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Markets News Monday: Irish M&A activity back to levels previously seen in early to mid 90’s; Shares rise in Europe and Asia
By Finfacts Team
Jan 11, 2010 - 8:46:32 AM
Getting ready to do his bit for Irish tourism ….singer Ronan Keating gets in the groove for his new programme on the British radio station Magic 105.4. Over the next three months the programme will promote holidays on the island of Ireland. Tourism Ireland’s Britain Manager, Lawrence Bate, looks on.
German car giant Volkswagen AG has reported a 36.7% surge in 2009 China sales to maintain the top position it has held for more than 20 consecutive years.
In 2009, Volkswagen sold about 1.12 million of its VW brand cars, up 32.4% from the previous year. The company attributed the rise largely to its popular new models, especially the Passat New Lingyu, New Golf, Lavida and New Bora, as well as its cutting-edge TSI engines.
Sales by its Audi brand rose 32.9% to 158,941 units while its recent arrival Skoda more than doubled sales to 122,566 units.
The company also sold 484 Bentleys and 118 Lamborghinis in China last year.
China's official news agency Xinhua reports that customers like a long wheelbase on their cars, indicated by the letter "L" in the name of the model.
"If the car body has not been extended to provide enough inside space, it's almost impossible for a luxury sedan to survive in China's high-end vehicle market, especially the official car market,"said Jia Xinguang, an independent car analyst based in Beijing.
"If someone is spending half a million yuan to buy a car, why choose a smaller one?"asked An Li, a 53-year-old civil servant who is considering buying a BMW 530Li. "A big car not only brings me comfort, but also indicates my taste and wealth."
German luxury car brand Audi has been the biggest winner with its long wheelbase strategy in China.
Changing remuneration mix
Financial organisations have changed the mix of pay, moving emphasis away from short-term incentive schemes in favour of increased salary, deferred compensation schemes and modified incentive programme design, according to a global survey by Mercer, the human capital, compensation and employee benefits consultancy. The sector is also changing the nature of its short-term incentive (STI) schemes, with more focus on balanced, risk-adjusted performance measurement and deferral of bonus payouts over a multi-year timeframe.
Mercer’s Global Financial Services Executive Incentive Plan Survey indicates that, in light of many firms having to seek financial aid from governments and recent regulatory developments, there has been a notable impact on remuneration practices. The data came from 61 global financial firms in the banking and insurance sector. One third of the respondents had received government aid in some form, the majority of which (82% of that number) had limits imposed on their executive remuneration programmes over the duration of that support.
Some of the blame for the financial crisis was leveled at executive remuneration practices in the financial sector and, in particular, the focus on paying for short-term performance at the expense of long-term sustainability. In response, over 80% of all firms surveyed have made, or plan to make, changes to their annual bonus or short-term incentive (STI) plan design.
According to Vicki Elliott, worldwide partner and leader of Mercer’s financial services human capital consulting network, “National regulators are attempting to make the sector consider risk more thoughtfully in their performance measurement and reward schemes so as not to encourage excessive risk-taking behaviours. Our data shows that the majority of participants are changing the nature of their pay structures and their short-term incentive schemes, including the way performance is measured and evaluated. The industry is moving in the right direction.”
This is not the perception in the US - - see links to related stories in Box below.
Irish M&A activity back to levels previously seen in early to mid 90’s - Mazars
Consultancy firm Mazars has published its annual survey of the Mergers & Acquisitions market in Ireland which shows a significant dip in M&A activity in 2009 back to levels previously seen in the early to mid nineties although the deal flow has stabilised, according to Enda Gunnell, corporate finance partner, Mazars.
“2009 was an extremely difficult year and this was reflected by the significant fall in the number of transactions. The deal volume was consistently low throughout the year and transactions took place at multiples far lower than their peak of a couple of years ago. A painful transition is taking place but there are signs that confidence is beginning to reappear which we believe will lead to more transactions in 2010,” he said.
The Mazars M&A survey shows:
There was a total of 140 transactions in 2009 compared to 276 in 2008 and 287 in 2007. This represents a fall of 49% on 2008 and a fall of 51% from the peak of 2007.
During 2009 there was an average of 35 deals per quarter, significantly lower than the 59 deals transacted per quarter during the second half of 2008.
There was a continued absence for the second year of large deals (valued at over €250m). In 2009 only 3 such transactions were recorded with an aggregate value of €1.6bn compared to 5 deals valued at €3.2bn in 2008. The largest single transaction in 2009 was the €630m acquisition by Johnson & Johnson of an 18% stake in Elan.
More than half of all deal announcements did not reveal the value of the transaction. Despite this lack of visibility on deal values, the raw data shows a very marked reduction in overall deal value from a 2007 peak of €23bn to circa €4.1bn in 2009. This suggests a drop of 52% in value during the year and a staggering 82% from the Celtic Tiger peak of 2007.
The most active sectors were Waste Energy and Natural Resources (24 transactions) and Food Drink and Agriculture (17 transactions). The Construction & Property sector saw deal numbers fall from 71 in 2008 to 19 in 2009.
There was a trend away from acquisition led activity towards an increase in disposals by Irish companies. Disposals to non Irish acquirers accounted for 29% of the total number of transactions in 2009.
