Source: CSO

The seasonally adjusted Irish Live Register total fell from 434,700 in January to 432,400 in February, a decrease of 2,300, according to the CSO today. the fall likely reflects a rise in emigration.

The fall in the year to February 2010 there was an unadjusted increase in the Live Register of 84,503 (+24.0%). This compares with an increase of 110,664 (+33.9%) in the year to January 2010.  The average net weekly decrease in the seasonally adjusted series in February 2010 was 575, which compares with a weekly increase of 6,000 in February 2009.

January of 2009 represented the spike in claimant increases in any month, with a record 33,000, or 11.3%, rise - - 26,700 additions in February, 20,000 in March; 15,800 in April; 13,500 in May; 11,400 in June; 10,500 in July; 5,400 in August and 600 in September. The total fell 3,000 in October; rose 900 in November and another 3,300 were added in December, to bring the end 2009 total to 426,700.

Other features include: The monthly decrease in the seasonally adjusted series consisted of a decrease of 2,000 males and 300 females.

The standardised unemployment rate in February was 12.6%. This compares with 12.4% in the third quarter of 2009, the latest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the Quarterly National Household Survey.

In the month, the estimated number of casual and part-time workers on the Live Register was 42,026 males and 37,263 females.

The CSO says the Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment. It includes part-time workers (those who work up to three days a week), seasonal and casual workers entitled to Jobseekers Benefit or Allowance. Unemployment is measured by the Quarterly National Household Survey and the latest seasonally adjusted figure, for July to September 2009, is 270,800 persons unemployed.

Ulster bank economist Lynsey Clemenger commented: "The February Live Register numbers have given us further comfort in our view that the 5,800 rise in numbers signing on in January represented something of a temporary blip associated with a post-Christmas shakeout in employment, rather than renewed weakness in the labour market situation. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the number of unemployment benefit claimants fell by 2,300 in February. While further blips in the months ahead cannot be ruled out, we remain of the view that less negative trends in the number claiming unemployment benefit will be evident going forward.

The Live Register estimate of the unemployment rate showed a modest easing to 12.6% from 12.7% in January. While there is no doubt that an unemployment rate of 12.6% is indicative of a very weak labour market, the February decline was a better outturn than the small rise in the unemployment rate that we had been expecting. However, when the official QNHS labour market numbers for Q1 2010 become available we expect that they will show employment in the economy is still falling, and we expect it will continue to do so in coming quarters. In terms of the sectors affected, recent news-flow signals job losses in the financials sector are inevitable in the months ahead, in addition to further cuts in the beleaguered construction and retail sectors. As employment has further to fall, the unemployment rate will rise further in the months ahead. We remain happy with our view that the unemployment rate will peak at around 13.4% by the middle of the year, albeit that the fall in the unemployment rate in February means that an earlier and lower peak cannot be ruled out."

The Assistant Director of the Small Firms Association, Avine McNally said that “the Live Register figures announced today are worrying. An 24% increase in the last 12 months is a damning indictment of the absence of Government policy in this area. The Government must take immediate action and prioritise the restoration of cost competitiveness to the small business sector.”

McNally said, “Our ability to create new jobs has been severely damaged by losses to competitiveness in recent years. Whilst small Irish businesses have taken a series of actions to regain costs within their own businesses, many costs remain which are outside their control as they are government controlled. “In the absence of reductions in these costs, small businesses will have no option but to further reduce the costs that are within their control, and this will inevitably mean a further loss of jobs.”