World trade volume rose by 3.5% in July 2009 from the previous month based on preliminary data, following a rise of 1.6% in June (revised down from a rise of 2.5%). The rise in July was the strongest since December 2003 - - almost six years, according to CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis today. Due to the unprecedented drops in November 2008 up to January 2009, world trade in July was still 15.9% below its peak in April 2008. In July, world trade was 5.2% above the trough reached in May 2009.

CPB says monthly trade numbers are volatile and focus on 3-months moving averages is therefore preferable. In the three months up to July, world trade was up by 0.5% from the preceding three months. This is the first rise since the three months up to May 2008. The recent rise is in sharp contrast with the record drop of 12.3% in the three months up to February 2009 from the previous period. Most noticeable in the three months up to July are the sharp rise in imports of emerging Asia (+7.3%), and the sharp rises in Japanese foreign trade (imports +6.0% and exports +13.9%).

Despite the further clear rise in July, world trade volume growth is still on a sharp downward trend, based on twelve months over the previous twelve months. Trend growth was strongly negative in July: -11.1%, down from the record growth rate of +9.6% in November 2006. Trend growth is negative since February, after having been positive for more than six years.

World trade prices

World trade prices measured in US dollars decreased by 0.8% in July from the previous month, after a rise of 2.1% in June (revised up from a rise of 1.8%). In July, energy prices dropped strongly (-5.9%). In the three months up to July, world trade prices were up by 3.7% from the preceding three months. This is in sharp contrast with the strong drops since mid-2008. The rebound in prices was due to energy (+35.0%) and other commodities (+12.8%).

World industrial production

World industrial production was unchanged in July from the previous month based on preliminary data, following a rise of 2.0% in June. The rise in June was the strongest on record (data series start in 1991). Nevertheless, due to the unprecedented drops in November 2008 up to January 2009, world production was in July still 8.5% below its peak in March 2008. In July, production was 4.1% above its trough reached in March 2009.

In the three months up to July, world industrial production was up by 3.2% from the preceding three months. The rise sharply diverges from the record drop of 6.8% in the three months up to February 2009 from the previous period. Most noticeable in the three months up to July are the rebound of production in Japan (+12.2%) and in emerging Asia (+7.2%), while US industrial production was still falling (-1.9%).

The trade database is available in Excel format here. 

Background on world trade series.