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Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2009 - 8:07:02 AM |
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| Source: CSO |
The seasonally adjusted Live Register total increased from 372,800 in March to 388,600 in April, an increase of 15,800. In the year to April 2009, there was an unadjusted increase of 188,850 (+96.6%). This compares with an unadjusted increase of 173,279 (+87.5%) in the year to March 2009. Casual and part-time workers on the Live Register was estimated at 62,000 by the CSO.
Other features include:
The monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted series consisted of an increase of 9,300 males and an increase of 6,600 females.
The standardised unemployment rate in April was 11.4%. This compares with 7.7% in the fourth quarter of 2008, the latest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the Quarterly National Household Survey.
In the month, the estimated number of casual and part-time workers on the Live Register was 32,986 males and 29,315 females.
The Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment.
It includes part-time workers (those who work up to three days a week), seasonal and casual workers entitled to Jobseekers Benefit or Allowance. Unemployment is measured by the Quarterly National Household Survey and the latest seasonally adjusted figure, for September to November 2008, is 170,700 persons unemployed.
Davy economist Rossa White commented: Live Register rises 4.2% in April: smallest per cent increase in seven months:
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We suggested last month that the first quarter was when we would see the most vicious pace of layoffs (fuelled by heavy losses in construction and retail). That is being borne out. In fact, it seems increasingly likely that January 2009 was the peak month.
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In April, claimants increased by only 15,800 or 4.2%. Both in absolute and per cent terms, this was the smallest monthly rise since September of last year.
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It compares with a 33,000 jump in January, 26,700 in February and 20,000 in March.
Estimated unemployment rate is 11.4%
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The Live Register of unemployment and other benefit claimants helps extrapolate forward the official unemployment rate between the releases of the Quarterly National Household Survey. It is a good, but far from perfect, guide.
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In April, the estimated unemployment rate was 11.4%. That compares with 11% in March and 5.4% in April 2008.
Unemployment rate to rise more slowly from here
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The quarterly declines in employment likely peaked in the first quarter and will slow steadily through 2009 and 2010. Also, the labour force is adjusting more rapidly for a given employment level.
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We expect the unemployment rate to reach 13% by the end of this year and to reach 15% by end-2010
Goodbody economist Deirdre Ryan commented:
Numbers registering as unemployed beginning to ease...
While the Irish labour market weakened significantly over the past number of months, there is finally some evidence, albeit tentative, to suggest that this rate of deterioration may be easing.
The latest Live Register show a (seasonally adjusted) increase in the numbers registering as unemployed of 15,800 in April, the smallest monthly increase seen in 7 months. It is also the third consecutive month that the number of new claimants has fallen, with April's total being less than half the monthly increase seen in January (+33,000).
...although unemployment touches 12-year high...
Nevertheless, despite these somewhat more encouraging signs, or perhaps less worse, in terms of the numbers signing on, the pace of increase in unemployment continues to rise. In April, the annual increase in the Live Register was 94.5%, up from 87% yoy in March. The unemployment rate also continues to increase and according to the Live Register touched 11.4% in April. This is up from 9.6% in January and is the highest rate of unemployment seen since Q3 1996.
...and is set to increase further in the near term.
Given that we had already assumed some moderation in the numbers signing on the Live Register as the year progressed, we remain comfortable with our unemployment forecasts. In this regard, we estimate the unemployment rate will stand at 14.3% by the end of this year and 15.3% by the end of 2010.
Lynsey Clemenger economist at Ulster Bank commented:
Monthly rate of increase on Live Register falls back for third month running…
As 2009 progresses, the pace of job losses is continuing at a fast pace, with essentially no employment sector immune from the effects of the significant economic deterioration. In the first four months of the year, the additions to the Live Register totalled 96,000, compared with a rise of 28,000 over the same period of 2008.
However, in the wake of dismal unemployment figures from the ESRI, some positives can be found in the Live Register figures for April. While the numbers claiming unemployment benefit rose by a substantial 15,800 from March, this represents an improvement on the average rise of almost 27,000 in the first quarter of the year. In percentage terms, the monthly rate of increase fell to 4.2%, down from the 5.7% rise recorded in March and 8.2% in February. So far, January of this year has represented the spike in claimant increases in any month, with a record 33,000, or 11.3%, rise. If the trend in the three months to April is anything to go by, January may well represent the worst month we will observe.
The total on the Live Register now stands at 388,600 (seasonally adjusted), up 94% from year earlier. If the monthly rise in April continued for the rest of the year, the number of unemployment claimants would reach 515,000 by the end of 2009, giving an unemployment rate in the region of 14% as forecast in our March Quarterly Economic Commentary.
Females made up a greater proportion of the monthly rise than in preceding months…
Males made up 9,300, or 59%, of the total monthly increase in claimants in April, signalling the shakeout in construction sector employment is continuing, but at the slowest pace since September 2008. We expect that construction activity will remain depressed in coming years, which will have implications for employment in the beleaguered sector for some time to come. Providing evidence of rising unemployment in the female-dominated services sector, the number of female claimants rose by 6,600 in the month, which represented 41% of the total monthly rise - the largest proportion since May 2008.
While today’s figures were somewhat better than we had expected, it is important to not lose sight of the fact that the numbers signing on will continue to rise in coming months, as job losses in the services sector, most notably in wholesale and retail and hotels and restaurants, are ongoing.
Unemployment rate to hit 16% by end-2010…
The Live Register estimate of the unemployment rate increased from 11% in March to 11.4% in April, a rate last seen in August 1996. A critical determinant of the rise in unemployment going forward is what happens to the labour force. We continue to assume a somewhat sticky labour force, given that the employment opportunities abroad are scarce. Combined with the significant fall in employment expected, we forecast the unemployment rate will hit 16% by end-2010. Today’s figures show unemployment will continue to be a major problem this year and next, but they also indicate that some of the extreme unemployment forecast of late may be unduly pessimistic.
