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Markets News Friday: Stocks, commodities and euro plunge; OECD composite leading indicators give stronger signals of economic expansion
By Finfacts Team
Feb 5, 2010 - 11:17:30 AM
Stocks and commodities fell Friday, the euro dipped to an eight-month low and bond risk jumped for a second day on worries European governments will struggle to fund deficits as the US struggles with unemployment.
OECD composite leading indicators give stronger signals of an expansion in economic activity: OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for December 2009 provide stronger signals of an expansionary economic outlook than November. CLIs for the G7 economies as well as China, India, Russia and Brazil, are now all close to, or above, their long term trends. In all these countries, industrial production - - the underlying reference series for the CLIs - - has now reached its trough.
The CLI for the OECD area increased by 0.9 point in December 2009 and was 10.1 points higher than in December 2008. The CLI for the United States increased by 0.9 point in December, 9.0 points higher than a year ago. The Euro area’s CLI increased by 0.9 point in December, 12.2 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Japan increased by 1.2 point in December, 8.1 points higher than a year ago.
The CLI for the United Kingdom increased by 0.9 point in December 2009 and was 11.5 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Canada increased by 1.1 point in December, 11.3 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for France increased by 0.9 point in December, 12.4 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Germany increased by 1.2 point in December, 14.9 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Italy increased by 0.8 point in December, 14.7 points higher than a year ago.
The CLI for China decreased by 0.1 point in December 2009 but was 9.4 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for India is unchanged in December and 4.9 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Russia increased by 0.3 point in December, 14.2 points higher than a year ago. The CLI for Brazil increased by 0.1 point in December, 13.8 points higher than a year ago.
The OECD CLI is designed to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles - - fluctuations of economic activity around its long term potential level.
The OECD CLIs are composite indicators: with components that target the early stages of production, respond rapidly to changes in economic activity, are sensitive to expectations of future activity or are control variables that measure policy stances.
Source: OECD
The OECD (the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, a think-tank for governments)-Total covers the following 29 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States.
The G7 area covers Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States.
The Euro area (only Euro area countries that are members of OECD) covers the following 13 countries: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovak Republic and Spain.
The debt woes of Greece, Spain and Portugal pressured stock markets across the globe, with Michael Ryan, UBS Wealth Management Research and Komal Sri-Kumar, TCW:
Sovereign debt fears cause tumble in equities:Davy analyst Flor O'Donoghue comments:"The theme that has dominated 2010 thus far has unquestionably been that of fears in relation to sovereign debt, that of the peripheral members of the EU in particular. Initial concerns about Greece have now spread to include Portugal and, most worryingly, Spain. CDS spreads on the debt of 15 Western European countries have now risen above the 100 basis points level for the first time.
Equity investors consequently took fright as European exchanges suffered their worst day in almost three months, while US markets had their worst day in nine months. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 fell 2.8%, while the S&P declined 3.1% (also impacted by weak initial jobless claims numbers for last week). US benchmarks are now 6.5-8% off recent highs.
Reflecting the amplifying risk aversion, the Vix index, a gauge of volatility, rose 17%. Another side effect is the ongoing weakness in the euro, which fell to its lowest level in eight months against the dollar.
Today's big event will be the ever closely watched US non-farm payrolls data. The figures are for January and, according to a Reuters poll, the expectation is for non-farm payrolls growth of 5,000."
The next big bubble could be government bonds, warns James Holt, VP of BlackRock Investment Management. He makes his case to CNBC's Oriel Morrison:
Economic View; Escaping from the PIIGS-ty:Goodbody chief economist, Dermot O’Leary, comments: "The markets keep picking off the countries where sovereign debt risks are perceived to be real one by one. After Ireland last year and Greece over recent months, attention seems to have moved on to Portugal. In fiscal crises, contagion leads to countries being guilty by association, which is why the PIIGS acronym (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) is a somewhat unfortunate association for the countries involved. It is also an association that is difficult to shake off, although Ireland has done a pretty good job over the past twelve months, as it is has shown real political will to tackle the problems in the public finances.
There is no doubt that all of these five countries have issues to deal with at the current time, but there are also a few important features that differentiate them. The similarity is that all of the countries, bar Italy, will experience budget deficits in the range of 8%-11% of GDP in 2010. Starting debt levels differ though with Greece already well over 100% of GDP, while Ireland stands at 65% and Spain at 55%. These two variables are often cited as the main gauges of sovereign risk, but they ignore the wider balance sheet for the economy as a whole – the balance of payments. The balance of payments records transactions with the rest of the world, while within this one can look at the private sector and public sector balances.
This is where the differences really become apparent between the countries mentioned above. Portugal will run a current account deficit of 10% of GDP in 2010, while Ireland may run a small surplus, according to the latest estimates. For Ireland, this means that the large public deficit is being offset by a significant private sector surplus, as households and businesses have slashed spending in the recession. Greece will run a current account deficit of 8% of GDP, while Spain is expected to run a deficit of 5%. In this regard, Portugal and Greece look to be in the most vulnerable position. While spreads on ten-year Irish bonds relative to bunds are still larger than that of Portugal, we would not be surprised if this changes in the very near future, as it has already occurred at shorter maturities. With fiscal consolidation progressing at different speeds in the different countries, a further differentiation is likely at some stage. For now though, fear rules the roost."
US
The Dow fell 268 points or 2.61% to 10,002 on Thursday.
The S&P dipped 3.11% and the Nasdaq dropped 2.99%.
