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News : Irish Last Updated: Mar 10, 2010 - 5:01:25 PM


Markets News Wednesday: Aer Lingus cuts 250 cabin crew jobs and pay 2 weeks redundancy per year of service; Tullow Oil reports a 93% drop in 2009 pre-tax profits
By Finfacts Team
Mar 10, 2010 - 11:53:24 AM

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Aer Lingus today announced that it has now disclosed to cabin crew representatives measures to achieve the cost savings originally contemplated under the cost reduction programme announced in October 2009.

The cabin crew representatives were informed of the following measures: targeted compulsory redundancies at statutory minimum levels of 2 weeks per year of service compared with the common practice of big firms to pay six weeks compensation;  the de-layering of the cabin crew organisation; new working conditions to achieve increased productivity; transition to new pay scale including reduced salaries; reduction in variable pay and implementation of new Aer Lingus principles of employment

The airline said assuming the full implementation of all of the measures, it is expected there will be approximately 230 less cabin crew in the organisation and all remaining 750 employees will be on new contracts of employment.

US small business confidence fragile, but likely to improve with easing in bank lending: Davy chief economist, Rossa White, comments: "This week is particularly light for key economic data. A major US government bond auction will probably be the salient event today. But it is worth commenting on a second-line indicator released yesterday: the confidence index for US small business. The NFIB index shows little recovery in confidence (the index is at 88, down from 88.9 last May) since the initial bounce from the floor last spring (from 81 to 88.9). Yet confidence may steadily improve, as the US retail banking sector unfreezes further during 2010.

It has been notable how the ISM — a proxy for the business conditions of medium and large businesses — has diverged from the NFIB index during recovery. Small business optimism has lagged, probably for two main reasons. First, many small businesses related to construction sprang up during the credit bubble. As a chunk of construction capacity evaporated, so too did the medium-term prospects for these related businesses. Second, smaller businesses are more reliant on banks for financing than larger firms which can also tap capital markets. The recent Fed senior loan officer survey showed the first net easing in bank lending standards for almost three years for medium/large firms, but small firms still experienced a slight net tightening in standards.

Importantly though, lending standards for small business are heading in the right direction. The net percentage balance of banks tightening was in single figures as of the last Fed survey, similar to the same juncture in late 2003 or late 1991 when the economy was recovering. Interestingly, the sales outlook of small firms has turned positive in the last two months. In contrast, their expectations for the economy remain low. Recent better results from the regional banking sector suggest that perception may change as bank managers begin to help rather than hinder in the months ahead."

Economic View; Pressure from industrial action must be resisted: Goodbody chief economist, Dermot O’Leary, comments:  "With a plethora of countries in a similar position of late, we are learning some of the unfortunate consequences of a fiscal crisis for the countries involved. When significant sums are needed from international lenders to fund large budget deficits, a key lesson is that power, not literally, but effectively, is removed from national parliaments into the hands of these lenders. The consequences of a government not accepting such a reality is that bond markets would become closed to debt being issued by that country.

This has been the fate of Greece over the past few weeks, where the bond markets and then the EU forced its government into further clear austerity measures to reduce its budget deficit. Bond markets had a similar effect on forcing the Irish government into painful, but necessary, reforms in 2009 too. For this, the Irish government has received a lot of credit, be it from organisations such as the ECB or the European Commission, or indeed as reflected in the reduced risk premium paid on Irish Government debt over the past twelve months. This has been in stark contrast to the types of pictures that have been flashed across the world from the protests seen in Athens over the past few weeks.

It is unfortunate then that what seemed like a modest level of protests from some Irish public sector workers looks to be developing into something bigger, with announcements of strike action yesterday by some health service workers and actions being taken by other departments. The motivation is to reverse some of the pay cuts that were introduced in the Budget last December. Everyone has a right to express their grievances but these actions will prove to be pointless and are counterproductive. With public sector pay having accounted for one-third of expenditure, the government had little choice but to target this area to achieve required savings and did not have the luxury of invoking these changes over a number of years as was suggested by the public sector unions. The government has clearly stated that changes made will not be reversed. In truth, it has stuck to its word on these issues over the past twelve months and must do the same in the face of these actions. It doesn’t have many other options."

It has been ten years since the Dot Com bubble burst. The focus has shifted to investors buying into stocks with something more tangible, Duncan Bell from T3 said Wednesday. Julie Meyer from Ariadne Capital discusses the technological progressions we've seen since then. She likes Palm and Dialogue Semiconductor:

US markets

On Tuesday, the Dow added 12 points or 0.11% to 10,564.

The S&P 500 rose 0.17% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.36%.

The worst is over in terms of euro weakness, says Thomas Harr, senior FX strategist at Standard Chartered. He discusses his views with CNBC's Anna Edwards and Chloe Cho:

Asia

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2% Wednesday.

The Nikkei 225 dropped 0.04%; the Shanghai Composite dipped 0.66%; Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was flat and India's Sensex Index climbed 0.27%.

Japan’s machinery orders fell 3.7% in January after the biggest rise in December,  since 2000, signalling a reluctance to increase capital spending.

China's exports jumped by 46% in February compared with a year ago, confirming the robust recovery in the Asia region. China's imports also rose strongly, climbing by 45% last month.

