The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry commodities, hit an all-time High of 11,771 on the 21st of May, 2008. From that time it reversed and on the 5th of December, 2008 it hit a low of 663 - -  close to a 1986 low.

The BDI slid 41% in the third quarter.

The index rose fell 49 points or 1.8% to 2,597 on Wednesday.

The Key Indicator of Global Trade  - - Tudor Davies, Motley Fool UK.

Crude oil for November delivery is currently trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) at $75.59 per barrel up 41 cents from Wednesday's close. In London, Brent for October delivery is trading on the International Commodities Exchange at $73.62.

Gold spot price

Gold is trading at $1,057.60 down $5.10 from Wednesday's spot price close in New York.

Goodbody chief economist Dermot O'Leary comments: Irish Economic Commentary - Recovery in sight; "We are releasing our latest Economic Commentary this morning. While we entered 2009 with uncertainty as to the extent of the likely economic contraction, focus has now turned to what trajectory the economic recovery will take on. We are more confident that a recovery is indeed on the way, which will be led by an improvement in exports. This is reflected in our further upgrade in this note; we now expect GDP to contract by 1.1% in 2010 (previously -3.7%), before expanding by 2.4% in 2011 (previously 1.2%). However, this will not be a V-shaped recovery; fiscal consolidation and deleveraging will continue to be a drag on domestic momentum in the coming years. Fiscal tightening of 3% of GDP is pencilled in for 2010 and 2011, while the unravelling of high private sector debt levels will be a slow process, with private sector debt levels unlikely to fall below 200% of GDP until 2012.

Given that Ireland is one of the most indebted economies in the developed world, by definition, it has benefited most from the collapse in interest rates. This benefit will not be repeated and will instead act as a drag on businesses and consumers going into 2011 in particular as interest rates begin to rise. For households, we repeat an analysis of debt in this note that we originally undertook back in 2005. Despite household debt levels increasing further over the past few years (to 175% of disposable income), our original thesis remains the same: Irish households are better able to sustain higher debt levels due to a younger population and low interest rates, but high debt levels increase the sensitivity of Irish households and the economy overall to interest rate changes, both on the way up and the way down.

Progress has been made in tackling the banking and fiscal crises. In relation to the former, an analysis of previous banking crises in developed economies since 1970 suggests that a quicker resolution reduces the overall net cost to the state. While the domestic banking crisis will lead to a net cost, this principle should be followed to minimise the fiscal damage. Outside of the banking crisis, the budget deficit is likely to remain high in the coming years. Despite not believing that the 3% of GDP deficit target will be reached by 2013, we have become more confident about the outlook for the sovereign over recent months. Government bond yields are down, policies have been put in place for resolving the banking crisis, a budget consolidation plan has been drawn up, funding is complete for this year and has begun for 2010 and recent rhetoric suggests that more focus is going to be placed on expenditure cuts in the coming Budget rather than further damaging tax increases. Risks remain but the outlook has brightened considerably."

Goodbody's Eamonn Hughes comments: Government releases NAMA business plan - - "The government overnight has published the draft business plan for NAMA to tie up with the Minister for Finance's second stage speech in the Dail last night. The main elements of the plan are as previously outlined though there is a little bit more detail, fleshing out the proposal, giving deputies further information ahead of the committee stage later this month in the Dail. There is a lot of operational detail and also some content around staffing levels, roles of advisors, accountability and reporting requirements, but we highlight some of the more interesting points below, including NAMA's estimates that it can turn a positive NPV. The basic working assumption is that the NAMA Bill will be enacted in early November.

In terms of incremental detail, the business plan highlights an aggregate 47% decline in asset values as its benchmark for the NAMA portfolio of assets and 50% in Ireland. The main geographic breakdowns we got previously, but there is a bit more detail on the European assets in particular. The business plan produces an NPV of its cash flow projections. Net cash flows by end 2020 are estimated at €5.5bn, with an NPV of €4.8bn (5% discount rate), so the plan currently envisages turning a profit for the State. The NAMA debt outstanding will be €54bn initially and will start reducing by €6.5bn per annum from 2013. Interest on the cash-flow generating assets (about 40%) will generate c.€12bn of income out to 2020 and it will pay out €16bn on its outstanding debt. NAMA is anticipating €62bn of principal repaid from the €77bn nominal value of loans, so a €15bn or 20% assessment for loan defaults or restructurings, though it is forecasting €4bn to be realised from the sale of underlying assets secured by the defaulting loans. It is also anticipating c.€2.6bn of expenses, netting at the €5.5bn net cash flow. To fully erode the positive NPV, NAMA's models highlight that the default rate would have to rise to 31%.

While focus was initially on determining the top 25 borrowers, the plan appears to confirm recent speculation that it will only be the top 10-15 borrower exposures that will transfer by year end. So by end December, it is targeting the transfer of €16bn of book value of loans. The target is 300 borrower exposures by end March (book value of €50bn) and all loans to be transferred by end June (book value of €77bn). The largest 100 exposures account for €38bn of the loan book value. It is estimated that undrawn commitments on loans transferring to NAMA are c.€6.5bn. NAMA determines where the borrower is in breach of covenants then it will not honour further funding commitments, though where loans continue to perform and projects remain viable, it will be in a position to make further funding appropriate, with a limit in the Bill of €5bn. Its all interesting detail, though is unlikely to have too material an impact on the banks."