Prof. Peter Morici of the University of Maryland commented on Thursday: "Stocks are tumbling, as investors realize President Obama is simply not offering policies that will fix the US and global economies.
Each week more than 450,000 Americans apply for new unemployment benefits, and 17% of adults can’t find a full time job or have quit looking for work altogether.
Since Massachusetts voters sent Democrats a vote of no confidence, President Obama has been doubling down on bigger government and class warfare as the road to prosperity.
Meanwhile, the two biggest problems that block economic recovery go unaddressed—most businesses lack enough customers and access to bank credit to create jobs.
Just about everyone recognizes consumer spending will not come roaring back. Those few businesses that can increase sales often can’t borrow from banks to expand.
Not surprising, the 5.7% GDP growth recorded in the fourth quarter was mostly an accounting adjustment, reflecting a slower pace of inventory depletion.
Domestic consumption and investment contributed a tepid 1.8% to growth, and that pace is simply not enough to sustain a recovery.
The government is all tapped out. Deficits if pushed any higher could cause an international run on the dollar and a financial calamity even Ben Bernanke’s printing press could not fix. Not surprising the government added zero to fourth quarter growth.
Salvation must come from bringing down the $440 billion trade deficit, and in particular the huge trade imbalance with China. Cutting that deficit in half would boost GDP by 3%, resurrect manufacturing and high wage jobs, and it’s off to races—healthy growth rivaling the Clinton years.
The president’s new export promotion program and small businesses incentives are too little too late.
The president needs to stop talking about Chinese mercantilism and do something about it. Instead, he whines America won’t turn to protectionism
Currency manipulation makes China the most protectionist bully on the planet, robbing growth and jobs from the United States and Europe and increasing the risk that troubled governments like Greece may default.
Meanwhile, after taking $2 trillion in government aid, the banks are dolling out $150 billion in bonuses but are unwilling to loan most businesses the capital they need.
It is high time to separate the commercial banks that enjoy a government guarantee from investment banks like Goldman Sachs. Limit aid to commercial banks for the purposes of making loans, as opposed to trading currency, energy futures and other complex financial instruments.
The president expresses outrage about Chinese trade practices and bank bonuses but refuses to take substantive actions—for example, countering Chinese protectionism with a tax on dollar-yuan conversions to raise the effective price of the yuan, and imposing a 50% tax on bank bonuses as Britain has done.
The markets have figured it out. President Obama is a charismatic campaigner and eloquent speaker, but he simply does not have a grasp of the facts or lacks the courage to fix what is broken in the American economy.
Folly in Washington begets panic on Wall Street."
Marc Pado, US market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald, is not surprised by the Wall Street sell-off during Thursday's trading session. He explains why to CNBC's Oriel Morrison:
Asia
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 2.6% Friday.
The Nikkei 225 dipped 2.89% and the Shanghai Composite dropped 1.87%; India's BSE Sensex 30 declined 2.78% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 2.33%.
In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has dipped 1.90% Friday.
British Airways today reported losses before tax of £50m for the three months to December 31st, its third financial quarter - - lower than expected.
For the first nine months of the year, the airline reported a pre-tax loss of £342m, compared with a £70m loss in the same period a year earlier.
Revenue in the nine months fell 12.9%, but BA said its day-to-day costs dropped by 10.5%, due to lower fuel costs and cost-cutting measures.
British Airways' chief executive Willie Walsh, said: "These results highlight the impact of permanent changes across the company on our costs. Those changes, combined with capacity reductions and external spending cuts, mean operating costs are down by 10.5 percent and show that we've adapted quickly to the new business realities created by the global recession.
"While we are on the right track, we still expect to make record losses this year. Permanent structural change is being introduced in all areas and will return us to sustained profitability.
"We are working with our staff, their unions and the trustees about solutions to address our £3.7 billion pension funds' deficit and are discussing a range of changes to future pension benefits.
"In November, we signed a binding Memorandum of Understanding with Iberia for a proposed merger and are on track to finalise the merger agreement by the end of the year.
"We remain confident of receiving regulatory approval for our proposed transatlantic joint business with American Airline and Iberia."
The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009.
Last week, the BDI closed down 12.5%.
On Monday, the BDI dipped 103 points or 3.6% to 2,745; on Tuesday, the BDI fell 54 points or 2% to 2,691; on Wednesday, the index fell 18 points or 0.07% to 2,673.; on Thursday, the index rose 12 points or 0.45% to 2,685.
US Crude oil stockpiles fell by 3.9 million barrels to 326.7 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 22nd, according to the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.
Inventories of crude oil are "just above the upper limit of the average range for this time of the year," the EIA said.
Goodbody analyst Gerry Hennigan comments: Tullow Oil; Ugandan refinery - - "Amid wide expectations that Tullow will be granted its right of pre-emption over Heritage Oil’s interests in Uganda, the focus would now appear to shift towards the structure of the deal hammered out between Tullow and its future partner (CNOOC and / or Total).
Yesterday the Eurasia Group was cited as the source of comments indicating that the size of the planned refinery may be scaled back to meet the needs of the domestic market only, which uses less than 50k barrels of products per day. If correct, the capital requirements associated with the project may be less than previously envisaged. We would point out however, that Foster Wheeler announced that it had been appointed only this week by the Ugandan Government to carry out a feasibility study on a refinery with a capacity of up to 150k barrels per day and hence comments on the eventual size of the refinery may prove premature. The Foster Wheeler study is due for completion in mid-2010."