The ZEW Indicator of German Economic Sentiment, fell slightly by 4.9 points in November 2009 and now stands at 51.1 points after 56.0 points in the previous month. This value is still well above the indicator's historical average of 26.9 points. In a separate report, ZEW said that in 2008, the number of start-ups in Germany decreased for the forth year in a row - - the lowest number of start-ups since German reunification in 1991.
ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) is the Centre for European Economic Research, based in Mannheim.
The economic expectations for Germany are still on a high level. However, the sentiment of the financial experts has slightly weakened. At present, it is still uncertain how private consumption will evolve. The gradually increasing price level and the uncertain situation on the labour market may dampen consumption. On the other hand, the continuous improvement of German exports feds optimism and strengthens economic growth.
"The upward trend of the economic expectations is interrupted for the time being. The surveyed financial market experts signal that they do not count on a strong boost for economic growth in the next year. It rather seems that economic recovery will proceed in small steps", says ZEW President Prof. Wolfgang Franz.
The assessment of the current economic situation in Germany improved in November. The corresponding indicator rose by 6.6 points to minus 65.6 points. The economic expectations for the Eurozone fell in November by 5.1 points compared to the previous month. The respective indicator now stands at 51.8 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the euro zone improved by 5.1 points and now stands at minus 70.3 points.
Some 287 analysts and economists participated in the November-survey which was conducted during the period 10/26 - to Nov 9th. The "experts" were asked about their expectations for the next 6 months.
Lowest Number of Start-Ups in Germany since German Reunification
In 2008, the number of start-ups in Germany decreased for the forth year in a row. A decline of about seven percent compared to the previous year resulted in only 206,000 start-ups. This is the lowest number of start-ups since German reunification. The situation was the worst in the construction and trade sectors. Economic sectors like engineering and metrology and control engineering still had a positive development concerning the number of start-ups. These are the findings of a current evaluation by the Mannheim Enterprise Panel at the ZEW.
The considerable decrease of the number of start-ups in Germany in the last year basically is due to two developments. The increasing economic decline in 2008 significantly reduced the opportunity-based start-ups. ZEW says these are mainly realised in a positive economy because it provides start-ups with better chances for success. There were no start-ups out of necessity in 2008. The crisis has first hit the labour market in 2009; therefore start-ups due to increasing unemployment had not been created yet.
Almost every economic sector has been hit by the decline of start-ups. In the manufacturing sector the number of start-ups decreased by ten percent. The reason for this mainly is the development in the construction sector which dominates the number of start-ups in the manufacturing sector.
Compared to the previous year, there were 15 percent less start-ups in the construction sector in 2008. Among the largest economic sectors, the trade sector had the second largest decrease in the number of start-ups. In comparison, the decline of start-ups in the service sector is relatively low. Among the few sectors with a positive development of start-ups were engineering as well as metrology and control engineering.
