An image of the planned new headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt. The construction is expected to be completed by 2011.

Australia's central bank on Tuesday raised its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points to 3.25%, saying it was prudent to gradually take back policy accommodation since the worst danger for the economy had passed. The rate hike coincides with commentary from economists at US investment bank Morgan Stanley, which sees a subtle but undeniable shift underway in the central bank community towards eyeing not only the end of easing, but the beginning of tightening. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its decision in a brief statement today, following its monthly policy meeting, making it the first of the G-20 central banks to hike.

Morgan Stanley economist Joachim Fels said before Australia's move that Morgan Stanley central bank watchers expect the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England to start nudging rates higher only from around the middle of next year, and the Bank of Japan to even ease policy further.  However, several other G-10* and emerging market central banks look set to tighten policy over the next 3-6 months, and it appears likely that the rhetoric from those who will remain on hold over that period becomes gradually more hawkish (less dovish).  This combination of action by some and talk by others may well challenge the prevailing post-Jackson Hole (site of the Fed's annual symposium for central bankers and economists) and post-G20 (the 19 leading developed and emerging economies) consensus that rates in the major economies will remain low for longer.

A little more than a month ago, the Bank of Israel became the first central bank to tighten policy in this cycle. The move was aimed at bringing inflation back into the 1-3% target band. While the BoI paused at last week's decision, probably in response to currency appreciation, MS Israel watcher Tevfik Aksoy expects at least one more hike of 25bp before year-end and more tightening in 2010. 

MS says it's likely that the next central bank in line to raise rates is Norges Bank in Norway.  However, MS Norway watcher Spyros Andreopoulos brought forward his forecast of a first hike from December to October last week, following the Norges Bank's statement that a rate hike was considered at last Wednesday's meeting.  With the labour market more resilient than expected and a strong consumer spending recovery underway, Norges Bank appears to have become increasingly uncomfortable with its current stance - - an impression that was underlined by Governor Gjedrem's comments that interest rates are now "extraordinarily low."

Joachim Fels included Australia among the other G-10 central banks that were likely to raise rates before year-end. 

Still more cutters than hikers, for now...Fels says it should be noted that over the next three months, MS still expects the rate-hiking central banks (Israel, Norway and Australia) to be outnumbered by rate-cutters.  The MS global team expects five central banks to cut rates (further) in 4Q. Four are in the CEEMEA region - Russia, Turkey, Hungary and Romania - where the easing cycle started relatively late.  The fifth, but certainly not least, is the Bank of Japan: MS Japan watcher Takehiro Sato is forecasting a further reduction in the already low nominal policy rate (0.1 %) to 0.05%, coupled with a commitment to keep the rate low for an extended period.  His out-of-consensus view is based on the rising risk of a deflationary spiral - - underscored by a combination of a Japan-style core inflation rate of - -  2.4% and yen appreciation - -  and the prospects for a major fiscal tightening by the new government next year. 

...but more hikers than cutters from Q110:While rate-cutters should still outnumber hikers in Q409, MS expects hikers to gain the upper hand from the start of 2010.  Only Hungary and Romania are expected to reduce rates further in Q1, while five other central banks are forecast to follow Israel, Norway and Australia into tightening policy.  Besides the Bank of Canada and the Czech National Bank, the MS team is looking for three Asian central banks to start a tightening cycle, namely the central banks of India, Korea and Taiwan.  Another seven central banks should then follow in Q210, including the ECB, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank within the G-10, plus the central banks of Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and Peru in the EM universe. MS then expects the remaining G10 central banks (with the sole exception of Japan) - - the US Federal Reserve, the Swedish Riksbank and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand - to join the hiking club in Q310, along with many more EM central banks including the People's Bank of China. 

More hawkish rhetoric likely...While MS expects most major central banks to start raising rates only from Q210, it appears quite likely that central bank rhetoric will become gradually more hawkish (or less dovish) over the next several weeks and months.  Taking their cue from such rhetoric, markets will likely price in hikes in policy rates, thus implicitly helping to tighten policy well before rates are actually raised. Fells says the economic data flow - - while indicating that the recovery has started even in laggards like the US, the Eurozone and the UK - - still remains mixed and inflation looks set to remain well below target for quite some time.  Also, banks still remain capital-impaired and, as the latest IMF Stability Report published argues, still have only revealed about half of their likely losses on impaired assets.  However, provided that asset markets keep rallying in the near future - - which is MS strategists' central case - - policymakers will increasingly conclude that this improves the economic outlook via the stabilising effect of higher asset values on balance sheets in the corporate, household and financial sector. 

...on rising fears about potential new asset bubbles: Moreover, MS says some central bankers will start to worry about paving the way for new asset bubbles and will therefore argue for earlier tightening than the outlook for consumer price inflation may warrant.  This has already started in emerging Asia (and Australia), where officials have expressed concern about real estate prices.  But it is also likely to become an issue for (some) central bankers in Europe and the US if and when markets continue to pace ahead.  To be sure, for now, policymakers are relying on rising asset markets to help establish a sustainable recovery. But the longer the rally in risky assets lasts and the more signs of a sustainable recovery emerge, the likelier it becomes that central bankers will move on to address the risk of a new bubble.  

Bottom line:Slowly but surely, the global monetary policy cycle is turning. True, the transition MS sees next year is only one from a super-expansionary policy stance to a still-very-expansionary one. However, as more and more central banks start to hike rates over the next 3-6 months and others - - while still sitting on their hands - - start to sound more hawkish, the market consensus that all will continue to be well on the liquidity front could easily be challenged in the period ahead.

*The G-10 central banks are the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of France, Bank of Italy, Bank of Japan, Deutsche Bundesbank, Federal Reserve Board, National Bank of Belgium, Netherlands Bank, Sveriges Riksbank, and Swiss National Bank. The European Central Bank is also represented at meetings.

Expect to see continued support for the Aussie dollar as the market prices in more interest rate rises in Australia, says Jim Vrondas, manager of corporate business at OzForex, after the RBA hiked rates earlier. He speaks with CNBC's Rebecca Meehan & Chloe Cho: