Source: CSO

The seasonally adjusted Irish Live Register total decreased from 425,500 in September to 422,500 in October, a fall of 3,000, according to the CSO. It was the first fall since January 2007, when the total was 156,600, and may reflect a rise in emigration.

January of this year has represented the spike in claimant increases in any month, with a record 33,000, or 11.3%, rise - - 26,700 additions in February, 20,000 in March; 15,800 in April; 13,500 in May; 11,400 in June; 10,500 in July; 5,400 in August and 600 in September.

Finfacts reported last last month that net emigration had recommenced this year: Irish net emigration for first time since 1995; 65,100 emigrated in year to April 2009 - - 18,400 Irish nationals left

In the year to October 2009, there was an unadjusted increase of 161,727 (+64.5%). This compares with an unadjusted increase of 179,637 (+74.8%) in the year to September 2009.

Other features include:

The monthly decrease in the seasonally adjusted series consisted of a decrease of 2,300 males and a decrease of 700 females.

The average net weekly decrease in the seasonally adjusted series in October was 600, which compares with a weekly increase of 50 in the previous month.

The standardised unemployment rate in October was 12.5%. This compares with 11.6% in the second quarter of 2009, the latest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the Quarterly National Household
Survey.

In the month, the estimated number of casual and part-time workers on the Live Register was 37,273males and 32,087 females.

NCB economist Brian Devine commented: "The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate also fell from 12.6% to 12.5%. The PMIs (Purchasing Managers' Index) also improved in October with the new orders components of both series very nearly breaching the 50 mark. Our growth indicator based on the PMIs and past GDP figures is registering 49.9 in October. Both the PMI and labour market figures lend evidence to our belief that the economy will return to growth in Q4 of 2009. This is not to say that growth is here to stay, in our opinion it will fluctuate between negative and positive readings over the next couple of quarters. The medium-term sustainability of the economy will be determined by the actions of the Government in the December Budget as it appears from the tax take that the anecdotal pay cuts in the private sector have actually taken place. The Minister yesterday was quoted as saying that 50% of employees are no longer paying any tax and that the percentage paying tax at the top rate is down from 21% to 10%.

Bottom line: Unemployment is still high, the property market is oversupplied, the public finances are still a mess but the cyclical picture is clearly improving and benefitting from the bounce in global economic activity. We are more optimistic than consensus about the near term outlook -6.7% and -0.3% GDP in 2009 and 2010 but more pessimistic than the consensus about the medium-term prospects for the economy because the reality is that the fiscal retrenchment will be a multi-year occurrence and the property market is saturated."