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News : International Last Updated: Dec 21, 2009 - 6:20:16 AM


Global economy to continue to recover into early 2010 but outlook still highly uncertain says Economist Intelligence Unit
By Finfacts Team
Dec 18, 2009 - 8:57:14 AM

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Qatargas facility at Ras Laffan, Qatar - - According to Oil & Gas Journal, Qatar’s proven natural gas reserves stood at approximately 890 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) as of January 1, 2009. Qatar holds almost 15% of total world natural gas reserves and is the third-largest in the world behind Russia and Iran. The majority of Qatar’s natural gas is located in the massive offshore North Field, the world’s largest non-associated natural gas field.

Global Economy 2010: The cyclical economic upswing in the developed world will continue into the early part of 2010 and, apart from eastern Europe, developing countries will recover relatively quickly from the 2008-09 financial and economic crisis.

Ireland is forecast to be among the 20 slowest growing countries.

But according to 2010: country by country*, just published by the Economist Intelligence Unit, the pick-up reflects the impact of unprecedentedly aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus.

The EIU says in 2010 governments will face the very difficult task of trying to restore fiscal discipline while also ensuring that withdrawals of stimulus measures do not kill off nascent economic recoveries. The Middle East and Africa will be the best-performing regions of the world, with growth supported by increased oil production and investment in infrastructure. However, China and India will once again be the world's fastest-growing major economies.

Although we maintain that the crisis has already inflicted its deepest wounds, its impact will continue to be felt throughout 2010. Moreover, downside risks to economic stability still abound. These include:

  • The risk of new asset bubbles forming in the wake of unprecedented monetary and fiscal loosening
  • Deflationary pressures in highly indebted countries
  • An increase in the frequency and intensity of social and political unrest, given increased unemployment, weak growth and impending fiscal austerity measures in many countries

World growth league table, 2010a
(Real GDP growth, %)
20 fastest growing countries     20 slowest growing countries  
Qatar 24.5   Lithuania -3.5
Turkmenistan 11.0   Venezuela -3.4
Azerbaijan   9.5   Puerto Rico -3.0
China   8.7   Latvia -2.9
Uzbekistan   8.1   Ireland -2.5
Congo (Brazzaville)   8.0   Belarus -2.0
Angola   7.3   Estonia -2.0
Ethiopia   7.0   Barbados -1.9
India   6.5   Jamaica -1.6
Sri Lanka   6.4   Hungary -1.0
Madagascar   6.2   Chad -0.5
Iraq   6.2   Spain -0.2
Mozambique   6.1   Portugal   0.1
Liberia   6.0   Greece   0.4
Rwanda   6.0   Malta   0.4
Vietnam   6.0   Denmark   0.5
Burkina Faso   5.8   Iceland   0.5
Djibouti   5.8   Croatia   0.5
Lebanon   5.8   Montenegro   0.5
Bangladesh   5.6   Switzerland   0.6
a Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

2010: country by country, contains a concise assessment of the political and economic prospects for the year ahead for almost 200 countries, together with key economic indicators and a summary of forecast numbers.

Highlights in the 2010 edition include:

  • World GDP growth will rise to 3.2%, compared with a contraction of 1.2% in 2009…
  • …but 12 countries will still experience economic contractions. Nearly half of these are in eastern Europe, and western and Eastern Europe together will be home to fully 15 of the world's 20 slowest-growing counties
  • Qatar will be the world's fastest-growing economy for the second consecutive yearas three new LNG "super trains" come on stream
  • Japan will lose its place as the world's second-largest economy to China
  • Inflation in Zimbabwe will fall to single digits for first time since 1988, although this owes much to the arithmetic effects of the extraordinarily high base in 2009
  • The winner of Brazil's presidential election is expected to maintain that country's prudent macroeconomic policies
  • There is a growing risk that the state of Yemen will disintegrate, as the government struggles to cope with the threats posed by rebels in the north, a secessionist push in the south and the presence of al-Qaida

*Available from the Economist Intelligence Unit on +44 (0)20 7576 8181 or from the EIUr online store at http://www.store.eiu.com/ £395; US$635

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