Source: CSO

Irish net emigration has resumed for first time since 1995. The number of emigrants from the State in the year to April 2009 is estimated to have increased by over 40% from 45,300 to 65,100, while the number of immigrants continued to decline over the same period, from 83,800 to 57,300.  These combined changes have resulted in a return to net outward migration for Ireland (-7,800).

The CSO said today that over the same period, the number of births reached a new high of 74,500 (not seen since 1896) while the number of deaths was 29,400, resulting in strong natural growth for the year to April 2009 of 45,100.

The combined effect of the natural increase and migration resulted in a population increase of 37,300 (+0.8%) bringing the population estimate to 4.46 million in April 2009.

The main features of the 2009 figures are:

Of the 65,100 people who emigrated in the year to April 2009, EU12 nationals were by far the largest group accounting for 30,100, with Irish nationals being the second largest at 18,400.

Immigration of all non-Irish national groups showed a decline, with those from the EU12 countries showing the greatest fall from 33,700 in April 2008 to 13,500 in April 2009, a decline of 20,200.

The excess of births over deaths has increased almost three fold since its low point of 16,600 in 1994.

The overall population increase of 0.8 per cent was unevenly distributed across the regions, with the Mid-East showing the strongest growth at 2.1 per cent and Dublin showing the weakest at -0.5 per cent.

Goodbody chief economist Dermot O'Leary commented:

Emigration limiting increase in unemployment rate...- New data confirm that although employment levels declined by another 1.8% qoq, seasonally-adjusted, in Q2, the scale of the shakeout in the labour market in the first quarter (-3.5% qoq) was not repeated. The QNHS data, along with the population estimates also published today, show that net emigration has returned in Ireland for the first time in almost twenty years, largely due to a large outflow of immigrants who moved to Ireland for work since the relatively recent Accession of the twelve new member states in Eastern Europe. This will likely provide the valve to limit the increase in the unemployment rate relative to our previous forecasts, but also has impacts on the supply side of the Irish economy.

...as employment continues to decline sharply - Employment levels in the twelve months to Q2 declined by 8.2%, after declining by 7.5% yoy in Q1. In total, employment levels have declined by 10% from the peak reached in Q3 2007. The unemployment rate increased from 10.1% in Q1 to 11.6%, which was in line with the information from the Live Register.

Net outflow of migrants for first time since 1995 - Two clear trends are evident from the new population data: (1) a continued healthy natural population increase, and; (2) the resumption of net outward migration. The year to April 2009 saw population growth of 0.8%, down from 1.9% in the previous year. A natural population increase of 45,100 in the year was boosted by the highest number of births since 1889, as the number of women of child bearing age continues to grow. On the other hand, net outward migration subtracted almost 8,000 from this number (first net outflow since 1995), leaving the annual increase in the population at 37,300 or 0.8%, the smallest annual change in the population since 1992.

NCB economists Brian Devine commented:

The official employment figures show that job losses in the economy continue to mount. However, there are some signs of stabilisation as the number of part-time workers is beginning to increase, a number of sectors actually increased employment and the more timely Live Register statistics have showed a slowing in the pace of signings on. The unemployment rate is currently at 12.4% and is likely being capped by emigration. This is the case because accession country nationals accounted for the majority of emigration in the year to April 2009 and they were heavily employed in the hardest hit sectors of the economy. This is backed up by the breakdown of the unemployment figure by nationality, which shows that the unemployment rate for accession country nationals was 19%.

Emigration by Irish nationals is likely to rise as other economies around the globe recover. Ireland, despite all its economic troubles, should be able to avoid the “brain-drain” scenario of the 1980’s as long as competitiveness can be restored, the government finances are mended and the country can assure investors that it intends to remain a fully functioning part of the EU. The assurances by the government over the last number of days that they are going to tackle current expenditure rather than taxes is a positive in terms of addressing competitiveness and the public finances, while the Lisbon Treaty vote on the 2nd of October will be important for all three.

Davy chief economist Rossa White commented:

Unemployment likely to peak below 14%; net outward migration for first time since 1996

Unemployment rate set to peak below 14%

• The Irish unemployment rate rose to 11.6% in Q2. That compared with 10.1% in Q1. We expect the unemployment rate to peak below 14%. In recent months the increase in benefit claimants has slowed, suggesting that the pace of firing has abated. But there is also evidence of accelerating emigration. That will limit the rise in the unemployment rate until employment growth resumes in Q3 2010.

• Some sectors that are exposed to improving international conditions showed signs of life. Accommodation and food service (a proxy for tourism) recorded employment growth in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, as did financial services. It is noticeable that public sector employment increased despite a 'recruitment freeze'.

Labour force will probably drop again in Q3

• Nonetheless, the Q2 unemployment figure was a little higher than we had thought because the labour force actually grew slightly by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (qoq) following drops of 1.1% and 0.6% in the two previous quarters. We expect the labour force to fall again in Q3 because the numbers of non-Irish nationals claiming benefit have declined slightly since June.
   

• Employment slipped 1.8% qoq compared with -3.4% in Q1 and -1.8% in Q4 2008. That makes it clear that Q1 was the worst quarter for the labour market.

Net outward migration resumes for first time since 1996

• For the first time since 1996, emigrants exceeded immigrants so there was net outward migration to the tune of 7,800. As these figures are for the year to April, they do not capture faster emigration recently.
   

• The turnaround in net migration was mainly caused by nationals from the EU-12 accession countries: in the year to April 2008, net inward migration from that grouping totalled almost 15,000; in the year to April 2009, it swung to net outward migration of more than 16,500.
   

• But the power of the current baby boom (births exceeded deaths by 45,000) meant that the population still grew by 37,300 or 0.8%. Nonetheless, that was also the smallest absolute increase in the population since 1996 thanks to net outward migration