1988 - 2009

US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Data through July 2009, released today show that, although still negative, the annual rate of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved compared to last month’s outcomes. This marks approximately six months of improved results in these statistics, beginning in early 2009. Prices in the 12 -months to July are down -31.4% in Las Vegas; -28.5% in Phoenix and -24.6% in Detroit. On average, prices are back to 2003 levels.

The chart above depicts the annual returns of the 10-City and 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The 10-City and 20-City Composites declined 12.8% and 13.3%, respectively, in July compared to the same month last year. All 20 metro areas also showed an improvement in the annual rates of decline, with July’s readings compared to June.

“The rate of annual decline in home price values continues to decelerate and we now seem to be witnessing some sustained monthly increases across many of the markets”says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “The two composites and all metro areas are showing an improvement in the annual rates of return, as seen through a moderation in their annual declines. Looking at the monthly data, the 10-City and 20-City Composites and 18 of the 20 metros areas increased in July. In addition, both Composites and 13 of the MSA (metropolitan statistical area)  have had at least three consecutive months of positive prints. These figures continue to support an indication of stabilization in national real estate values, but we do need to be cautious in coming months to assess whether the housing market will weather the expiration of the Federal First-Time Buyer’s Tax Credit in November, anticipated higher unemployment rates and a possible increase in foreclosures.”

The index levels for the 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices, as of July 2009, show that average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to where they were in the autumn of 2003, From the peak in the second quarter of 2006, the 10-City Composite is down 33.5% and the 20-City Composite is down 32.6%.

In terms of annual declines, despite the overall improvement, all metro areas and the two composites remain in negative territory, with 14 of the 20 metro areas and both composites in double digits. On the positive side, Cleveland, Dallas and Denver are nearing in on positive territory with July readings of -1.3%, -1.6% and -2.9%, respectively. Las Vegas posted its lowest index level in July since its peak in August of 2006, resulting in a 54.8% peak to trough decline.

In the monthly data, only Seattle and Las Vegas showed monthly declines. Thirteen of the 20 metro areas had three or more consecutive positive returns; and 16 MSAs and the two composites reported monthly returns greater than +1.0%.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data. More than 22 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed here.