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News : International Last Updated: Mar 9, 2010 - 1:43:35 PM


Markets News Tuesday: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services is maintaining its negative outlook for the US banking industry
By Finfacts Team
Mar 9, 2010 - 9:13:54 AM

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President Barack Obama is seen through the eyepiece of a video camera as he delivers remarks on health care reform at Arcadia University in Glenside, Pennsylvania., March 8, 2010.

US banks: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services is maintaining its negative outlook for the U.S. banking industry based on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s (FDIC) recently released industry financial performance data as of fourth-quarter 2009, said a report released Monday for subscribers,  titled, "The Outlook For The US Banking Industry Remains Negative After The FDIC Releases Fourth-Quarter 2009 Performance Data."

Ratings downgrades began to outpace upgrades in the second half of 2007 in anticipation of the industry downturn, and the depth and length of the recession ended up exceeding S&P's initial expectations. "The stress on ratings has not entirely subsided yet, as we expect credit losses in banks' loan books should continue to rise, albeit more slowly," said Standard & Poor's credit  analyst Rodrigo Quintanilla. "We have renewed concerns that potential legislative and regulatory changes could put additional stress on ratings for US banks that currently benefit from government support. For the most part, our ratings already reflect our loss expectations. We have yet to examine our rated bank universe using year-end 2009 balance sheets."

The FDIC, the Great Depression era agency which guarantees bank deposits, said last month that US bank lending fell 7.5% in 2009, the largest annual decline since 1942. More than one in four institutions (29.5%) reported negative net income for the year, up from 24.8% in 2008. This is the highest proportion of unprofitable institutions in any year since at least 1984.

Economic View; Known unknowns in the UK economic recovery:Goodbody chief economist, Dermot O’Leary, commented today - - "Recent indicators suggest that the recovery in the UK housing market has hit a few speed-bumps. The latest piece of evidence comes this morning in the form of the latest survey from RICS. Its price expectations balance fell to +17 in February, down from +31 in January, and is now at a six month low. The scale of the rebound in prices in the UK over recent months did catch most commentators, including ourselves, unawares but was due to a low number of properties available for sale on the market. As prices have recovered, more potential sellers are joining in to try to take advantage, but this is having a dampening effect on price gains. This is also in the context of weakening mortgage approvals in December and January and also comes after both Halifax and Nationwide reported price declines in February for the first time in eight and ten months, respectively. The removal of temporary tax relief on house purchases is a further near term headwind. Low supply is still a structural underpinning for the UK housing market, but the biggest speed-bump on the road to recovery appears to be credit availability.

Meanwhile, the latest BRC sales monitor show UK retail sales values were up 4.5% yoy in February (+1.2% in January), while on a like for like basis, sales were ahead by a steady 2.2% yoy (-0.7% in January). Both of these numbers though are helped by poor base effects from February 2009. In the three months to February, like for like sales growth was 2.1% so that after a very weak January some ground has been recovered by UK consumers. Unsurprisingly food sales benefited more from the unseasonably cold weather, with food sales ahead 2.4% in the quarter to February (+1.9% for non-food spending). Fears have been expressed about the ability of UK consumers to continue to increase spending in what is still a very fragile recovery. These numbers won’t eradicate those fears but the latest evidence suggests that they have not rolled over just yet. The effect of likely fiscal consolidation in the second half of 2010 though is the big known unknown."

UK housing market weakening: Davy chief economist Rossa White commented -- "Sterling is under pressure, as many investors question the UK's fiscal sustainability. And it will not enjoy any respite after last night's data which show that the UK housing market is weakening fast. The RICS index net balance of respondents dipped fully 14 points to +17. That was the biggest drop for 22 months. More importantly, when the index turns, it does not usually provide a false signal. The recent bounce in UK housing-related stocks may well be reversed.

The RICS index is a net balance of chartered surveyors seeing house price rises minus those seeing house price falls. It moved relentlessly in a positive direction from February 2009 until last December. In that month it slipped only five points from the November high. Consolidation followed in January, before February's dive. The index is now at its lowest point since August 2009. Crucially, it rarely provides misleading signals. The only downtrend that was not sustained occurred due to a shock occurrence: from August to November 2001 the index dipped temporarily following the 9/11 attacks.

There are two questions: what has caused the reversal and how far will it extend? It is likely that some households will delay purchases until after May's general election. Further, sentiment has surely been buffeted by recent commentary about the UK's precarious fiscal position and the political vacuum created by the unwillingness of the government to deal with it this side of the election. Looking further ahead, any post-election bounce may be snuffed out by the prospect of rising interest rates. UK housing is not cheap, so the threat of a second significant correction in three years is real."

Californian highway patrol officers had to help stop a runaway Toyota Prius after its accelerator pedal got stuck. CNBC's Kaori Enjoji has more:

Chinese yuan: Bloomberg reports that the yuan is facing increased pressure to appreciate as a widening interest-rate differential spurs inflows of funds through "underground money shops," China’s top currency regulator said.

The funds are disguised as foreign direct investment and trade accounts, Yi Gang, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said at a briefing in Beijing today. The yuan’s exchange rate will be kept stable at a “reasonable and balanced level,” he reiterated.

China has pegged its currency to the dollar since July 2008 to help exporters weather a global recession. A recovery in overseas sales has intensified bets among traders that policy makers will resume gains to reduce import costs and contain inflation amid a surge in property and stocks prices.

Finfacts report, March 08: China hints at renminbi/yuan appreciation; Says think again - - it may not be China's century

Australian business confidence rose for a second straight month in February, according to a survey by NAB. Its head of currency strategy, John Kyriakopoulos, sheds more light on the findings, with Ed Ponsi of FXEducator.com, speaking with CNBC's Karen Tso, Sri Jegarajah & Martin Soong:

US markets

On Monday, the Dow fell 14 points or 0.13% to 10,552.

The S&P 500 dipped 0.02% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.25%.

Insight on the President's recent push for health care and financial regulatory reform, with CNBC's John Harwood and discussing federal worker pay, with Robert Reich, former Labor Secretary; James Pethokoukis, Reuters Breaking Views and Dan Henninger:

Asia

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed today.

The Nikkei 225 dropped 0.17%; the Shanghai Composite added 0.52%; Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.25%.

China reported that passenger car sales surged 55% in February from a year earlier, boosted by stimulus measures and buying for the Lunar New Year.

Asia benchmarks

Finfacts Reports

Aer Lingus reports revenue fall of 11% in 2009 and operating loss before exceptional items of €81.0m; Board to meet on restructuring plan
Irish Economy: Political spin, jobs and IDA Ireland
Merkel backs EMF fund proposal for Eurozone
Risk of  “lost decade” for the global economy warns ECB economist
Africa seeing signs of recovery after global crisis - - IMF
Markets News Afternoon: Aer Lingus delays 2009 results because of staff ballots; OECD unemployment rate falls to 8.7% in January driven by US and Japan
New Irish car sales in February rose strongly compared with lows of February 2009
OECD, WTO and UNCTAD renew calls to G-20 countries to resist protectionism
Private sector activity in Northern Ireland fell at the fastest rate in ten months in February

In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has risen 0.03% Tuesday.

Eurotunnel today reported that profits plunged in 2009 as the business was hit by a tunnel fire and wintry weather.

The company, which operates the Channel Tunnel between the UK and France, reported profits of just €1.4m for 2009, down from €34m the previous year.

The ISEQ has dipped 0.20% in Dublin.

Aer Lingus is up %5 after issuing a trading statement for 2009 this morning  - - see link to story in Box above.

Elan fell 1.63% and INM gained 1.12%.

INM has announced Monday afternoon that it has disposed of 7.8% of its 13.5% stake in Indian media group Jagran Prakashan (JPL). The proceeds generated amounts to €42m (a 47% return on its investment four years ago), which will be used to pay down the group’s debt.

European Benchmarks

Irish Share Prices

Irish Stock Market Capitalisation by Company

Key Index Performance Statistics

Euribor Rates

AIB Daily Report

Bank of Ireland Daily Report

Currencies

The euro is trading at $1.3620 and at £0.9069.

For live currency updates, check the right-hand column of the Finfacts home page.

The US dollar fell to $1.6038 per euro on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 - an-all time record.

Commodities

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry commodities, hit an all-time High of 11,771 on the 21st of May, 2008. From that time it reversed and on the 5th of December, 2008 it hit a low of 663 - -  close to a 1986 low.

The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009.

The Baltic Dry Index, rose 3.9% last Friday according to the Baltic Exchange. The index jumped 18% last week - - the biggest advance since the five days to Nov. 13, 2009.

On Monday, the BDI rose 17 points or 0.52% to 3,259.

The index rose 27 points or 1.0% on Friday to 2,738. In the Financial Times on Wednesday, Feb 17th, Javier Blas wrote that the weakness in the Baltic Dry Index, long seen as an indicator of global economic activity, does not reflect a downturn in global trade. Instead, the measure of freight costs is showing a strong supply of new vessels that helps explain the 40% drop in three months. “New supply is astonishingly high and it is overwhelming the otherwise robust demand for bulk commodities from China,” he wrote. “On the other hand, bullish investors should be cautious of any near-term turnround. Rather than a sign of stronger economic activity and commodities demand, it is likely to reflect cancelled orders, scrappage and port congestion.”

Crude oil for April 2010 delivery is currently trading on the Chicago York Mercantile Exchange (CME/Nymex) at $81.45 per barrel down 42 cents from Monday's close. In London, Brent for March delivery is trading on the International Commodities Exchange at $80.22.

Gold spot price

Gold is trading at $1123.10 down 60 cents from Monday's spot price close in New York.

Finfacts Gold Page

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