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Markets News Thursday: European Central Bank expected to keep benchmark interest rate at 1%; To outline steps on gradual withdrawal from emergency lending to Eurozone banks
By Finfacts Team
Mar 4, 2010 - 9:39:54 AM
An image of the planned new headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt. The construction is expected to be completed by 2011.
The Governing Council of the the European Central Bank (ECB) will meet today in Frankfurt, and is expected to keep interest rates on hold at a record low level of 1% due to the slow recovery in Europe. However, it is expected that the ECB will announce its next steps in its gradual withdrawal from emergency lending to Eurozone banks.
The ECB will return to competitive bidding to set the interest rate on three-month loans at some point this year, which would raise costs for banks in the 16- member country Eurozone. The central bank is expected to continue providing unlimited financing on a shorter-term basis, given concerns about Greek debt and indications that some institutions are still dependent on central bank support.
Bloomberg reports that the ECB may lend covered bonds back to financial institutions for a fee as part of a strategy that would ease banks’ access to funds. The proposal comes as the ECB tries to withdraw the emergency measures used to fight the financial crisis without spooking investors concerned about Greece’s record budget deficit. While the €39 billion of bonds held by the ECB is equivalent to just 5% of the total currently loaned out to banks, the new plan would give them more collateral to lodge with the ECB in return for funds.
Eurostat, the EU's statistics office, reported on Wednesday that in January 2010, the volume of retail trade decreased in the month by 0.3% in both the Eurozone (EA16) and the EU27. In December 2009 retail trade rose by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively. The agency reported on Tuesday that Eurozone annual inflation is expected to be 0.9% in February 2010 according to a flash estimate. It was 1.0% in January.
The Bank of England, meeting in London, is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% - - the lowest since the bank was founded in 1694.
Greek bonds rally as further fiscal measures equating to 2% of GDP announced: Davy analyst, Stephen Lyons, commented today - - "Greece yesterday announced further fiscal measures amounting to an additional €4.8bn or 2% of GDP. The measures are split between increased taxes and spending cuts and are targeted at achieving the objective of reducing this year's deficit to 8.7% of GDP. The European Commission backed the targets, stating that Greece was now on track to meet its target for deficit reduction this year and could count on EU solidarity.
Markets reacted positively, with the yield spread between Greek and German ten-year bonds falling to 284bps, down from 305bps. Credit default swap rates also fell to 306bps from 320bps. However, sentiment is still fragile with Greece yet to see firm support from other Eurozone countries. The German chancellor yesterday stated that a meeting with the Greek prime minister on Friday would not be about aid commitments."
Economic View; Addressing the pension timebomb part of the fighting the fiscal crisis:Goodbody chief economist, Dermot O’Leary, commented - - "While it doesn’t have the immediate beneficial impact on the public finances, like, say, public sector pay cuts, this pension reforms announced yesterday are an important part of solving this gradual worsening problem (see Financials piece for more details on the specific scheme). The younger age structure of the population in Ireland gives the country a window of opportunity to address the issue of a ticking pension’s timebomb that is common to most developed countries over the next number of years. However, the announcements yesterday steal a march on many other European countries.
In Ireland, it is projected that the cost of public pensions will increase by an average of over 1.2% of GDP every five years for the next forty year period. In the context of Ireland struggling to reduce its structural deficit, this is not an inconsequential increase in pension costs. These structural changes would have had to take place in any case but it is likely that the pressures associated with a fiscal crisis expedited the process. Measures such as those announced will not prove popular for many workers under the age of 50, but they prove once again that Ireland is willing to enforce significant changes to solve the problems that it faces. Given that the reforms will be phased in over a number of years, it is still open to question what impact it will have on economic activity. However, in light of the current environment of self-help being forced upon countries with fiscal difficulties, it is a welcome step from that perspective."
Greece is making the right steps toward cutting its budget deficit and investors should be careful of shorting the euro versus the dollar, Stephen Gallo from Schneider Foreign Exchange told CNBC Wednesday. Maurice Pomery from Strategic Alpha joined the discussion:
HP: US PC, printer and computer services giant Hewlett-Packard today announced it is creating 60 jobs in Dublin as it consolidates its European operations at its facility in Dublin.
The workers, including engineers, will provide technical support to customers. The company is looking to recruit people with the necessary technical experience and language skills.
HP employs over 4,000 across its core business groups in Leixlip, Dublin, Galway and Belfast. Last year, announced plans for a call centre which would eventually employ 500.
HP Ireland's managing director Martin Murphy said today's news underlines the company's commitment to the Irish market. "We are also encouraged by the fact that Ireland is making some positive inroads in terms of wage and salary competitiveness thus resulting in greater ability to vie for these types of positions," he said
The US economy continues to expand, with improvement in 9 of 12 districts, with CNBC's Steve Liesman; Liam Halligan, Prosperity Capital Mgmt.; and Zane Brown, Lord Abbett:
US markets
In New York Wednesday, the Dow dipped 9 points or 0.09% to 10,397.