Asia benchmarks

Finfacts Reports

Glanbia reports 19% fall in 2009 pre-tax profits; Majority shareholder is interested in acquiring Glanbia's Irish dairy operations
China's exports jumped by 46% in February compared with a year ago; Imports climbed 44.7%
Innovation Ireland Taskforce: Yet another 120,000 jobs plucked from the air by insiders?; In UK 2,900 high-tech companies in business since 1991 have only 40,000 jobs
IDA Ireland Horizon 2020 Strategy: Lack of coherence on changes facing existing Irish-based multinationals/ challenges of adapting model for China and India - - Prof. Seamus Grimes
The Next Big Thing: America's top 50 venture capital backed young companies with potential
Dr. Peter Morici: US trade deficit threatens a second recession
Markets News Afternoon: One year after bear market 12 year lows in US and Europe when Warren Buffett said the US economy had "fallen off a cliff"
Slow job creation continues to drag on the US economy
German manufacturing sector turnover and industrial output grew in January despite the severe weather
anair condemns Irish Government for losing "500 well paid engineering jobs for Ireland"; Genuine or another publicity stunt?

In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has fallen 0.05% Wednesday.

The ISEQ has risen 0.11% in Dublin.

Aer Lingus is up 2.50%.

Elan is up 2.34% and CRH has dipped 1.45%.

European Benchmarks

Irish Share Prices

Irish Stock Market Capitalisation by Company

Key Index Performance Statistics

Euribor Rates

AIB Daily Report

Bank of Ireland Daily Report

Currencies

The euro is trading at $1.3586 and at £0.9114.

For live currency updates, check the right-hand column of the Finfacts home page.

The US dollar fell to $1.6038 per euro on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 - an-all time record.

Commodities

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry commodities, hit an all-time High of 11,771 on the 21st of May, 2008. From that time it reversed and on the 5th of December, 2008 it hit a low of 663 - -  close to a 1986 low.

The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009.

The Baltic Dry Index, rose 3.9% last Friday according to the Baltic Exchange. The index jumped 18% last week - - the biggest advance since the five days to Nov. 13, 2009.

On Monday, the BDI rose 17 points or 0.52% to 3,259; on Tuesday, the index dipped 49 points or 1.5% to 3,210.

The index rose 27 points or 1.0% on Friday to 2,738. In the Financial Times on Wednesday, Feb 17th, Javier Blas wrote that the weakness in the Baltic Dry Index, long seen as an indicator of global economic activity, does not reflect a downturn in global trade. Instead, the measure of freight costs is showing a strong supply of new vessels that helps explain the 40% drop in three months. “New supply is astonishingly high and it is overwhelming the otherwise robust demand for bulk commodities from China,” he wrote. “On the other hand, bullish investors should be cautious of any near-term turnround. Rather than a sign of stronger economic activity and commodities demand, it is likely to reflect cancelled orders, scrappage and port congestion.”

Crude oil for April 2010 delivery is currently trading on the Chicago York Mercantile Exchange (CME/Nymex) at $81.37 per barrel down 12 cents from Tuesday's close. In London, Brent for March delivery is trading on the International Commodities Exchange at $79.89.

Gold spot price

Gold is trading at $1124.70 up $2.50 from Tuesday's spot price close in New York.

Finfacts Gold Page

Goodbody analyst, Gerry Hennigan, comments: Tullow Oil ; FY09 Results – No surprises - - "As expected, much of the interest in the Tullow FY09 results statement this morning rests on incremental newsflow, rather than the results. In that regard, however, there was little in the way of additional news. Expectations of Ugandan government approval of the pre-emption process, and the subsequent farm-out of Tullow’s interest, are anticipated in the coming weeks with both Total and CNOOC in the frame. The suggestion also is that in each partner will have an equal share, with the Ugandans thus succeeding in their objective.

Further confirmation is given of first oil from Jubilee by Q4. The total resource base at the end of 2009 was 831.0 mmboe marginally up on the 825.4 mmboe recorded at the end of 2008. As reported over the past week, discussions are taking place with regard to the Kudu gas field offshore Namibia, which may result in Tullow reducing its stake from 70% to c.30%. On the exploration front, no new results are provided with the Likonde-1 well in Tanzania and the Shekhan-1 well in Pakistan still drilling. Variations between the actual results and our forecasts, which were broadly in line with consensus, largely reflect a lower tax charge. Reported PBT of £20.3m compared to our estimate of £16.9m.

The lower tax charge, however, contrived to produce adjusted EPS of 6.8p against a forecast of 5.5p. On the balance sheet, net debt of £718.3m was, as guided in the January 27th trading statement (debt/equity of 47%, albeit pre the rights issue in January), while a final dividend of 4.0p was declared, which is directly in line with that declared in H2 and for the full year last year.With results broadly in line with our projections and guidance already provided in terms of full year production (55 - 57 kbopd) and capex (£990m), adjustments to our 2010 forecasts are likely to be limited. That said, with discussion in the post results conference call (9.00am GMT) likely to concentrate on: (i) the commencement of production in Ghana; (ii) the farm-out process in Uganda; and (iii) the inventory of drilling prospects targeted over the rest of the year, the market will be sifting through management commentary and the prospective inventory for potential catalysts for the share price."

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