New York resumes after Thanksgiving Day today and volume will be light as many traders will have taken a long week-end off.
The New York Times reports that today Black Friday, long the Super Bowl of shopping, is at hand, but it may have become nearly irrelevant. It says, check out the deals that were already on offer earlier this week:
Diamond earrings at Macy’s were chopped to $249 from $700. A Marc Jacobs bag at Saks, originally $995, fell to $248.45. And for men, a Ted Baker suit at Lord & Taylor was selling not for the usual $895, but for $399.99.
Such crazy prices are a sign of the times, and analysts expect many more such deals during one of the toughest holiday seasons in decades.
Bloomberg reports that Japan’s recession deepened last month as companies cut production, consumers spent less and fewer people looked for work.
Factory output fell 3.1 percent from September, when it rose 1.1 percent, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. Household spending slid 3.8 percent, the eighth consecutive drop.
Companies surveyed said they plan the sharpest production cuts in 35 years as exports decline in the wake of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Sharp Corp. said it may make fewer televisions and fire workers; Toyota Motor Corp. will lay off half of its temporary staff; and Canon Inc. has postponed building a 100 billion yen ($1 billion) printer cartridge factory in southwestern Japan.
The Wall Street Journal says today that Michael Dell's plan to fix the company he founded, Dell Inc. -- once the biggest personal-computer maker in the world -- is stalling.
Dell reported falling revenue and shrinking profits last week for its most recent quarter. And while profit margins grew, the gains resulted from painful cost cuts, including massive layoffs and decisions not to invest in launching products like portable music players and cellphones -- the kinds of gadgets Mr. Dell had described previously as building "brand lust."
The Journal says Dell has lost its low-cost edge as its rivals shifted to using Asian factories-for-hire to build their wares. Today, many of Dell's own factories, such as one in North Carolina that's only about three years old, can no longer compete on cost.
Dell is trying to sell off some plants. But in October, tech-industry analysis firm iSuppli suggested that Dell may actually have to pay other companies to take them.
Indian commandos stormed a Jewish centre in Mumbai in a bid to free hostages and fanned out in two luxury hotels in search for militants, more than 36 hours after terrorist attacks across the city left 121 people dead.
“We are in the final stages of operations,”said Army Lieutenant General N. Thamburaj according to Bloomberg. About 93 people were freed from the Oberoi hotel today and it was unclear how many guests or staff remained inside, police said. Thirty bodies were recovered from a hall in the Taj hotel. Bodies and blood were in evidence everywhere in the Taj, Navy commandos said.
Across Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.5% Friday and gained 6.8% for the week.
India's Sensitive Index fell 0.3% in Mumbai. The market was closed on Thursday.
The Nikkei 225 gained 1.7%.
Asia-Pacific - benchmarks
European stocks are down Friday with the Dow Jones 600 off 0.18%.
GfK NOP’s index of UK consumer confidence remained close to a 30-year low, based on a survey of 2,000 people between Nov. 7 and Nov. 16.
In Dublin, the ISEQ Index has risen 0.76%.
Anglo Irish Bank has fallen 5%; the other 3 banks have risen slightly.
Irish Share Prices
Euribor Rates
AIB Daily Report
Bank of Ireland Daily Report
Goodbody economist Dermot O'Leary asks today: What’s happening with Irish trade?:"With so much focus on the collapse in the domestic sectors of investment and consumer spending in Ireland, some tend to wrongly ignore the external sector. Ireland is, after all, a very open economy which can thank much of its success, in the 1990s in particular, to the embracing of globalisation. Unsurprisingly, external trade, both for exports and imports has suffered over recent quarters. Merchandise exports fell by 4% yoy in Q3, while imports fell by 10% yoy. More important for GDP growth though is the volume, rather than the value, of merchandise exports. In this regard, the data are only available up to August, but they show that export volumes actually increased by 1% yoy in the three months to August, while import volumes declined by 5%. The price of exports, therefore, is falling at a faster pace than the price of imports, i.e. Ireland terms of trade are deteriorating.
While we could go into the consequences of this fact on the economy for the coming years, it must be highlighted that this may be due to currency translation issues with the US dollar. Because many of Irish exports (especially pharmaceutical goods) are priced in dollars, when translated into euros (especially given that the dollar fell substantially and reached a trough in the three months in question) there are significant translation effects on the value data. In fact, taking the average levels for the three months in question, the dollar had depreciated by some 13% relative to the euro. The net effect is that export volumes have not suffered greatly as yet and net trade is likely to contribute to Q3 GDP growth. We wouldn’t get carried away though, given the trends in the global economy over recent months."
Davy economist Rossa White says Irish manufactured exports inch ahead: "It has been a tough year for Irish manufacturers, particularly those exposed to the UK market. Yet goods exports inch ahead year-on-year, fired by chemicals and software. Multinational firms did better in the last downturn of 2001-2002, and that trend is being repeated this time. It is clear that indigenous manufacturing firms are suffering in comparison.
Goods exports rose 0.4% month-on-month in September. Remarkably, in five of the last six months, exports have ranged between €7.1bn and €7.2bn. If we look at the volume data, which are only available up to August, exports have been growing 1-2% in the last three months compared with a year ago.
Foreign-owned multinationals benefit from their global scope and more varied financing arrangements. Certainly, this year's success story is the basic chemicals and software sectors, where industrial output has soared 7% and 9% respectively. It is a repeat of the trend during the last (brief) downturn for these foreign-owned enterprises. In contrast, one problem for smaller Irish-owned manufacturing firms is their dependence on local bank financing. Add that to recession in their salient market – the UK – and a much stronger currency. It is no surprise that final sales are suffering."
Davy analyst Niamh Hoare comments that UK Treasury to own 57.9% of RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland - - parent of Ulster Bank):"RBS this morning has released the result of its state-underwritten placing and open offer to raise £15bn of capital. Not surprisingly, given where the share price has traded, take-up has been extremely low (0.24%). This means that the UK Treasury will own approximately 57.9% of the enlarged issued ordinary share capital of RBS. Indeed, it may be required to make further investments as Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said this week that British banks may need more capital as the country heads for its worst recession in 17 years.
The RBS issue price of 65.5p, announced on October 13th, represented a discount of 8.6% to the prior day's closing price. However, the average share price in the interim period has been 60p with a low of 41.7p last week. Therefore, it made no sense for existing shareholders to take up the offer at the higher issue price.
Based on the recapped core tier 1 of 7.9%, RBS shares have been trading at 0.54x estimates of 2008 TNAV. On our current forecasts, the Irish banks are trading on price to TNAVs (Total Net Asset Value)of sub-0.3x pre any recapitalisation."
Currencies
The euro is trading at $1.2932 and at £0.8379.
For live currency updates, check the right-hand column of the Finfacts home page.
The US dollar fell to $1.6038 per euro on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 - an-all time record.
Commodities
Crude oil for January delivery is currently trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) at $53.49 per barrel down 99 cents from Wednesday's close (pre-Thanksgiving Day). In London, Brent for January delivery is trading on the International Commodities Exchange at $5270 down 43 cents.
Gold spot price
Gold is trading at $813.20 up $7.10 from Wednesday's spot price close in New York.
