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Markets News Afternoon: Deutsche Bundesbank's Axel Weber says in Dublin more bank capital preferable to Volcker Rule; German exports dip in January; AIB/Amárach Recovery Indicator (ARI) shows consumers putting debt management first
By Finfacts Team
Mar 10, 2010 - 4:42:21 PM
Prof Axel Weber, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank.
Financial Services Ireland (FSI), the IBEC group that represents the financial services industry, today said it supported current government economic strategy and urged greater focus on Ireland’s international financial sector. The comments were made at the group's annual lunch, which also included an address about the role of capital requirements in financial regulation from Prof Axel Weber, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank.
Prof. Weber who has been tipped to succeed Jean-Claude Trichet as president of the European Central Bank in 2011 said: "The most comprehensive proposal to reduce the likelihood of individual bank failures is the reform of capital requirements within the Basel II framework. This is based on the assumption that, for the individual institution, capital requirements constitute the central buffer against losses. However, the crisis revealed that the overall level of capital that banks were required to hold was insufficient compared with the magnitude of the losses. At the same time, it became apparent that the loss-absorbing capacity of the capital held was too low."
Weber said alternative proposals such as a European Stabilisation Fund and the Volcker Rule, which was was proposed by President Obama in mid-January had several drawbacks. The Volcker Rule is aimed at barring banks completely from certain forms of risk-taking: they would not be allowed to invest in or sponsor hedge funds or private equity funds. One shortcoming of the Volcker Rule, however, is that it most likely would not apply to investment vehicles, such as hedge funds or investment banks. And a failure of these could also lead to systemic distortions. However, Weber said the most fundamental problem of the Volcker Rule lies in the fact that a complete prohibition of certain activities - - activities that are perhaps more risky but not necessarily economically inefficient - - is a very far-reaching market intervention. The reformed Basel II framework and the Stabilisation Fund also try to restrict possibly destabilising activities but, unlike the Volcker rule, the penalty they impose on these activities is finite.
The Bundesbank president said the Volcker Rule could have undesirable effects on the transmission of monetary policy.
Speaking at the event, Fergus Murphy chairman of FSI and chief executive of EBS said: “Recent economic indicators suggest that the Government has succeeded in stabilising the Irish economy. The key question now facing Ireland is whether we use this stabilisation as a platform for renewed growth or allow our country to stagnate for years.
"The number employed in the IFSC has grown from around 5,000 in 1998 to more than 30,000 today. Ireland can achieve similar growth over the next ten years if we have the right government supports and focus our efforts on sectors of the economy in which we have a track record of success.
"The potential dividend for the economy could be enormous. Early indications of an FSI-commissioned report are that more than 20% of all Irish corporation tax stems from the IFSC, as does 7.5% of GDP. The total contribution to the exchequer in terms of corporate and payroll taxes is in excess of €2bn.
“The recent Budget and the appointment of a world-class regulator are important steps, but we need a renewed focus on competitiveness and a determined effort to market Ireland abroad in order to grow the industry.”
The poor UK manufacturing data is mostly due to bad weather, Peter Westaway from Nomura said Wednesday. He said he sees the UK economy in a fragile recovery. Andy Hartwill from Quasar added that the UK Prime Minister Brown's comment of there being a bumpy road ahead for the economy as an understatement:
Consumer Survey: The AIB/Amárach Recovery Indicator (ARI) for February reports that consumers putting debt management first - - the ones who can afford to - - and there is some evidence of optimism.
The then former US president, Harry Truman, famously commented in 1958: "It's a recession when your neighbour loses his job; it's a depressionwhen you lose your own."
The ARI experienced a significant lift in January but has fallen back slightly in February. Nevertheless, the Indicator is reported to remains significantly above the trend seen through 2009. In the February survey, one third of Irish adults agreed that “the economic situation is bad but has stabilised”, whilst a further quarter agreed that “the economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of recovery”.
The AIB/Amárach Recovery Indicator (ARI) is a monthly measure of consumer views on the economy now and in the future. It is designed to help businesses and planners anticipate the timing of economic recovery, especially in relation to consumer spending. Since Amárach began tracking Irish attitudes to economic recovery, there has been a gradual return to optimism. Nevertheless, this has not yet translated into significant changes to overall consumer behaviour, though some segments of the population are ahead of others in responding more positively to wider economic trends.
Every month Amárach surveys a nationally representative sample from a combined online and face to face approach. This dual approach is used to achieve a representative reflection of the older population. A total sample of 1,000 Irish adults aged 16+ years is achieved. Consumers are asked to choose from a number of different descriptions of the current state of the economy, and their answers are used to construct the Recovery Indicator.
Six out of ten Irish adults say paying off debts is their main financial priority (62%)
One in four are saving more because of the recession (26%).
Men are more comfortable than women borrowing money from a bank if necessary (34% versus 24%)
Other Findings:
Over one in two adults (55%) are optimistic in spite of the current economic situation
Four in ten adults (41%) feel Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time
Young people are more optimistic about the prospects for recovery than older adults, as are those within the Dublin region.
Older adults are experiencing less job security than younger adults, and are less likely to believe Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time.
The Nasdaq celebrates ten years today, with Mark Stahlman, Signal Lake Ventures partner and Richard Bernstein, Richard Bernstein Capital Management:
US markets
US wholesalers' inventories unexpectedly dropped 0.2% in January, the Commerce Department said today, as rising demand outstripped stocks.
Analysts had expected inventories to rise by 0.2% in January. The unexpected dip followed a downward revision in December's inventory level showing December inventories contracted by 1.0%, rather than the 0.8% drop originally reported.
In New York, the Dow has risen 30 points or 0.28% to 10,594.
The S&P 500 has gained 0.68% and the Nasdaq has climbed 0.84%.
The US Labor Department reported today that the unemployment rate fell in nine US states in January and climbed in 30, signaling that the improvement of the labour market is not broad-based.
The jobless rate in Michigan showed the biggest decline, falling to 14.3%, still the highest in the country, from 14.5% in December. New York and New Jersey were among eight states where unemployment decreased by a tenth of a point.
German exports increased by 0.2% and imports decreased by 1.4% in January 2010 against January 2009. Compared to the previous month, seasonally adjusted exports and imports showed opposite trends. Exports fell by 6.3% in January 2010 on December 2009, imports rose by 6.0%. Analysts attributed the slump to disruptions caused by wintry weather.
In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has risen 0.61% Wednesday.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, oil for April 2010 delivery is trading at $82.73 up $1.24 from Tuesday's close. In London, Brent crude for April delivery is trading at $81.24 a barrel.
Currencies
The euro is trading at $1.3666 and at £0.9132.
For live currency updates, check the right-hand column of the Finfacts home page.The dollar traded at a record low $1.6038 per euro on July 15, 2008.
Insight on the prices and availability of Samsung's new 3-D televisions, with Tim Baxter, Samsung Consumer Electronics Division president: