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Nonfarm US private employment fell 20,000 from January to February 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report. The estimated change of employment from December 2009 to January 2010 was revised down, from a decline of 22,000 to a decline of 60,000. The February employment decline was the smallest since employment began falling in February of 2008.
Two large blizzards smothered parts of the east coast during the reference period for the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) establishment survey. The adverse weather had only a very small effect on today’s ADP Report due to the methodology used to construct it. However, the adverse weather is widely expected to depress the BLS estimate of the monthly change in employment for February, but boost it for March. Therefore, it would not be unreasonable to expect the BLS estimate for February (due out this Friday) to be less than today’s ADP Report even though the BLS estimate will include the hiring of temporary Census workers not captured in the ADP Report.
February’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector increased by 17,000, the second consecutive monthly increase. However, this employment growth was not enough to offset continued losses in the goods-producing sector. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 37,000, with employment in the manufacturing sector increasing by 3,000. The employment increase in the manufacturing sector was the first since January of 2008.
Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline by 10,000 while small-size businesses with fewer than 50 workers, declined 18,000. Employment among medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers, increased by 8,000, the first increase in employment since January of 2008.
In January, construction employment dropped 41,000. This was the smallest decline since July of 2008, but only slightly better than the decline of 48,000 during January. Employment in the financial services sector dropped 6,000.
The US Labor department will publish its closely watch jobs report for February, including public employment. The ADP is an inconsistent guide to the government figures.
Discussing the latest ADP employment report, with William Rodgers, former Labor Dept. chief economist, and Joel Prakken, of Macroeconomic Advisers: