Based on preliminary data, world trade volume expanded by an unprecedented 4.8% in December 2009 from the previous month, following an increase of 1,1% in November (unrevised), according to the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. In 2009 as a whole, trade decreased by a record 13.2%.
Import volumes of emerging economies continued to expand at an accelerated pace, growth reaching 7.8% in December. Import growth was particularly high in emerging economies in Asia and Latin America. Import growth in advanced economies accelerated as well, from 0.7% in November (first estimate: 0.3%) to 2.7% in December. In December, trade was 8% below the peak level reached in April 2008, but 15% above the trough reached in May 2009. In 2009 as a whole, trade decreased by an unheard-of 13.2%.
Monthly trade figures are volatile and focus on ‘momentum’ is therefore preferable.1 In the fourth quarter of 2009, world trade was up by 6.0% from the third. That is a new high in our series of trade momentum, which starts in 1991.
World trade prices: In the last quarter of 2009, dollar prices of world trade were up by 4.1% from the third. Price momentum turned positive in June, after a series of deep declines that started towards the end of 2008. Dollar prices of traded manufactures decreased by 1.0% in December, their momentum still being 2.6%, down from 3.1% in November, which was the highest figure since July 2008.
World industrial production: On the basis of preliminary data, world industrial production grew by 0.7% in December 2009, following a rise of 1.0% in November (first estimate: 1.2%). Industrial production declined in the Euro Area and Central and Eastern Europe. In the fourth quarter of 2009, world industrial production was up by 2.1% from the third quarter. In December, it was 5% below the peak level reached in March 2008. Since the trough in March 2009 industrial production has risen steadily by an accumulated 8%.
1 Momentum is the change in the three months average up to the current month relative to the average of the preceding three months period.
The trade database is available in Excel format here.