The number of transactions completed in 2009 by major Irish corporates was reduced significantly. CRH, who have been the most active Irish corporate with regard to acquisitions over the last number of years completed €450m worth of acquisitions in 2009 which was down from €1.5bn in 2008 and €2.2bn in 2007. Their activity levels mirror the significant fall in the industry generally.
Enda Gunnell said: “The ability to raise capital and particularly bank funding deteriorated further during 2009 so it became incredibly difficult for companies to raise finance for development purposes. This has undoubtedly affected the levels of M&A activity. The funding multiples have reduced further, the cost of funding and commercial terms became more restrictive.”
“Transactions in 2010 are likely to be fuelled by restructuring requirements and strategic opportunities. It is anticipated that a need for consolidation and divestment of non-core assets will continue. MBO transaction opportunities will also arise but can only be executed once the bank lending position improves and with considerable equity backing," he added.
Irish Insolvency Statistics
from Declan Taite, Partner Corporate Restructuring & Insolvency, FGS
Summary of Creditors’ Voluntary Liquidations, High Court Liquidations, Receiverships and Examinerships by Industry (1 January – 31 December, 2009)
Industry
Number
of Cases
Year Ended
2005
Number
of Cases
Year Ended
2006
Number
of Cases
Year Ended
2007
Number
of Cases
Year Ended
2008
Number
of Cases
Year Ended
2009
Construction & Engineering
104
116
130
299
593
Hospitality Services (Bars/ Restaurants/
Hotels/Food
Processing)
64
43
47
109
214
Furnishings/
Interior Design
-
3
6
48
120
Motor Industry
9
10
5
25
101
Retail
34
39
52
36
92
Professional & Consultancy Services
40
18
23
43
91
Healthcare & Leisure
8
4
9
27
62
Clothing Retail
13
15
19
24
52
Manufacturing
21
21
8
34
46
Media & Marketing
8
1
8
12
40
Transport & Haulage
31
16
8
32
39
Information
Technology
32
17
23
25
36
Printing & Packaging
10
6
15
23
34
Miscellaneous
24
27
5
4
19
Security
11
9
8
7
18
Horticulture
-
-
4
5
13
Total
409
345
370
753
1,570
Wolseley
British building materials group Wolseley has announced that it has to sell its businesses in the Republic of Ireland and the Brooks business in Northern Ireland.
It has disclosed that it has sold thee businesses to a group of private investors for €26.5m in cash.
The deal covers Brooks, Heat Merchants, Tubs & Tiles and Encon in the Republic of Ireland and the Brooks business in Northern Ireland.
Andrew Leung, founder of Andrew Leung International Consultants, believes that the strong trade data out of China will continue. He makes his case to CNBC's Oriel Morrison:
Asia
Asian stocks rose and commodities gained after China’s exports and imports rose strongly December - - see link to story in Box below.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index excluding Japan Index climbed 1.1%.
Japan was closed for a public holiday; the Shanghai Composite gained 0.52%.
Bloomberg reports that Japan Airlines is preparing for what may be the country’s sixth-largest bankruptcy as Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama breaks with predecessors who bailed out the carrier three times in the past nine years.
The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009.
On Monday, the BDI rose 135 points or 4.49% to 3,140; On Tuesday, the index rose 140 points to 3,270; On Wednesday, the index fell 11 points or 0.45 to 3,259; on Thursday, the index fell 110 or 3.4% to 3,149.
On Friday, the BDI fell 9 points or 0.3% to 3,140.
Goodbody chief economist, Dermot O’Leary, comments: Economic View; Construction sector remains in the doldrums - - "Activity in the construction sector continues to linger at depressingly low levels, according to the latest PMI from Ulster Bank this morning. The index dropped to 33.1 in December, from 34.2 in November, and is now back to levels seen last May. Recent weather conditions will also mean that this weakness has continued into 2010. All sub-sectors - housing, commercial and civil engineering - deteriorated in the month, although it was the residential component that fared the worst, falling from 35.1 to 32.6. Given the continued low level of housing starts, this should not really come as a major surprise.
Furthermore, house-building activity is likely to remain weak until we see a meaningful decline in the stock of unsold homes. The amount of homes is difficult to quantify exactly, due to lack of data, but we have been keeping a track on the quantity of second-hand homes for sale as a proxy for the overhang in the market. Historical US data tells us that the stock of unsold second-hand homes provides a decent indicator of trends in the stock overall. Our most recent reading (from the property website Daft.ie) reveals that there are c.54,000 second-hand homes for sale across the country.
This is unchanged from January 2009, but we have seen a steady downward movement in the stock over recent months; it stood at 57,000 back in August. Mortgage transactions are at depressed levels at the current time; we estimate there were 25,000 transactions for both new and second-hand homes last year. At these rates, it would take years to work through the outstanding stock. However, two things must be noted. Firstly, the priority must be to ensure that the economy has a fully functioning banking system. Secondly, these housing over supply issues are very much regional in nature. Putting these together though, one cannot expect an upturn in the housing market in the foreseeable future. Completions may drop below 10,000 in 2011, a long way from the peak of 90,000 reached in 2006."
Discussing Friday's jobs report and what the nation needs to do to get back to work, with CNBC's John Harwood & Steve Liesman; Robert Reich, former Labor Secretary; Stephen Moore, Wall Street Journal editorial board; Victor Davis Hanson, Hoover Institution and Peter Navarro, University of California-Irvine: