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| Source: CSO
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The Irish Live Register total increased from 422,500 in October to 423,400 in November, an increase of 900. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 12.5%.
The total had fallen in October for the first time since March 2007.
January of this year has represented the spike in claimant increases in any month, with a record 33,000, or 11.3%, rise - - 26,700 additions in February, 20,000 in March; 15,800 in April; 13,500 in May; 11,400 in June; 10,500 in July; 5,400 in August and 600 in September.
The total fell 3,000 in October.
Finfacts reported in October that net emigration had recommenced this year: Irish net emigration for first time since 1995; 65,100 emigrated in year to April 2009 - - 18,400 Irish nationals left
In the year to November 2009, there was an unadjusted increase of 146,316 (+54.8%). This compares with an unadjusted increase of 161,727 (+64.5%) in the year to October 2009.
Other features include:
The monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted series consisted of an increase of 1,700 males and a decrease of 900 females.
The average net weekly increase in the seasonally adjusted series in November was 225, which compares with a weekly decrease of 600 in the previous month.
The standardised unemployment rate in November was 12.5%. This compares with 11.6% in the second quarter of 2009, the latest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the Quarterly National Household Survey.
In the month, the estimated number of casual and part-time workers on the Live Register was 39,322 males and 34,308 females.
The CSO says the Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment. It includes part-time workers (those who work up to three days a week), seasonal and casual workers entitled to Jobseekers Benefit or Allowance. Unemployment is measured by the Quarterly National Household Survey and the latest seasonally adjusted figure, for April to June 2009, is 259,500 persons unemployed.
Goodbody economist Deirdre Ryan commented:
Modest increase in November’s Live Register
Last month’s first monthly decline in the Live Register in over two and a half years confirmed signs that a stabilisation was emerging in Ireland’s labour market. While the latest data, released this morning, for November show a slight increase in the Register in November, the overall picture of the labour market remains one where conditions have stabilised.
The number on the Live Register rose by 900 in November bringing the total persons on the Register to 423,400. On an annual basis the rate of increase slowed further to 53% yoy, down from 62% yoy in October. Given that Q4 08 and Q1 2009 represented the worst in terms of the deterioration of the labour market, the annual rate of increase is set to slow significantly further in the months ahead.
Unemployment remains at 12.5%...
The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 12.5% in November, and has been around this level for five consecutive months. The brunt of the adjustment in the labour market has now taken place and the rate of additional job losses has slowed substantially relative to the accelerated rate of job losses seen in the earlier months of the year.
...likely helped by labour force outflows
A reduction in the number of non nationals on the Register has also been a feature of the data over recent months, although the breakdown by nationality for November will not be released until later in the week. In October the annual rate of increase for non Irish nationals on the Register was 72%, down from 89% the previous month and a peak rate of increase of 142% seen last April. The number of non Irish nationals on the Register has also fallen outright in each of the four months to October. So a more stable labour market backdrop, an exit of certain persons from the Register (those that have exhausted all their benefit entitlements) and a pickup in outward migration are contributory factors helping limit the increase in unemployment.
Unemployment may peak below 14%...
Given these trends, our estimate of a year end unemployment rate of 13.3% appears on the high side at this stage notwithstanding the fact that the unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly further next year. We estimate a peak rate of 14.1% although the risks around this also lie to the downside at the current time.
Davy chief economist Rossa White, commented:
Unemployment claimants stable over last four months
Live Register numbers up 900 or 0.2%
- The number of people claiming unemployment benefit or assistance in Ireland rose 0.2% in November.
- The total on the register is now 423,400, up from 422,500. But that total is actually lower than the recent peak in August at 425,300. As a result, the estimated unemployment rate has remained in the 12.5-12.6% range. The latest reading for November is 12.5% compared with 8.2% a year ago.
Three main reasons for stability in claimants
- There are probably three main reasons for stability in claimants in recent months. First, the pace of layoffs has slowed as the economy has begun to stabilise since the first quarter of 2009. Note that the economy will probably be only 1.5% smaller in volume in Q4 than it was in Q1. That compares with a collapse of 13% in the previous 12 months.
- Second, the number of non-Irish nationals based in Ireland has probably declined significantly. We know that inflows have dived (as per PPS numbers), and emigration is probably running at a similar pace (if a touch faster) as recorded in recent years.
- Third, the numbers claiming benefit may have slipped due to technical aspects. As Jobseekers Benefit (JB) runs out (in many cases after 12 months), some may not qualify for Jobseekers Allowance (JA) by failing the means test. Note that the JB total has dropped 33,000 since July, whereas those on JA have increased only 12,000 (not seasonally adjusted).
We do not expect employment growth again until Q3 2010
- The Live Register tells us little about net employment growth. We still expect the economy to bottom in Q1 and for employment to expand again with a lag of about six months.
