The Irish Auctioneers & Valuers Institute (IAVI) Annual Members’ Survey for 2009 reported a decline in average residential property values of around 20% for 2009. In Dublin, property values were down by an average of 20.1% and in the rest of Leinster values declined by an average of 21.5%. In Munster, property values declined 19.2% on average while in Connaught/Donegal values were down by an average of 19.3%. Average residential property values decline is expected to be 40-50% from peak to trough and the IAVI said the market is close to a floor.

Commenting on the results of the 2009 annual members’ survey, IAVI President  Aine Myler said,“These annual results are in line with our expectations for 2009 and consistent with our belief that the average residential property values would decline 40-50% from peak to trough. The survey results indicate that the market floor is close, if we have not reached it already.

Our members have reported that there are signs that the residential market is beginning to stabilise in certain locations and that most of the adjustment in values has already taken place. A sizeable majority of IAVI members in Dublin experienced a pick-up in activity in the final quarter of 2009, with many recording an increase in residential property enquiries, viewings, offers, sales agreed and sales closed.

''2009 was an extremely difficult year for the commercial property market but it was a year of two halves. The first saw very little tenant or investor demand while there was an increasing level of supply of all types of property. The second half saw a real pick up in both tenant and investor demand and deals. There are signs that 2010 will be a little better than 2009. It is fair to expect though that this will not be a tide that lifts all boats as both tenants and investors steer towards prime property. NAMA added to uncertainty during 2009, but now that it is established and taking the transfer of loans, we hope the uncertainty will fade as its modus operandi becomes apparent.

“The IAVI has repeatedly called for a National Property Price Register to give consumers access to real-time, transparent and accurate market information. Providing timely, clear details and descriptions of price movements will undoubtedly improve understanding and confidence in the sector. This information is readily available and just requires the political will for its establishment. While we are pleased that it has been proposed in the recent ‘Programme for Government’, there is a real urgency to address this issue as quickly as possible,”she said.

Economist Geoff Tucker said the feedback from talking directly with individual IAVI members is that residential prices are either unlikely to fall any further or are almost at the bottom. It said it is quite probable that we will observe some further price falls during 2010, but it is fair to say that the bulk of the adjustment in prices has already happened.  Prices probably have hit rock bottom in certain areas of the market, while in others further adjustment downward may be required.  What is clear though is that there is unlikely to be any major uplift in values for some time to come yet.

Secondly, and most critically, he said there needs to be some indication that the economy is stabilising, which should in turn provide consumers with a greater degree of comfort over job security and their disposable income levels.  Once buyers start coming back into the market in sufficient numbers, this should start the process of clearing the outstanding level of unsold stock that will eventually restore supply and demand to equilibrium and allow prices to stabilise.

Report, Commentary and Survey (Word document)