The S&P gained 0.04% and the Nasdaq was flat at 0% change.
Australia is a lucky country to be positioned so close to Asia, says Tim Harcourt, chief economist at the Australian Trade Commission. He assesses the country's trade links with Asia, with CNBC's Oriel Morrison.
Asia
Asian stocks fell Thursday as China’s Industrial Bank Co. forecast slower growth in new lending.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7% after a four-day 3.3% rise.
The Nikkei 225 fell 1.05%; the Shanghai Composite dipped 2.38%; Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.31%.
In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has dipped 0.31% Thursday.
The ISEQ has gained 0.09% in Dublin.
Grafton is up 6.94% after reporting 2009 results this morning - - see link to story in Box above.
Total Produce today reported pre-tax profits, after exceptional items, of €28.4m for 2009.
Davy analyst, Aiden O' Donnell,commented:Results at higher end of guidance - -“Total Produce reported adjusted EPS of 6.47c for 2009. This is at the top end of the company's guidance and ahead of our estimate of 5.9c. It is a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year. On a constant currency basis, adjusted EPS increased 1.4%. Total revenue of €2.3bn represents a 3.3% decline on the prior year. On a constant currency basis, revenues are up 0.7%. Adjusted EBITA declined 5.7%, primarily due to a decrease in the contribution from the consumer goods and healthfoods distribution division.
The group continues to generate strong operating cash flow and to reduce debt. Net debt now stands at €50.6m, down from €60.2m in 2008.
The company will pay a dividend for the full year of 1.69c, a yield of 4.4%.
The impact of extremely cold weather across most of Europe has impacted on trading thus far in 2010. The group is guiding for adjusted EPS in the range of 5.5-6.5c for 2010. We are forecasting an out-turn of 6.2c for 2010 which we will review following the analyst briefing.”
The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009.
The BDI rose 22 points or 0.8% to 2.760 on Monday; on Tuesday, the index rose 32 points or 1.16% to 2,792; on Wednesday, the BDI jumped 119 points or 4.26% to 2,911.
The index rose 27 points or 1.0% on Friday to 2,738. In the Financial Times on Wednesday, Feb 17th, Javier Blaswrote that the weakness in the Baltic Dry Index, long seen as an indicator of global economic activity, does not reflect a downturn in global trade. Instead, the measure of freight costs is showing a strong supply of new vessels that helps explain the 40% drop in three months. “New supply is astonishingly high and it is overwhelming the otherwise robust demand for bulk commodities from China,” he wrote. “On the other hand, bullish investors should be cautious of any near-term turnround. Rather than a sign of stronger economic activity and commodities demand, it is likely to reflect cancelled orders, scrappage and port congestion.”
Goodbody's Eamonn Hughes commented on Irish Life & Permanent; Post FY09 results assessment - - "Post yesterday’s results, we have cut our bank estimates materially and our life estimates by c9%. We are forecasting an Operating Loss at group level of €110m (from a €55m operating profit previously) and see the company the right side of breakeven in 2011.
Our valuation methodology of 0.5x the recapped bank and 1x the statutory NAV (SNAV) on the life company and the associate drives our €2bn franchise value, from which we deduct the amount of capital required to recap the bank to a 6% core equity ratio. After adjusting our models post the results, higher losses at the bank over our forecast horizon drive up our equity recap requirement from €540m to €750m (company estimates €600m). This equates to 0.9x its market capitalisation, from 0.65x previously, which is unnerving, so to reflect the heightened capital risk we continue to value the core life franchise at adjusted SNAV, notwithstanding that the stabilisation in new life business sales and margins brings back the spectre of reverting back to Embedded Value (EV) as a valuation framework. Our fair value at IL&P of €4.0 per share (from closer to €5 previously) generates reasonable upside from current levels and while risks remain, on balance, we stick with our
Buy case given our more conservative use of SNAV on the life company valuation (SNAV equates to just 0.7x of its EV). Alternatives to the extent of our capital raise could also see IL&P raising less from existing shareholders, driving a smaller imputed stake in the third force through a smaller share of its capital than its RWAs. If our 0.5x NAV valuation on the recapped bank is correct, the current share price implies a valuation of just 0.6-0.65x SNAV on the life company, or 0.42-0.45x EV. Alternatively, if the 1x SNAV on the life company is appropriate then the recapped bank is trading on just 0.1x NAV (effectively zero if EV is the base life valuation). We would be hopeful that our relatively conservative valuations on the life company capture any risks that the group may have to consider selling a stake in the life company to support its capital requirements."