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News : International Last Updated: Jan 22, 2010 - 7:59:39 AM


Markets New Thursday: Obama to announce size and trading restrictions on big US banks
By Finfacts Team
Jan 21, 2010 - 8:39:16 AM

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June 16, 1933: Washington, DC- President Franklin D. Roosevelt affixes his signature to the Glass-Steagall Bank Reform Act--deposit insurance measure, one of the last bits of legislation put through before Congress adjourned, at the end of the famous first 100 days of the Administration. Behind the President (l-r) are: Sen. Allen Barkley; Sen. Thomas Gore; Sen. Carter Glass; Comptroller of Currency J.F.T. Connors; Sen. William G. McAdoo; Rep. Henry S. Steagall; Senator Duncan U. Fletcher; Rep. Alan Goldsborough; and Rep. Robert Luce.

In addition to deposit insurance, this second Glass-Steagall Act, separated investment banking and commercial banking, which is why Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan are two different firms.

Commercial banks were seen as having taken on too much risk in share trading, with depositors' money, up to the October 1929 Crash.

The Glass-Steagall Act was repealed by Congress in November 1999, a measure that has been termed the "Citigroup Authorization Act." Robert Rubin had pushed for repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act as Treasury Secretary. He resigned in July 1999 and was succeeded by Lawrence Summers, now President Obama's head of the National Economic Council. President Clinton called Rubin the "greatest Secretary of the Treasury since Alexander Hamilton" - - President George Washington's Treasury Secretary - - and the former Cabinet officer, who had spent 26 years at Goldman Sachs before joining the Clinton Administration, took a senior position at Citigroup. Rubin who earned $17.0 million at Citi in 2008, was not aware of the detail of $55 billion of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and other subprime-related securities on the group's balance sheet. "The answer is very simple," he told Fortune Magazine. "It didn't go on under my nose."

The New York Times reported in November 2008 that in September 2007, Citigroup’s then chief executive, Chuck Prince, had learned for the first time that the bank owned about $43 billion in mortgage-related assets! On January 2, 2009, Citigroup said that Robert Rubin had resigned as a senior adviser and would not seek re-election as a board director. The Wall Street Journal says Rubin made $115 million in pay since 1999, excluding stock options. Rubin told the Journal his pay was justified and that there were higher-paying opportunities available to him. "I bet there's not a single year where I couldn't have gone somewhere else and made more," he said. Asked if he had any regrets, Rubin said: "I guess that I don't think of it quite that way," adding that "if you look back from now, there's an enormous amount that needs to be learned" - - Michael Hennigan - Finfacts Photo: © Bettmann/CORBIS  

The Wall Street Journal reports that President Barack Obama on Thursday is expected to propose new limits on the size and risk taken by the America's biggest banks.

The Depression-era Glass Steagall Act, which mandated the separation of commercial and investment banking was repealed in 1999. In 1935, J.P. Morgan & Co. employees Henry S. Morgan (grandson of J.P. Morgan) and  Harold Stanley established the investment bank Morgan Stanley to comply with the law.

If Congress approves the Obama proposal, the White House plan could permanently impose government constraints on the size and nature of banking.

The Journal says Obama's proposal is expected to include new scale restrictions on the size of the country's largest financial institutions. The goal would be to deter banks from becoming so large they put the broader economy at risk and to also prevent banks from becoming so large they distort normal competitive forces.

Obama is also expected to endorse, for the first time publicly, measures pushed by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, which would place restrictions on the proprietary trading done by commercial banks, essentially limiting the way banks bet with their own capital. Administration officials say they want to place "firewalls" between different divisions of financial companies to ensure banks don't indirectly subsidise "speculative" trading through other subsidiaries that hold federally insured deposits.

Bloomberg says the rules could limit activities of banks like Goldman, the most profitable investment bank in Wall Street history. Goldman reaped more than 90% of its pretax earnings last year from trading and so-called principal investments, which include market bets on securities and stakes in companies.

Goldman reports its quarterly earnings today. Morgan Stanley reported yesterday, and JPMorgan published its results last week.

Volcker, chairman of the President’s Economic Recovery Board, has criticized as “reform light” the financial industry’s efforts to weaken financial regulation proposals in Congress.

