Gold is trading at $1,059.00 down 80 cents Thursday's spot price close in New York.

ASEAN economies have ridden out the global downturn pretty well and are currently in a sweet spot, says Rajeev Malik, associate director and head of India & ASEAN economics at Macquarie Securities Group. CNBC's Amanda Drury & Sri Jegarajah find out more:

Davy chief economist Rossa White comments: Q3 disappointing for Irish goods exports so far - - "Yesterday's data showed that Irish goods exports remained weak in August. They slipped 6.4% in value month-on-month, but the volume decline was less than that (data are not yet available) because of the weaker dollar. Nonetheless, Q3 is shaping up to be disappointing for goods exports following outperformance for Ireland in H1. Elsewhere, the UK is the first developed economy to report Q3 GDP (thanks to its output-based estimate). It probably emerged from recession.

July and August were the first two months in which Irish goods exports dropped consecutively since November and December of 2008. Export value fares worse than volume in periods of dollar weakness: most multinational companies, which account for about three-quarters of Irish goods exports, price in dollars. But volume probably fell significantly in August, given that yesterday's data showed the value of goods exports down 6.4% sequentially. Note that in July - -  a month in which the dollar did not depreciate as sharply as in August - - value fell 6.9% whereas volume fell by almost as much at 6.2%. The volume of goods exports increased quarter-on-quarter in Q1 and Q2, outperforming other developed economies, but that run will end in Q3.

Expect positive news on the UK economy this morning. It is first out-of-the-blocks on Q3 GDP thanks to its output-based estimate. This has been a reasonably accurate first stab at GDP in the past, in the absence of the expenditure numbers being fully collated. The market is looking for quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.2%. That estimate looks conservative, looking at trends in production in the quarter and the strong PMI readings for services."

Goodbody chief economist Dermot O’Leary comments: Economic View; Export-led recovery will be led by services  - - "One of the stand-out features of the global recession was the precipitous drop in trade flows, particularly at the end of 2008 and start of 2009. Ireland, being an extremely open economy was expected to suffer more than most due to this factor, but, as it turned out, exports held up relatively well over that period. A glance at the composition of Irish merchandise exports provides the reason why this has proved to be the case. Over 50% of Irish merchandise exports by value are from the pharmaceutical sector. This is a defensive industry and, in fact, exports of this commodity increased substantially at the start of the year (+14% yoy in the first quarter). The latest trade statistics, released yesterday, show that this category, and export growth overall, has started to falter somewhat over recent months. In the three months to August (monthly data can be unhelpfully volatile), total export values fell by 3% yoy, which compares to 2% growth in Q1 and 3% in Q2.

Volume data are only available up to July, and show that in the three month period to then, exports fell by 7% yoy, relative to -4% in the opening quarter of the year. What is important for overall economic growth though is net trade. Due to the collapse in imports and despite falling export volumes, net trade will still make a very significant contribution to economic growth in the short-term. In volume terms, imports fell by 25% yoy in the three months to July, highlighting the degree to which the domestic demand has collapsed. We argued in our recent Commentary that an export-led recovery will begin in Ireland in the second-half of 2010. However, we argued this on the basis of only a modest return to growth (1.5%) in exports overall and a continued fall in imports (-2.8%). Service exports will play an important role in this outturn, as the evidence suggests that there is no boost yet, evident in many of Ireland commodity export industries. Sterling’s recent decline will not help matters either."

Goodbody analyst Anna Lalor comments: Irish Financials; Turner Review focuses on systemic banks and transition to standards - - "The FSA in the UK yesterday released a further Turner Review discussion paper, fleshing out its developing views on the regulatory response to the global banking crisis, with a particular emphasis on: (i) systemically important banks (for which it believes that “there is a strong case” for a capital, and perhaps liquidity, surcharge, while it also recommends “living wills”) and; (ii) assessing the cumulative impact of reforms to capital and liquidity rules being considered internationally. The FSA is conscious of the need to look at the possible cumulative impact of reforms to both capital and liquidity regimes being considered internationally. It recognises the direction that these standards are going and the need to reduce financial stability risks, but that the levels to be set and the transition to these requirements needs to be looked at in the context of potential implications for lending volumes and the cost of credit intermediation. In anticipation of new higher capital rules, the FSA believes banks should aim to build capital through non-payment of dividends or of bonuses.

While we see the Irish banks needing to be initially recapitalised to 4% equity tier 1 once the worst of the credit cycle has passed, we estimate that they will need to get closer to 8% over time (see our Fitch piece below for further discussion). Getting there too fast could lead to a slower economic recovery as banks hoard capital. In addition, higher liquidity requirements will put downward pressure on bank margins. In order to achieve a reasonable return to attract suitable equity investment (in the mid-teens), we have highlighted how the lending margins need to rise from the unsustainably low levels of recent years, although this will take time to feed through to the top line, given lower redemption of longer dated loans such as mortgages and the current low level of new lending."

Anna Lalor also comments: Irish Financials; Fitch commentary shows capital gap to be filled by Irish banks vs peers - - "In a presentation in Dublin yesterday on Western European banks, Fitch’s views were much in line with our own on bank capital and the credit cycle. Its analysis of loan defaults indicates that corporate loan defaults typically peak about two quarters after economic growth returns, while retail asset defaults (ex shorter term consumer loans such as credit cards) come later in the corporate cycle and are driven by unemployment. This is in keeping with our view of a continuation of the credit cycle for the banks on non-NAMA loans, with elevated credit losses in 2010, falling somewhat in 2011.

On capital and in the context of the pace of change in capital requirements, its graphics highlighted the relative catch-up needed by the Irish banks (albeit that the aggregates by country may hide divergence among each countries’ banks, while the Irish aggregate figures include Anglo Irish, which at its most recent reporting date had been given a derogation by the Financial Regulator on its Tier 1 capital ahead of the Government’s capital injection). Fitch estimates that banks, on its calculation of core capital, could potentially need a 7-9% ratio through the cycle (we are on 8%) with a 4% floor. Ireland (with the caveats mentioned above), is well below its European peer country aggregates at this stage, most of which are already in the 7-9% range.

This is further compounded by the large losses expected at the Irish banks (vs smaller losses or else profits from peer countries), which will further eat into capital levels. Obviously it is expected that the Irish banks will raise capital post NAMA (while we also expect AIB to sell its M&T stake), which will close some of the gap. However, the question still looms about how long the Irish banks can take to reach our 8% medium term target level when peers are for the large part already there, with a requirement to get there faster allowing for less capital to be generated internally, which could mean a higher initial base target than our 4% assumption."