Value Growth in OECD Trade in Goods and Services

Percentage change on the previous quarter and on the same quarter of the previous year

    Exports

 Imports

Merchandise trade volumes of the Group of Seven (G7) took an unprecedented drop in the last quarter of 2008 compared with the previous quarter, according to the OECD, the think-tank for 30 mainly developed countries including Ireland. However, provisional monthly data for January and February 2009 measured in value terms suggest a slowing down of the rate of decline.

 A. Volumes of Merchandise Trade (customs-based data) 

G7 exports fell 9.5% while imports were down 5.6% quarter-on-quarter in the final quarter of 2008. Year-on-year exports dropped 7.9% and imports fell 6.4% in the fourth quarter.

In the United States, export volume growth dropped 7.8% and imports fell 5.1%. Compared with the previous 12 months, exports declined by 2.3% for the first time since the last quarter of 2006. The 8.4% fall in import volumes accelerated the downward trend from the first quarter 2008.

Japan’s exports plunged 19.3% in the fourth quarter 2008, about twice the rate of the G7, while imports fell 4.6%. This pattern was also reflected year-on-year with a 20.1% drop for exports and a 6.8% decline in imports.

German quarter-on-quarter exports dropped by 9.0% and imports by 6.1% in the fourth quarter. On a year-on-year basis exports fell 7.8% while imports were down 1.8%: the first falls for Germany since the fourth quarter 2006.

EU15 Extra-EU quarter-to-quarter exports dropped with 6.3% less sharply than G7 exports, while the fall in imports was more pronounced with 7.3%. This pattern was also reflected year-on-year with a 5.2% decline for exports, while imports were down 5.7%.    

B.  Values of Trade in Goods and Services (balance of payments data)

In the fourth quarter of 2008, the value of exports and imports of goods and services in OECD countries, measured in current US dollars, collapsed to an unprecedented low, falling by a seasonally adjusted 18.6% and 18.5% respectively compared with the previous quarter. However, provisional monthly data for January and February 2009 suggest a slowing down of the rate of decline (see Section C below).

On a year-on-year basis, growth in the value of exports and imports of goods and services plunged,  by 11.6% for exports and by 10.4% for imports in the fourth quarter. In both comparisons, goods fell more sharply than services.