A year ago, Volcker issued a report from the Group of Thirty, a panel of former central bankers, finance ministers and academics, calling for separation between commercial banks and businesses that engage in speculative risk-taking such as hedge funds and proprietary trading.

Global recovery

The global economic recovery that is now underway will slow later this year as the impact of fiscal stimulus wanes, according to a new report from the World Bank. Financial markets remain troubled and private sector demand lags amid high unemployment. The report predicts that the fallout from the crisis will change the landscape for finance and growth over the next 10 years.

Global GDP, which declined by 2.2% in 2009, is expected to grow 2.7% this year and 3.2%percent in 2011 --  se link to story in Box below.

Economic View; Greece’s problems are the euro’s too

Goodbody chief economist, Dermot O’Leary, comments: "If there was any doubt that the continuing problems in Greece was a issue not only for the country in question but also the euro-area as a whole, one should have a look at the recent movement in the euro. Investors are increasingly betting that Greece’s fiscal problems will trigger further concerns in other peripheral euro-area economies with their own problems. The euro has fallen to $1.41, from $1.44 at the start of the year, while relative to sterling, the rate has moved from 89p to just under 87p this morning.

There are factors at play in the US and UK economies that may be causing their respective currencies to appreciate also, including yesterday’s better than expected labour market data and the higher inflation readings the day before. However, it is our view that the recent situation is more of a euro weakness story than a dollar or sterling strengthening one. Another way of gauging whether this is the case is to look at a more comprehensive measure of the movement in the euro – the trade-weighted index. On this basis, the euro has fallen by 2% since the beginning of the year, but 4% over the past three months, taking it back to levels not seen since last April. The bond market is telling us that the mountain that Greece has to climb is a very steep one, with the spread of Greece ten-year bonds over German bunds increasing by another 29bps yesterday, and is now approaching 3%.

Ireland learned last year that the market required real action in its fiscal consolidation plan to regain its trust again. That takes time, so these concerns about Greece, and thus the euro, are unlikely to dissipate overnight. Our currency forecasts imply average rates of $1.50 and 85p for 2010."

The global economic recovery will be below trend for the next couple of years, says Nouriel Roubini, chairman at Roubini Global Economics. He tells Michael Yoshikami, president and chief investment strategist at YCMNET Advisors, CNBC's Martin Soong and Amanda Drury the weakening of the economy is due to the labour market and the credit crunch:

US markets

The Dow on Wednesday slipped 122 points or 1.2% to 10, 603.

The S&P 500 slid 1.06% and the Nasdaq declined 1.26%.

Asia

China’s economy grew 10.7% in the fourth quarter from the same period a year earlier but the robust growth came with higher inflation, raising worries that recent restrictions on lending will be followed with further monetary curbs. China's economy expanded 8.7% in 2009 from a year earlier, indicating that China achieved its full-year growth target of 8 per cent for 2009, according to the official data - -  see link to story in Box below.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index Thursday was little changed.

The Nikkei gained 1.22% and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.22%.

China's fourth-quarter GDP rose 10.7% on year, a shade below forecast but up sharply from the previous quarter's 8.9% increase. Jim Walker, founder & CEO at Asianomics, analyzes the data, with CNBC's Oriel Morrison:

Asia benchmarks

Finfacts Reports

Tullow announces positive results from latest drilling offshore Ghana
China’s economy grew at 10.7% annual rate in fourth quarter of 2009 - - up 8.7% in year; Inflation rises
Recession has been a depression for US blue-collar workers
Global Economic Prospects 2010: World Bank says recovery will slow as impact of fiscal stimulus wanes; Says crisis fallout will impact finance and growth over next 10 years
US housing starts fell more than expected in December because of bad weather; Permits for future construction surged
Average national house prices in Ireland fell by 18.5% in 2009 compared with 9.1% in 2008 - - 31.5% dip since peak in February 2007 and maybe more

In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up 0.49% Thursday.

In Dublin, the ISEQ is up 0.52%.

Aer Lingus is up 2.78%; CRH has gained 2.25% and Tullow has climbed 4.12% after reporting teh latest drilling results from Ghana - - see link to story, in Box above.

