Source: CSO

The seasonally adjusted Live Register total increased from 352,800 in February to 372,800 in March, an increase of 20,000. In the year to March 2009, there was an unadjusted increase of 173,279 (+87.5%). The unemployment rate rose to 11%, according to the CSO.

The monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted series consisted of an increase of 13,900 males and an increase of 6,000 females.

The standardised unemployment rate in March was 11.0%. This compares with 7.7% in the fourth quarter of 2008, the latest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the Quarterly National Household
Survey.

In the month, the estimated number of casual and part-time workers on the Live Register was 31,384 males and 28,449 females.

The CSO says the Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment. It includespart-time workers (those who work up to three days a week), seasonal and casual workers entitled to Jobseekers Benefit or Allowance. Unemployment is measured by the Quarterly National Household Survey and the latest seasonally adjusted figure, for September to November 2008, is 170,700 persons unemployed.

Lynsey Clemenger, economist at Ulster Bank commented:

In the opening months of 2009, the pace of job losses gathered speed, as the sectors adversely impacted by the economic downturn extended beyond construction, into wholesale and retail, and financial and business services. In the first quarter, the additions to the Live Register totalled 80,000, compared with a rise of 49,000 in the final quarter of 2008. Ulster Bank, says at current rate of addition, the number of claimants could reach 550,000 by the end of 2009.

In March, the numbers claiming unemployment benefit rose by 20,000, or 5.7%, from a month earlier, following a rise of 26,700 (8.2%) in February. So far, January of this year has represented the spike in claimant increases in any month, with a record 33,000, or 11.3%, rise. While the lower monthly rate of increase in numbers signing on is certainly welcome, it is too soon to rule out a new spike in coming months, given the significant deterioration in the Irish labour market that we anticipate.

The total on the Live Register now stands at 372,800, up 87% from year earlier. If the lower monthly rise in March continued for the rest of the year, the number of unemployment claimants will reach 550,000 by the end of 2009, giving an unemployment rate even greater than the 14% we forecast in our recent quarterly.

Falling employment in the services sector will become increasingly evident as the year progresses…

Males made up 13,900, or 70%, of the total monthly increase in claimants in March - a clear indication that the employment shakeout in construction is ongoing. We expect that this will continue into 2010, as construction sector activity remains depressed.

Providing evidence of falling employment in the services sector, the number of female claimants rose by 6,100 in the month, and the total on the Live Register is now up 66% on a year earlier. Indeed, we anticipate the number of job losses in the services sector will accelerate in coming months, as sectors such as retail are further hit by the reluctance of Irish consumers to spend in the current economic climate.

Unemployment rate to hit 16% by end-2010…

The standardised unemployment rate increased further, rising from 10.4% in February to 11% in March, the highest rate since late-1996. Looking forward, we forecast the rate will hit 16% by the end of 2010, before beginning to fall back as the employment prospects at home and abroad improve. It is important to point out that employment lags developments in the real economy, so the improvement the latter, when it happens, will not coincide with a significant improvement in the labour market. 

Commenting on the figures, IBEC Chief Economist David Croughan said: "This further large increase in unemployment of 20,000 was not unexpected given the continuing fallout from the construction sector, the weakness of domestic demand and the difficult trading conditions being experience by business.

There was no comfort in the deceleration in the increase in the numbers joining the live register, which recorded increases of 33,000 and 26,700 in January and February, respectively. Mr Croughan warned that this reflected some slowdown in construction sector losses, but there were clear evidence that unemployment was now spreading out to all sectors.

"A continuation of the rate of unemployment increase recorded in March would result in close to half a million on the Live Register by the end of the year.
This underlines the urgent need for government to provide temporary enterprise supports to help viable companies to survive the recession and the competitiveness losses brought about by the fall in sterling."