Bloomberg reports Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc underwrote more loans than any institution to Dubai World, the state company seeking to reschedule debt, while HSBC Holdings Plc has the most at risk in the United Arab Emirates, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

RBS, the largest UK government-controlled bank, arranged $2.3 billion, or 17%, of Dubai World loans since January 2007, JPMorgan said in a report today, citing Dealogic data. HSBC, Europe’s biggest bank, has the “largest absolute exposure” in the U.A.E. with $17 billion of loans in 2008, JPMorgan said, citing the Emirates Banks Association.

Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC may be owed $1.9 billion by Dubai World, making it the largest creditor outside the emirate, said two people familiar with the companies.

Davy analyst Stephen Lyons comments today: "The news of a debt standstill from Dubai World, the Dubai government's flagship holding company, yesterday saw markets plummet. Although the US market was closed, equity markets fell and credit spreads widened, particularly in emerging markets. The flight to safety saw the price of gold hit new highs, a strengthening in the dollar and a decline in German bund yields. The FTSE-100 recorded its largest one-day decline since March, with bank shares amongst the worst performers against concerns over exposures to Dubai.

The spread of 10-year Irish gilts over bunds widened to 167bps, up13bps, while the CDS for the equivalent period rose to 177.6bps, up 8bps. Risk aversion and renewed concerns regarding over-leveraged countries highlight the successful strategy that Ireland's NTMA has adopted with its fund-raisings this year, particularly its pre-funding to the tune of c.€10bn of next year's borrowing requirement. In addition, the Irish government's successful attempts at fiscal consolidation measures contrast with Greece, whose failure to tackle its deteriorating financial position has been in focus recently.

The government's recent pre-budget outlook noted a further fiscal consolidation of €4bn (2% of GDP) needed in this December's budget and a forecast budget deficit of 12% next year. Without this corrective action, next year's budget deficit would be as much as 14% of GDP."

Total Produce

Total Produce plc, the distribution spin-off from fruits importer Fyffes, today announced that it has reached agreement to acquire the assets and trade of Utopia UK Limited from the administrator.

Based in Spalding, Utopia is an exotic fresh produce business. It has a broad range of some sixty exotic products from almost forty countries worldwide and has had sales in excess of Stg£25m. The newly acquired business will be named Total Exotics.

Total Produce said the acquisition will provide the opportunity to further increase the Total Produce business and complement its existing activities in this specialist area.

Cowen on negativity

Taoiseach Brian Cowen has called for an end to what he called the "overwhelming negativity" about the economy, saying it was not in our national interest.

In an address at the Irish Exporters' Association in Dublin last night, Cowen spoke of the community spirit he had seen in recent days as some communities face a very difficult situation because of the weather.

He said this was an indication not only of our resilience but of of our determination to work together and rebuild the country.

Black Friday in US

Today, Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving Day, is generally the single busiest shopping day of the year in the US and accounts for nearly one-fifth of the retail industry's annual sales.

Up to 134 million US consumers say they may shop for holiday gifts this weekend from Black Friday until Sunday, according to the National Retail Federation.

That is based on a survey from 2008, taken less than two months after the collapse of investment bank, Lehman Brothers.

Asia

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 3.2% Friday

The Nikkei fell over 3%; the Shanghai Composite dipped 2.4% India's BSE Sensex 30 declined 1.3%.

Goodbody chief economist: Dermot O’Leary comments: Economic View; Sovereign concerns back, but Ireland has no near-term funding concerns - - "Yesterday’s sharp fall in equity markets seemed to directly stem from the evolving events in Dubai. More important than a possible default in a small state that resembled a casino over the last few years is the fact that it brings the issue of risk appetite for the sovereign debt market back on to the table. Such risk aversion was a major feature at the beginning of the year and was one of the reasons, along with a rising budget deficit and the bank guarantee, that spreads on Irish government bonds ballooned back in January.

There was an increase in spreads yesterday, with the difference between Irish and German ten-year bond yields moving out to 168bps, up from a recent low of 134bps, but still well below the 260bps peak reached back in January. Ireland was not alone of course; with a general flight to safety evident across Europe (the Greek spread versus Germany, for example, has risen to 206bps, up 40bps in a week). Fortunately, Ireland has completed its funding for this year and has already pre-funded over a third of next year’s needs, so will not have to go back to the market until the New Year. This is different to last year when Ireland had to go into the market to raise funding. One would have thought that Dubai’s fellow emirate Abu Dhabi will have to become part of the solution, but sovereign risk is back on the radar for investors for the time being at least. Ireland can’t do much about this. It can only continue to illustrate its willingness to get its own house in order."

Dermot O’Leary also comments: Economic View; The feast to famine in the Irish housing market - - "Data on the European construction market released by Euroconstruct this morning provides the opportunity to put the recent performance of the Irish housing market in a comparative perspective. For Ireland, it has been a case of feast to famine for the housing market. At its peak in 2006, when housing completions amounted to 88,000 units, output per capita amounted to 21 units per 1000 of the population, which compared to a European average of 5.6 at that time.

As we all know well at this stage, residential construction has collapsed since then, with completions likely to amount to just 10,000 units in 2010, according to Euroconstruct, an estimate similar to our own. If this comes to pass – and there is a chance that it could be even lower, this would amount to 2.7 units per 1000, while the European average next year is expected to be 3.1. In fact, Irish housing output will be the fifth lowest in Europe on a per capita basis in 2010. While this is a comparison of the flow, housing stock levels can also be examined from the data. On this basis, there appears to be some room for optimism, as the housing stock per head is some 7% below the European average, and in line with UK stock levels.

So what are the implications of these dynamics for housing output? Primarily due to Ireland’s young population structure, but also due to the previously high cost of housing, the average household size in Ireland remains relatively high. We expect this to adjust downwards as the population ages, but this does not happen overnight. As a result of the overbuilding in the early part of this decade, there is a significant stock of vacant homes in the country, albeit with the problems primarily located in certain pockets of the country. This stock will have to be worked off before we see an increase in housing output. This is unlikely before 2012 in our opinion."

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