European Benchmarks

Irish Share Prices

Irish Stock Market Capitalisation by Company

Key Index Performance Statistics

Euribor Rates

AIB Daily Report

Bank of Ireland Daily Report

Currencies

The euro is trading at $1.4087 and at £0.8682.

For live currency updates, check the right-hand column of the Finfacts home page.

The US dollar fell to $1.6038 per euro on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 - an-all time record.

Commodities

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry commodities, hit an all-time High of 11,771 on the 21st of May, 2008. From that time it reversed and on the 5th of December, 2008 it hit a low of 663 - -  close to a 1986 low.

The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009.

The BDI rose 5.1% last week.

On Monday, it fell 4 points to 3,295; On Tuesday, the index fell 87 points or 2.64% to 3,208; on Wednesday, the index fell 50 points or 1.55% to 5,158.

The Key Indicator of Global Trade  - - Tudor Davies, Motley Fool UK.

Crude oil for February 2010 delivery is currently trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) at $77.91 per barrel up 17 cents from Wednesday's close. In London, Brent for March delivery is trading on the International Commodities Exchange at $76.33.

Gold spot price

Gold is trading at $1129.60 down $9.00 from Tuesday's spot price close in New York.

Finfacts Gold Page

Goodbody economist, Deirdre Ryan, comments: Economic View; House price data beginning to reflect reality - - "Throughout the Irish housing downturn, the lack of data in relation to transacted prices has seen us having to rely on anecdotal evidence to a large extent in gauging the extent of price declines that have taken place. This was mainly due to the fact that the permanent tsb house price index, which had acted as the official house price barometer, had, for several quarters failed to pick up the extent of the declines being reported elsewhere. However, that issue seems to have redressed itself somewhat with the latest releases of the index. In December, house prices dropped 3.6% mom nationally, according to permanent tsb, following a 3.1% decline the previous month. As such, in the final two months of the year the annual rate of decline in prices extended from -14% to -18.5%.

From the peak, prices, nationally, have dropped by 31%, almost in line with the decline in prices being quoted elsewhere. Furthermore, the index is now also reflecting the fact that prices in Dublin have experienced relatively larger falls, with prices having fallen by 35% from the peak, relative to a 29% decline outside of the capital. Overall the index is now back at levels seen in Q1 2003, both nationally and for Dublin, following almost three years of consecutive monthly declines (index peaked in Q107).

This latest data cements evidence from other sources that prices have dropped by over a third nationally and more in the Dublin region. Nevertheless, the index failed to capture the full extent of price rises throughout the boom and it is likely that this will be the case throughout the downturn also, with prices down close to 40% nationally according to some sources. Prices are still likely to fall further, given: (i) the significant oversupply issues that exist; (ii) the lack of mortgage availability; and (iii) the still weak economic environment, with GDP expected to decline by a further 1% in 2010. Overall, we expect the national peak to trough decline in house prices to extend close to 50%, with larger declines in the capital" - - see report link in Box above.

Davy chief economist, Rossa White comments: Irish house prices now down 32% from peak of three years ago - - "In the last two months of 2009, Irish house prices fell at their fastest pace yet since the peak almost three years ago. Prices are now down 32% since February 2007. Yet valuation is not compelling, and house price troughs tend to significantly lag the bottom in the economy (partly because improvement in unemployment is not coincident). Credit will remain harder to obtain. So prices are set to decline throughout 2010.

House prices dropped on average 3.6% in December following the 3.1% decline in November. Up to November, prices had not slipped by more than 2% sequentially since the peak. The lag between approval and drawdown means that what was recorded in November and December really reflected what happened about two months previously. As a result, up-to-date prices would probably show a 35%+ decline from the peak in February 2007.

Where does that leave housing valuation? Gross average annual rental yields for the whole economy are just over 4%, leaving net yields (accounting for voids) still below 4%. Rents are beginning to stabilise: the CPI private rent index fell at the slowest pace since Q3 2008. But they won't bottom for another few months. For a reasonable risk premium to be built back into housing, residential rental yields need to rise towards 6%. Meanwhile, the ratio of prices to average wages has declined to 5.3 (it peaked at 7.9!) – the lowest since Q2 1999. But the improvement in that ratio means less in the current credit-constrained environment."

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