In the month, the estimated number of casual and part-time workers on the Live Register was 17,073 males and 18,724 females.

Goodbody economist Dermot O'Leary commented:

Deterioration breaches records, again - From an already record pace, this morning's Live register data shows that the Irish labour market deterioration continues to accelerate. The number of people on the Live register increased by a further c.17,000 (a record increase) in November, taking the total to 277,000, the highest level since September 1996. The annual increase in the Register reached 63%, representing another record (surpassing that of October). These have already reached crisis point.

Unemployment rate at 7.8%... - Unlike in previous instances, the latest Quarterly National Household Survey, which gives the official reading on the unemployment rate, actually revised upwards the unemployment rate as provided by the monthly Live Register data. That official reading stated that the rate stood at 6.3% in July. Since that time, the unemployment rate has once again increased aggressively. In November, the unemployment rate stood at 7.8%, up from only 4.7% a year earlier. This move, once again, is another record.

...and is now on the way to 10% - In our latest Economic Commentary, we suggested that the unemployment rate would reach c.8.5% in 2009. Given the recent data releases, this is now clearly optimistic and it likely that the unemployment rate will reach 10% by the end of 2009.

Lynsey Clemenger, economist at Ulster Bank says Live Register figures add to the Government’s woes…

The latest Live Register figures add to the Government’s woes, in the wake of dismal Exchequer figures that suggest the 2008 tax shortfall may well exceed €8 billion. Following a record rise of 15,800 last month, the number claiming unemployment benefit rose by a further 16,900 in November. This is considerably above the average rise of 8,790 in the year to October, hi-lighting the extent of the deterioration in the Irish labour market in recent months.

The Live Register total now stands at 277,200, the largest number of claimants since September 1996 - in over 12 years. By the year end, this total will likely reach, if not surpass, the 290,000 level. On this basis, we see the end year unemployment rate hitting 8.2%.

Job losses in construction are prevalent…

The monthly increase in claimants was made up of 13,600 males and 3,300 females. Therefore males continue to make up a substantial proportion of the monthly rise in claimants, a clear signal that layoffs in the construction sector are happening at a strong pace. In the year to November, the number of males on the Live Register was up 74% on last year. The outlook for the construction sector remains bleak, based on our latest forecast of 20,000 completions next year.

The continued rise in females claiming benefits, the total of which is up 45% on November 2007, is indicative of the more broad based weakness in the Irish labour market. This was confirmed in the latest Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS) for the third quarter, which showed employment losses are mounting in the services sector, particularly in Wholesale and Retail, and Financial and Business Services. Going forward, we expect further job losses in construction, private and public services, and also in manufacturing. That is, no sector will be immune from job losses, as the economy sinks further into recession next year.

Unemployment rate to hit 10% by late 2009…

The Live Register estimate of the unemployment rate was 7.8% in November, up from 7.4% in October. Unemployment is therefore at levels last seen over a decade ago. The official unemployment figures are those which are contained in the QNHS, the most recent of which showed an unemployment rate of 6.3% for the third quarter of 2008 (Jun-Aug). The Live Register under-estimated the unemployment rate for the mid-month July, and therefore all months since have been revised upwards - hence the October rate is now 7.4%, from 6.3% previously.

The QHNS figures show that the labour force was reasonably static in Q3. We expect that it will decrease in coming quarters, but the numbers unemployed will rise at a significantly greater pace. However, given that the partial buffer effect of a falling labour force is not materialising to the extent previously thought, unemployment is set to rise at an even faster pace in coming months. Based on this, the unemployment rate is set to hit 10% by late 2009.

Davy economist commented: Irish benefit claimants spike the most on record

Benefit claimants surge at unprecedented rate as layoffs spill into all sectors of economy

• The Live Register trend in November eclipsed even October’s record rise in absolute terms. Numbers claiming benefit jumped 16,900 or 6.5%. That beats the 15,800 rise in October. In terms of percentage increase, only the monthly spike in January 1975 was worse.

• Claimants are up 62.7% year-on-year, the biggest rise ever. Private services layoffs are intensifying, especially in retail and financial and business services. That adds to the monthly flow of job losses from construction and related industries which will continue through 2009.

Estimated unemployment rate is 7.8%, but there are not 277,200 unemployed

• The estimated unemployment rate in November was 7.8%. Note that the Live Register does not measure unemployment. It includes part-time, seasonal and casual workers who are entitled to benefit. These people are not unemployed as long as they are in the labour force. The Live Register only helps provide an up-to-date guess, extrapolating forward from the official ILO measure of unemployment: the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS). The QNHS showed 143,500 officially unemployed in July against 226,000 on the Live Register at that time.

• Yet at the mid-point of Q4 (October as per the QNHS), we reckon the unemployment rate was 7.7% versus the 7.4% estimated by the Live Register.

Unemployment rate will breach 10% by end-2009

• We stick to our forecast – made at the time of the last QNHS – that the unemployment rate will exceed 10% by Q4 2009. 

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