World cereal production is expected
to hit a new record this year as high prices boosted plantings under generally
favorable weather conditions, the UN's FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation)
said today in the latest issue of its Food Outlook,
a bi-annual commodity publication. World cereal production is forecast to be
large enough to meet anticipated utilization in the short-run, and help
replenish much depleted global stocks.
But the agency warned that the current financial crisis will affect agricultural
sectors in many countries negatively, including those in the developing world.
Greater uncertainty
This year's record cereal harvest and the recent fall in food prices should,
therefore, not create a false sense of security, said Concepcion Calpe, one of
the report's main authors.
"For example, if the current price volatility and liquidity conditions
prevail in 2008/09, plantings and output could be affected to such an extent
that a new price surge might take place in 2009/10, unleashing even more severe
food crises than those experienced recently", Calpe said.
"The financial crisis of the last few months has amplified downward price
movements, contributed to tighten credit markets, and introduced greater
uncertainty about next year's prospects, so that many producers are adopting
very conservative planting decisions," Calpe added.
The report stresses that most of the recovery in cereal production took place in
developed countries, where farmers were in a better position to respond to high
prices. Developing countries, on the contrary, were largely limited in their
capacity to respond to high prices by supply side constraints on their
agricultural sectors.
Implications for the poor
The sharp 2007/2008 rise in food prices has increased the number of
undernourished people in the world to an estimated 923 million. Lower
international commodity prices have not yet translated into lower domestic food
prices in most low income countries.
"There is a real risk that as a consequence of the current world economic
problems people will have to reduce their food intake and the number of hungry
could rise further," Calpe said.
Long-term challenges
The report says that world agriculture is facing serious long-term issues and
challenges that need to be urgently addressed. These include land and water
constraints, low investments in rural infrastructure and agricultural research,
expensive agricultural inputs relative to farm-gate prices, and little
adaptation to climate change.
To feed a world population of more than nine billion people by 2050 (around six
billion today), global food production must nearly double.
Population growth will take place mostly in developing countries and for the
greater part in urban areas. A shrinking rural work force will thus have to be
much more productive. This will require more investments in agriculture,
machinery, tractors, water pumps, combine harvesters etc., as well as more
skilled, better-trained farmers and more efficient supply chains.
