Based on preliminary data the world trade volume expanded by 1.1% in November from the previous month, following an increase of 1.4% in October (revised upward from 0,8%), according to the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. World import volumes increased by 2.6% in November whereas world export volumes declined by 0.3%. The CPB says this discrepancy is fully reflected in (partly estimated) diverging price trends. In November, trade was still 12% below the peak level reached in April 2008.

Import volumes of emerging countries continued to expand strongly, by 5% on average. In the advanced economies as a whole, import volumes increased marginally in November, after having declined slightly in October. In Japan the rebound was marked, October having posted a very weak figure.

European imports decreased however. In November, trade was still 12% below the peak level reached in April 2008, as the world economy is recovering from the unprecedented decline that occurred in November 2008 -January 2009. It was however 10% above the trough reached in May 2009. The CPB says as monthly trade figures are volatile, a focus on ‘momentum’ is therefore preferable. It is defined as the change in the three months average up to the current month relative to the average of the preceding three months period

CPB says momentum remains remarkably strong. In the three months up to November, world trade was up by 5.7% from the preceding three months, the highest figure in our series, which start in 1991.

World trade prices

In the three months up to November, dollar prices of world trade were up by 4.0% from the preceding three months. This is the sixth consecutive month of positive price momentum, which contrasts sharply with the deep declines that occurred towards the end of 2008.

Dollar prices of traded manufactures continued to increase in November, momentum being 3.1%, the highest figure since July 2008.

World industrial production

World industrial production continued to advance strongly in November, growing by 1.2% relative to the previous month, following a rise of 0.5% in October. All major regions shared in the increase, growth being particularly high in Japan. In November, world industrial production was still 5% below the peak level reached in March 2008. It was however up by 2% on the year. Since the trough in March 2009 it has risen steadily by an accumulated 8%.

In the three months up to November world industrial production was up by 2.4% from the preceding three months. Industrial production in Japan and the emerging economies in Asia has recovered strongly, following massive declines in the beginning of this year.

An explanatory note on the world trade series is available here.

The trade database is available here in Excel format.