assets. Debts were not repaid at a rapid pace. House prices seem to be stabilising, and net equity in real estate rose as a result. A combination of further de-leveraging, gains in financial assets and eventually house price inflation will boost net worth in the year ahead. In turn, consumer spending will benefit.

Household financial assets rose, but the surge was nothing like Q3. In Q4, financial assets augmented by $677bn. That compares with a near $2.5trn rise in Q3. Markets did not reflate to quite the same extent last quarter. Yet all assets are now rising in value. Household owners' equity in real estate increased by $91bn. That fell short of the $420bn jump in Q3, but the gain was welcome. It is interesting to note that households now have 38% equity in their homes on average (as a percentage of the current price). That equates to a 4.5 percentage point lift from the trough, but is some distance from the 60% buffer back in 2005. Funnily enough, US household net worth is now back to Q1 2005 levels.

One of the key differences between the US and Ireland is that household net worth is recovering over there, but not here. That is important because it is a key influence on savings behaviour. The US household savings ratio stabilised, as net worth began to improve from Q2 of last year. But, in Ireland, the higher concentration of net assets in property means that net worth is probably still in decline (data are not available). The damage done to net worth was one of the three key factors that drove the Irish savings ratio up by 10 percentage points between 2007 and 2009, along with rapidly rising unemployment and perceived loss of control of the public finances. The last two factors are heading in the right direction now, but further erosion of net worth in the next year will mean that when the Irish savings ratio soon peaks, it will remain high thereafter."

President Obama discusses his trade agenda at the Export-Import Bank's Annual Conference in Washington, D.C.

US markets

On Thursday, the Dow rose 44 points or 0.42% to 10,612.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite added 0.42%.

Asia

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3% Friday.

The Nikkei 225 added 0.81%; the Shanghai Composite dipped 1.24%; Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.08% and India's Sensex Index slipped 0.01%.

Asia benchmarks

Finfacts Reports

Innovation Ireland Taskforce's aspirational report; US banks / credit-card companies contribute most money for start-ups - - not venture capital companies
New head of financial regulation in Ireland outlines plans for more effective supervision
Without reform, annual per employee health care costs for American companies will triple to nearly $29,000 by 2019
World trade heading for double-digit growth in 2010
Taoiseach launches Innovation Ireland Taskforce report; Says important marketing message for Ministers to carry abroad for St. Patrick's Day
US trade deficit narrowed in January; 2009 trade gap was $378.6 billion

In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has risen 0.59% Friday.

The ISEQ has climbed 1.04% in Dublin.

boI has gained 6.6% and INM has added 7.95%.

European Benchmarks

Irish Share Prices

Irish Stock Market Capitalisation by Company

Key Index Performance Statistics

Euribor Rates

AIB Daily Report

Bank of Ireland Daily Report

Currencies

The euro is trading at $1.3782 and at £0.9088.

For live currency updates, check the right-hand column of the Finfacts home page.

The US dollar fell to $1.6038 per euro on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 - an-all time record.

Commodities

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry commodities, hit an all-time High of 11,771 on the 21st of May, 2008. From that time it reversed and on the 5th of December, 2008 it hit a low of 663 - -  close to a 1986 low.

The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009.

The Baltic Dry Index, rose 3.9% last Friday according to the Baltic Exchange. The index jumped 18% last week - - the biggest advance since the five days to Nov. 13, 2009.

On Monday, the BDI rose 17 points or 0.52% to 3,259; on Tuesday, the index dipped 49 points or 1.5% to 3,210; on Wednesday, the BDI rose 20 points or 0.62% to 3,230; on Thursday, the index advanced 86 points or 2.7% to 3,316.

In the Financial Times on Wednesday, Feb 17th, Javier Blas wrote that the weakness in the Baltic Dry Index, long seen as an indicator of global economic activity, does not reflect a downturn in global trade. Instead, the measure of freight costs is showing a strong supply of new vessels that helps explain the 40% drop in three months. “New supply is astonishingly high and it is overwhelming the otherwise robust demand for bulk commodities from China,” he wrote. “On the other hand, bullish investors should be cautious of any near-term turnround. Rather than a sign of stronger economic activity and commodities demand, it is likely to reflect cancelled orders, scrappage and port congestion.”

Crude oil for April 2010 delivery is currently trading on the Chicago York Mercantile Exchange (CME/Nymex) at $82.66 per barrel up 65  cents from Thursday's close. In London, Brent for March delivery is trading on the International Commodities Exchange at $80.82.

Gold spot price

Gold is trading at $1120.10 up $9.50 from Thursday's spot price close in New York.

Finfacts Gold Page

Irish Financials; New Financial Regulator sets out his stall – tough talk, awaiting tough love!: Goodbody analyst, Eamonn Hughes, comments - - "The new Financial Regulator (FR) spoke at a lunch function yesterday, his first such public appearance in his new position. He said he has 3 objectives; i) overhaul the regulatory model; ii) strengthen the banking system; and iii) continue the successful work in consumer protection. It is his comments on the middle objective that occupies us this morning.

His opening comment on the banking system was that “the immediate priority over the coming weeks is to complete our work necessary to recapitalise the banking sector”. This involves stressing the post-NAMA exposures and “setting a prudent capital target requirement that is informed by emerging best practice internationally”. The stress tests comment comes after we mentioned in yesterday’s wrap about a second set of stress tests now in prospect for the UK banks. He went on to add that “the recapitalisation exercise will draw a line under the banking crisis and therefore help to get credit flowing again”. He mentioned that “taking decisive action on the banking recapitalisation will improve our international standing in the financial markets”. So the recap is the “short term priority”, but there were also some “medium term” priorities as well, which will be set internationally given the step change in banking capital and liquidity standards underway by Basel III and the EU. He logically enough indicated that “it will take some time to rebalance the funding profile between retail and wholesale sources and to exit the funding support measures” and that there will need to be appropriate transitional measures.

The commentary on the balance sheet funding should be no surprise to the market (note AIB was in the market yesterday raising €3bn state guaranteed bonds, with a €2bn 5 year deal, 155bps above mid-swaps and a €1bn 2 year deal, 115bps above). However, on capital, we wonder whether he could be hinting at higher capital targets earlier than in our models. The banks have presented 5 year business plans to the EU which must show them disengage from the state within that period. Our base case is an 8% core equity ratio and 110-115% loan to deposit ratio by the end of this period. This would enable the banks to stand on their own two feet, without state support. Given profit accretion from 2012-14, this would roughly imply up-front core equity ratio targets of 6.0-6.5%, driving our €4bn capital requirement at AIB and €2.7bn at BOI.

We note previous commentary that the Central Bank was considering phased capital targets, so our workings look practical. The FR’s comment about the recap drawing a line under the crisis and getting credit flowing again and improving our standing in financial markets raises the risk that the banks could have to get to the targets “informed by emerging best practice internationally” (which is probably the 8% level) sooner rather that later, implying the banks can’t rely on the profit accretion from 2012-14. For instance, with an estimated €99bn and €87bn of risk weighted assets at AIB and BOI respectively at the trough of the cycle, every 1% rise in the capital ratio quicker than our base case would be material for the banks, and dilutive for shareholders. It’s still in the balance and we believe our targets are appropriate, but we’ll have to see if the tough talk from the FR is followed by some tough love for the banks when he comes out with his targets in the coming weeks."


© Copyright 2009 by Finfacts.com

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